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Did the Furlough Scheme and Mortgage Holidays Prevent Mortgage Default?

休假计划和抵押贷款假期是否可以防止抵押贷款违约？

基本信息

批准号：
ES/V015958/1
负责人：
Danny McGowan
金额：
$ 9.01万
依托单位：
University of Birmingham
依托单位国家：
英国
项目类别：
Research Grant
财政年份：
2020
资助国家：
英国
起止时间：
2020 至无数据
项目状态：
已结题

来源：
https://gtr.ukri.org/projects?ref=ES%2FV015958%2F1
关键词：
Did Furlough Scheme Mortgage Holidays

项目摘要

The Covid-19 crisis has inflicted serious financial hardship on UK households and their finances. By May 2020, 14% of borrowers were behind on their mortgage payments. To mitigate the economic damage, the government introduced unprecedented economic policies that provide income support and job protection. Lenders sought to help borrowers in financial distress by introducing mortgage holidays that suspended mortgage payments. To date, more than 10 million workers have been furloughed and almost 2 million borrowers have taken a mortgage holiday.This project studies whether the Coronavirus Job Retention Scheme (furlough) and lenders' Mortgage Holidays reduced the incidence of mortgage default during the pandemic. By safeguarding jobs and subsidising a worker's monthly wages, the furlough scheme may allow borrowers in tough financial circumstances to continue making monthly mortgage payments. The effectiveness of the furlough policy in preventing mortgage default may change over time as the generosity of support is tapered. Mortgage holidays may lower the incidence of mortgage default by allowing borrowers to defer payments until a later date. However, the limited duration of mortgage holidays (they are typically capped at three months) may constrain the policy's effectiveness and simply postpone mortgage default.The large-scale introduction of these support schemes is unprecedented in the UK, and despite their widespread use and the substantial costs to government and lenders, we understand little about their effectiveness. This research helps fill this gap and provides insights that help tailor the design of the policies to achieve maximum impact most cost effectively.To formulate answers, we use data from the Understanding Society Database (USD). The USD follows the lives of almost 40,000 individuals within UK households and provides information on individual and household characteristics as well as data on monthly income, mortgage and interest payments, mortgage repayment problems and whether a person has been furloughed and/or taken a mortgage holiday during the pandemic. Using the USE and an economic model, we estimate how the probability of mortgage default is influenced by whether a person was furloughed and/or took a mortgage holiday. This allows us to compute estimates for individual households that can then be used to make predictions about the policies' effects at the national and regional levels. This is important because the extent of the pandemic and its economic effects vary substantially across different parts of the country. We can also provide insights into how the policies affected borrowers from different backgrounds. For example, depending on their ethnicity, age and income. Importantly, we can tailor the model to assess mortgage default under different alternative policy designs. Our work therefore enables decision makers to assess the effectiveness of different future policies to maximise UK households' financial wellbeing and ensure financial resources are allocated effectively. This matters because the longer the pandemic persists, the greater strain it places on government finances. At the same time, the pandemic has affected different regions and demographic groups to different extents. It is therefore imperative that policies are designed so that public funds are spent well to keep the most vulnerable households and regions afloat.

新冠肺炎疫情给英国家庭和家庭财务造成严重困难。到2020年5月，14%的借款人拖欠抵押贷款。为了减轻经济损失，政府出台了前所未有的经济政策，提供收入支持和就业保护。贷款机构试图通过推出暂停支付抵押贷款的抵押贷款假期来帮助陷入财务困境的借款人。到目前为止，已有超过1000万工人被迫休假，近200万借款人暂停了抵押贷款。本项目研究冠状病毒工作保留计划（休假）和贷款人的抵押贷款假期是否减少了大流行期间抵押贷款违约的发生率。通过保障工作和补贴工人的月工资，休假计划可能允许处于艰难财务状况的借款人继续每月支付抵押贷款。随着慷慨的支持逐渐减少，休假政策在防止抵押贷款违约方面的有效性可能会随着时间的推移而改变。抵押贷款假期可能会降低抵押贷款违约的发生率，因为它允许借款人将付款推迟到较晚的日期。然而，有限的抵押贷款假期（通常以三个月为上限）可能会限制政策的有效性，只是推迟抵押贷款违约。这些支持计划的大规模引入在英国是前所未有的，尽管它们被广泛使用，给政府和贷款人带来了巨大的成本，但我们对它们的有效性知之甚少。这项研究有助于填补这一空白，并提供见解，帮助量身定制政策设计，以实现最具成本效益的最大影响。为了形成答案，我们使用了理解社会数据库（USD）的数据。《美元》追踪了英国家庭中近4万人的生活，提供了有关个人和家庭特征的信息，以及有关月收入、抵押贷款和利息支付、抵押贷款偿还问题以及一个人在疫情期间是否休假和/或休假的数据。使用USE和经济模型，我们估计抵押贷款违约的概率如何受到一个人是否休假和/或抵押贷款假期的影响。这使我们能够计算出单个家庭的估计值，然后可以用来预测政策在国家和地区层面的影响。这一点很重要，因为疫情的严重程度及其对经济的影响在全国不同地区差别很大。我们还可以提供有关政策如何影响来自不同背景的借款人的见解。例如，根据他们的种族、年龄和收入。重要的是，我们可以调整模型来评估不同替代政策设计下的抵押贷款违约。因此，我们的工作使决策者能够评估未来不同政策的有效性，以最大限度地提高英国家庭的财务福利，并确保金融资源得到有效分配。这很重要，因为疫情持续的时间越长，对政府财政的压力就越大。与此同时，这一流行病对不同区域和人口群体的影响程度不同。因此，必须制定相关政策，使公共资金得到合理使用，以维持最脆弱的家庭和地区的生存。