The impact of COVID-19 on unemployment and earnings inequality.

COVID-19 对失业和收入不平等的影响。

• 批准号: ES/V016970/1
• 负责人: Carlos Carrillo Tudela
• 金额: $ 28.27万
• 依托单位: University of Essex
• 依托单位国家: 英国
• 项目类别: Research Grant
• 财政年份: 2020
• 资助国家: 英国
• 起止时间: 2020 至 无数据
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://gtr.ukri.org/projects?ref=ES%2FV016970%2F1
• 关键词: impact; COVID; 19; unemployment; earnings

The current pandemic has left many sectors of the UK economy shrinking, with large number of individuals unemployed or at risk of unemployment. It is increasingly clear that the economic impact of the pandemic will persist over time, particularly in the worse affected sectors. The speed of the UK's economic recovery therefore depends on the extent to which the unemployed reallocate from harder hit sectors to those that are booming. More reallocation could make the increase in unemployment short-lived, boosting the UK's chance of a swift economic recovery. The UK Government has recently announced a set of policies to encourage individuals to retrain and reallocate away from sectors hard-hit by the COVID19 pandemic. Evidence shows, however, that the degree of occupational/industry mobility falls during recessions (see e.g. Carrillo-Tudela, Hobijn, She and Visschers, European Economic Review, 2016). This cast doubts on whether individuals will actually be willing and/or able to change occupations in this difficult time. Indeed, for many changing careers remains a difficult decision: do they wait for jobs to reappear in their previous industries/occupations, risking long periods of unemployment? Or do they accept available jobs, even if they lose their occupation/industry-specific skills which potentially means less job stability and lower earnings? This trade-off makes clear that it might not be desirable for public policy to encourage such reallocations as they might generate "low-pay-no-pay cycles" among a significant group of the population. Given that wages have been already falling since the financial crisis, as individuals reallocate to low-paying sectors, encouraging further reallocation could hasten this trend and worsen livelihoods. In this research we will first document how individuals search for jobs across occupations/industries. For this purpose, we will use newly collected longitudinal data on job search available through the Understanding Society COVID19 study. Informed by these data, we will develop and estimate multi-sector business cycle models in which workers' occupation/industry mobility decisions trade off their career prospects against the relative abundance of vacancies across sectors. This framework will allow us to quantify the effectiveness of e.g. job seekers assistance, re-training and job retention schemes on unemployment and earnings inequality through their effects on workers' reallocation and firms' layoff and job creation decisions. This will provide a new perspective to the current debate on how best to bring people back to work. To showcase our findings, in addition to academic articles we will make freely available an online "unemployment and inequality calculator". This tool will provide the likely evolution of unemployment and earnings inequality under different simulated policy regimes. Users will be able to analyse different what-if scenarios by simply changing the models' parameters that describe the aforementioned policies. In the background our models will be re-simulated to produce the desired output. This will inform about the likelihood of persistently high unemployment due to mass layoffs; whether the increase in inequality connected to reallocation to low-paying sectors will be exacerbated by the pandemic; and which policy measures could be implemented to reduce unemployment scarring and inequality.

目前的疫情导致英国经济多个行业萎缩，大量人士失业或面临失业风险。越来越明显的是，随着时间的推移，这一流行病的经济影响将持续下去，特别是在受影响最严重的部门。因此，英国经济复苏的速度取决于失业者从受打击较重的行业重新分配到繁荣行业的程度。更多的再分配可能会使失业率的上升变得短暂，从而提高英国经济迅速复苏的机会。英国政府最近宣布了一系列政策，鼓励个人接受再培训，并从受COVID-19疫情严重打击的行业重新分配。然而，有证据表明，在经济衰退期间，职业/行业的流动性福尔斯程度会下降（参见Carrillo-Tuelloh、Hobijn、She和Visschers，《欧洲经济评论》，2016年）。这使人怀疑在这一困难时期，人们是否真的愿意和/或能够改变职业。事实上，对许多人来说，转行仍然是一个困难的决定：他们是否要冒着长期失业的风险，等待以前的行业/职业重新出现？或者他们接受现有的工作，即使他们失去了他们的职业/行业特定的技能，这可能意味着更少的工作稳定性和更低的收入？这种权衡表明，公共政策鼓励这种重新分配可能是不可取的，因为这可能会在相当多的人口群体中造成“低工资-无工资的循环”。鉴于自金融危机以来，随着个人重新分配到低薪部门，工资已经在下降，鼓励进一步重新分配可能会加速这一趋势，使生计恶化。在这项研究中，我们将首先记录个人如何跨职业/行业寻找工作。为此，我们将使用新收集的关于求职的纵向数据，这些数据是通过理解社会COVID 19研究获得的。根据这些数据，我们将开发和估计多部门商业周期模型，其中工人的职业/行业流动性决定权衡其职业前景与各部门职位空缺的相对充足性。这一框架将使我们能够量化求职者援助、再培训和工作保留计划等对失业和收入不平等的有效性，通过它们对工人重新分配和公司裁员和创造就业决定的影响。这将为目前关于如何最好地使人们重返工作岗位的辩论提供一个新的视角。为了展示我们的研究结果，除了学术文章，我们还将免费提供在线“失业和不平等计算器”。这一工具将提供在不同的模拟政策制度下失业和收入不平等的可能演变。用户将能够通过简单地改变描述上述政策的模型参数来分析不同的假设场景。在后台，我们的模型将被重新模拟，以产生所需的输出。这将告知由于大规模裁员而导致失业率持续高企的可能性;与向低薪行业重新分配相关的不平等加剧是否会因大流行而加剧;以及可以实施哪些政策措施来减少失业疤痕和不平等。

项目成果

Cyclical Earnings, Career and Employment Transitions

周期性收入、职业和就业转变

• DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.4241581
• 发表时间: 2022
• 期刊: SSRN Electronic Journal
• 作者: Carrillo-Tudela C

Search and reallocation in the COVID-19 pandemic: Evidence from the UK.

• DOI: 10.1016/j.labeco.2023.102328
• 发表时间: 2023-04
• 期刊: LABOUR ECONOMICS
• 影响因子: 2.4
• 作者: Carrillo-Tudela, Carlos;Clymo, Alex;Comunello, Camila;Jaeckle, Annette;Visschers, Ludo;Zentler-Munro, David
• 通讯作者: Zentler-Munro, David

Unemployment and endogenous reallocation over the business cycle

商业周期中的失业和内生性重新分配

• 发表时间: 2013
• 作者: Carlos Carrillo-Tudela