School funding, pupil performance and crime: a quasi-experimental study

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Low educational attainment is commonly identified as a driver of criminal behaviour. However, there is little evidence to support a causal relationship between education and crime, not least because of the challenge of controlling for factors that affect both education and crime, such as childhood household income. There is a growing evidence base, particularly from the US, that increases in school funding not only improves the attainment of pupils but also affects non-cognitive outcomes such as crime. The study conducted as part of the fellowship will test whether two historic school funding programmes that have been shown to have raised academic attainment also had the effect of reducing the chances of pupils committing crime whilst in education and/or afterwards into adulthood. It will use the latest techniques of applied microeconometrics to identify causal effects to go beyond simple statistical associations of education and crime and provide robust evidence for policy. The results of the study may have wide implications for how we think about the benefits of increased expenditure on schools, beyond simply improving academic results and towards giving young people, particularly disadvantaged pupils, a greater stake in society that reduces the risk of them committing crime. The project will deliver rigorous analysis and engage policy and academic stakeholders from the beginning.