Presidents' Personalities and Nuclear Decision-Making in Iran

自2002年8月一个流亡的伊朗反对派团体披露伊朗秘密建造了两个核设施以来，伊朗的核项目已成为国际防扩散议程的核心关切。伊朗坚持其核计划的和平性质。但国际社会怀疑伊朗为获得核武器能力而进行的秘密努力，并采取了十多年的强制性外交手段，以停止其本土的核燃料循环活动。伊朗不顾制裁和不断加大的经济压力，拒绝无限期停止其核计划。这种拒绝被归因于伊朗打算保留潜在的核武器能力，以威慑军事袭击，以及追求声望、正义和独立。然而，人们不仅看到伊朗核政策的连续性，而且还看到了变化。在穆罕默德·哈塔米担任总统期间，伊朗同意在2003年至2005年期间暂时停止其铀浓缩活动。近十年后，在鲁哈尼总统领导下达成《联合全面行动计划》后，伊朗再次接受了对其核计划的重大限制。然而，在这期间的几年里，伊朗毫不妥协地加大了燃料循环活动，甚至拒绝在马哈茂德·艾哈迈迪-内贾德(Mahmoud Ahmadinejad)任期内暂停铀浓缩活动，甚至暂停了几周。这种行为的改变是我博士论文的重点。运用政治心理学的方法，我论证了哈塔米、艾哈迈迪内贾德和鲁哈尼三位伊朗总统在信仰和领导风格方面有着显著不同的个性。在一个详细的单一国家案例研究中，这些个性差异被证明影响了伊朗核决定的变化。这项研究挑战了美国新保守派和以色列官员经常提出的一种说法，即伊朗是一个铁板一块的独裁神权政体，在那里，所有政策结果都是由最高领导人的突发奇想决定的。基本的国家属性或政权结构不会自动决定一国的外交政策决策。这意味着，与普遍持有的观点相反，西方民主国家的决策并不总是一个多元化的过程，政策也不总是由非民主国家的主要领导人的个人偏好决定。我的研究生动地表明，伊朗的外交政策决策基本上是一个多元化的过程，总统办公室是一个能够影响决策结果的重要力量。一位温和而经验丰富的伊朗总统可以在采取合作外交政策、与国际社会进行建设性接触以及与西方关系正常化方面发挥积极作用。克林顿的双重遏制政策，布什将伊朗贴上“邪恶轴心”的标签，以及特朗普的最大施压政策--这些政策都是在伊朗温和政府时期实施的--只会助长伊朗的强硬派，削弱和解和缓和紧张局势的机会。我的论文可以帮助防止将来再犯类似的错误。根据我的博士论文的发现，这个奖学金的目标是撰写三篇期刊文章，以及在线短文和博客文章，以在学术界内外传播结果。这些出版物将一起提供对2003年以来伊朗核危机的发展、伊朗核决策过程、总统在决策中的作用以及三位伊朗总统的个性的见解。这些见解将引起学者、政策制定者以及所有对伊朗和伊朗事务感兴趣的人的兴趣。

Since August 2002, when an Iranian exiled opposition group revealed that the Islamic Republic had secretly built two nuclear facilities, Iran's nuclear program has become a central concern of the international non-proliferation agenda. Iran insists on the peaceful nature of its nuclear program. But the international community has suspected a covert effort by Iran to acquire a nuclear arms capability, and employed over a decade of coercive diplomacy to bring its indigenous nuclear fuel cycle activities to a halt. Iran refused to indefinitely halt its nuclear program despite sanctions and mounting economic pressure. This refusal has been attributed to the country's intention to retain a latent nuclear weapons capability as deterrent against military attacks, as well as the pursuit of prestigious, justice and independence.However, one does not only observe continuity in Iran's nuclear policies, but also change. Under the presidency of Mohammad Khatami, Iran agreed to temporarily suspend its enrichment activities between 2003 and 2005. Once again, Iran accepted significant limits on its nuclear program following the conclusion of the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) almost a decade later under President Rouhani. For several years in between though, Iran uncompromisingly ramped up its fuel cycle activities, rejecting even weeks long moratorium on uranium enrichment, coinciding with the tenure of Mahmoud Ahmadinejad. This change in behaviour is the focus of my PhD thesis. Using the methods of political psychology, I demonstrate that the three Iranian presidents Khatami, Ahmadinejad, and Rouhani have significantly different personalities in terms of their beliefs and leadership styles. In a detailed single-country case study, these differences in personalities are shown to have impacted the change in Iran's nuclear decisions. This research challenges the narrative, often presented by American neo-conservatives and Israeli officials, that Iran is a monolithic and dictatorial theocracy, where alone the whims of the Supreme Leader dictate all policy outcomes. Basic national attributes or regime structure do not automatically determine the foreign policy decision-making in a country. This means that contrary to the commonly held view, decision-making in Western democracies is not always a pluralistic process, neither are policies always determined by a predominant leader's personal predispositions in non-democratic countries. My research vividly demonstrates that foreign policy decision-making in Iran is mostly a pluralistic process, with the office of presidency a significant force that can impact decision outcomes. A moderate and seasoned Iranian president can play a positive role in adopting cooperative foreign policies, constructive engagement with the international community, and normalising relations with the West. Policies such as Clinton's dual containment policies, Bush's labelling Iran as a member of the "axis of evils", and Trump's maximum pressure policy -- all implemented at a time of moderate Iranian administrations -- only boosted Iran's hardliners and undermined the chances of rapprochement and de-escalation of tensions. My thesis can help prevent similar mistakes being made in the future.Drawing on the findings of my PhD thesis, this fellowship aims to produce three journal articles, as well as short online pieces and blog posts to disseminate the results within and beyond academia. Together, these publications will provide insights into the development of Iran nuclear crisis since 2003, the process of nuclear decision-making in Iran, the role of the presidency in decision-making, and the personalities of three Iranian presidents. These insights will be of interest to academics, policymakers, and all those interested in Iran and Iranian affairs.