The effects of voter ID in the UK

英国2022年选举法将在英格兰、苏格兰和威尔士的大选中，以及从2023年5月起在英格兰的所有地方选举中，为亲自投票引入强制性的照片选民身份证。这项改革将首次规定，在英国大选中行使投票权必须出示带照片的身份证。政府研究表明，目前9%的英国选民没有合格的身份证。这是一个潜在的后果和有争议的变化，构成了更广泛的国际趋势的一部分（例如，美国、印度）。它的支持者认为，选民身份证打击选举舞弊，并增加选民对选举的信心。它的反对者认为，在没有像英国这样的国家身份证的情况下，它会抑制选举参与，平等，并在一系列不太可能拥有身份证的选民群体中对选举公平性的信任。关于选民身份证影响的研究具有相互矛盾的发现，并且主要集中在美国（Alvarez et al 2021，Atkeson et al 2010，Atkeson et al 2014，Grimmer et al 2018，Hanjal et al 2017，Stuart III et al 2016，Valentino & Neuner 2017）。在美国，最近在多个州引入了严格的选民身份法，伴随着公众话语中对选举诚信和公平的担忧日益突出。然而，来自美国背景的研究结果具有有限的普遍性，因为在美国，对选民身份的反应是由种族的政治突出性和政治极化程度所决定的，这并不适用于其他发达民主国家（Wilson & Rosenbluth 2014）。此外，在关于选民身份证影响的研究中，因果关系确定的研究设计很少，这使得很难得出可靠的结论（Highton 2017，Burden 2018，Grimmer et al 2018）.AimsThis项目研究了英国引入强制性照片身份证对选民行为和态度的影响。它结合了（i）原始调查，研究选民身份证的影响，因为它在英国地方选举和下一届英国大选的背景下在真实的时间展开（可能在2024年或2025年举行），分析历史数据对北方爱尔兰在21世纪初引入选民身份证的影响，及（iii）2018年及2019年的英国选民证试验。ObjectivesThe项目的学术和政策目标是：（一）提供第一个全面的研究选民身份证在任何发达的民主国家的影响在地方和国家一级。(ii)为了促进政治科学的选民身份证在英国，在其本身的权利，一个重要的情况下的影响的理解，和一个国家的结论更有可能推广到其他发达民主国家比从美国。(iii)对于英国政治专家来说，这是英国第一次也是唯一一次对选民身份证进行的研究，该研究采用了一种可以确定改革因果影响的研究设计。(iv)对于联合王国政府、议会和选举委员会，该项目提供了及时和政治上公正的证据，证明选民身份证的效果（请参见支持案例，第7节）。影响”）。

The UK 2022 Elections Act will introduce mandatory photographic voter ID for in-person voting in England, Scotland, and Wales in general elections, and also in all local elections in England from May 2023. The reform will, for the first time, make the exercise of the right to vote in UK general elections conditional on the presentation of photo ID. Government research suggests that 9 per cent of UK voters do not currently have eligible identification. This is a potentially consequential and contentious change that forms part of a wider international trend (e.g., US, India). Its proponents argue that voter ID combats electoral fraud and increases voter confidence in elections. Its opponents argue that, in contexts without national ID like the UK, it depresses electoral participation, equality, and trust in electoral fairness across a range of voter groups who are less likely to possess ID. ContextScientifically, the effects of voter ID remain poorly understood. Studies of the effects of voter ID feature contradictory findings and focus overwhelmingly on the US (Alvarez et al 2021, Atkeson et al 2010, Atkeson et al 2014, Grimmer et al 2018, Hanjal et al 2017, Stuart III et al 2016, Valentino & Neuner 2017). In the US, the recent introduction of strict voter ID laws in multiple states is accompanied by the increasing salience of concerns about electoral integrity and fairness in the public discourse. However, findings derived from the US context are of limited generalizability because responses to voter ID in the US are shaped by the political salience of race and a level of political polarization that does not apply to other developed democracies (Wilson & Rosenbluth 2014). Moreover, causally identified research designs are rare in studies of the effects of voter ID, which makes it difficult to draw robust conclusions (Highton 2017, Burden 2018, Grimmer et al 2018).AimsThis project studies the effects on voters' behaviour and attitudes of the introduction of mandatory photo ID in the UK. It combines (i) original surveys that examine the effect of voter ID as it unfolds in real time in the context of English local elections and the next UK general election (likely to be held in 2024 or 2025) with the analysis of historical data on the effects of the introduction of voter ID in (i) Northern Ireland in the early 2000s, and (iii) the English voter ID trials of 2018 and 2019. ObjectivesThe project's academic and policy objectives are: (i) To deliver the first comprehensive study of the effects of voter ID in any developed democracy on the local and national level. (ii) To contribute to political science an understanding of the effects of voter ID in the UK, a case of importance in its own right, and a country from which conclusions are more likely to generalize to other developed democracies than from the US. (iii) For experts of British politics, this is the first and only study of voter ID in the UK which employs a research design that can identify the causal effects of the reform. (iv) For the UK Government, Parliament, and the Electoral Commission, the project provides timely and politically impartial evidence of the effect of voter ID (please see Case for Support, section "7. Impact").