UNDPOLAR: Threat, identity, and dissent: Understanding and addressing political polarization in European democracies

在许多欧洲国家，公众舆论在移民、不平等、民粹主义和对机构的信任等问题上两极分化。虽然每个问题都有一个扩展的文献，但迫切需要整合。对这些问题的看法是否相关？如果是，是什么把它们联系在一起？不同群体的人是否在不同的问题上和/或为不同的背叛而争吵？我们的第一个目标是确定身份和威胁如何联合收割机产生多极化的态度。首先，我们使用相关类分析的新技术来识别具有独特信仰系统的亚群，包括威胁，身份和极化态度。这些分析之后是实验，测试身份和威胁的因果效应，以及这些效应在不同信仰体系的亚群之间的差异。我们的第二个目标是比较不同国家和不同时期信仰体系的亚群。因此，信仰体系的跨国差异将与政治格局的变化有关（例如，政治极化），以及社会结构国家特征的差异（例如，不平等和精英主义信仰）。我们将纵向考察金融危机对信仰体系的影响。至关重要的是，识别具有不同信仰体系的亚群不仅有助于理解两极分化，还有助于识别解决方案，而解决方案预计会因信仰体系而异。民主创新，如公民论坛已经发展到克服两极分化。我们将测试是否使用我们对威胁和身份的洞察力可以使一个更有效的。

In many European countries public opinion is polarized on issues such as immigration, inequality,populism, and trust in institutions. Although for each issue there is an extended literature, there isa pressing need for integration. Are opinions on these issues related and, if so, what is the gluethat binds them? Do different groups of people polarize on different issues and/or for differentreasons?Our first objective is to determine how identities and threat combine to generate multiplepolarized attitudes. First, we use the novel technique of correlational class analysis to identifysubpopulations with unique belief systems, consisting of threats, identities, and polarizedattitudes. These analyses are followed by experiments that test causal effects of identities andthreats, and how these may differ between subpopulations with different belief systems.Our second objective is to compare subpopulations of belief systems across countries and overtime. Therefore, cross-country differences in belief systems will be related to variation in thepolitical landscape (e.g., political polarisation), and differences in social structural countrycharacteristics (e.g., inequality and meritocratic beliefs). Longitudinally we will examine theimpact of the financial crisis on belief systems.Crucially, identifying subpopulations with different belief systems will help not only inunderstanding polarisation, but also in identifying solutions, which are expected to differdepending on the belief system. Democratic innovations such as citizen fora have been developedto overcome polarisation. We will test whether using our insights on threats and identity can makesuch fora more effective.