UNDPOLAR: Threat, identity, and dissent: Understanding and addressing political polarization in European democracies

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In many European countries public opinion is polarized on issues such as immigration, inequality,populism, and trust in institutions. Although for each issue there is an extended literature, there isa pressing need for integration. Are opinions on these issues related and, if so, what is the gluethat binds them? Do different groups of people polarize on different issues and/or for differentreasons?Our first objective is to determine how identities and threat combine to generate multiplepolarized attitudes. First, we use the novel technique of correlational class analysis to identifysubpopulations with unique belief systems, consisting of threats, identities, and polarizedattitudes. These analyses are followed by experiments that test causal effects of identities andthreats, and how these may differ between subpopulations with different belief systems.Our second objective is to compare subpopulations of belief systems across countries and overtime. Therefore, cross-country differences in belief systems will be related to variation in thepolitical landscape (e.g., political polarisation), and differences in social structural countrycharacteristics (e.g., inequality and meritocratic beliefs). Longitudinally we will examine theimpact of the financial crisis on belief systems.Crucially, identifying subpopulations with different belief systems will help not only inunderstanding polarisation, but also in identifying solutions, which are expected to differdepending on the belief system. Democratic innovations such as citizen fora have been developedto overcome polarisation. We will test whether using our insights on threats and identity can makesuch fora more effective.