DEFRA Embedding Economics into the Fourth UK Climate Change Risk Assessment

DEFRA 将经济学纳入第四次英国气候变化风险评估

• 批准号: ES/Y005236/1
• 负责人: Harald Heubaum
• 金额: $ 15.6万
• 依托单位: School of Oriental and African Studies
• 依托单位国家: 英国
• 项目类别: Fellowship
• 财政年份: 2024
• 资助国家: 英国
• 起止时间: 2024 至 无数据
• 项目状态: 未结题
• 来源: https://gtr.ukri.org/projects?ref=ES%2FY005236%2F1
• 关键词: DEFRA; Embedding; Economics; into; Fourth

The aim of this research project is to ensure and improve the embedding of economic and social research methods in government-led climate risk assessments and maximise the impact of adaptation actions undertaken in the UK. There is currently significant under-investment in climate change adaptation and resilience-building, both in the UK and globally. As a consequence, the high benefits of such interventions are not realized. Drivers of this under-investment include a lack of full information on risks, on the costs of addressing those risks, and on the complete benefits of doing so. Understanding costs and considering the full range of benefits of adaptation and resilience-building interventions can enable governments, international financial institutions and the private sector to make better investment decisions and close the financing gap. Building on previous work showing that the full benefits of many types of adaptation investments are far greater than often assumed - and largely accrue even if extreme events against which they protect do not occur - the research undertaken during this fellowship is intended to support the UK's fourth Climate Change Risk Assessment (CCRA4) by incorporating expanded and improved cost-benefit analysis (CBA) - both ex-ante and ex-post - for adaptation and resilience-building. I intend to supplement this with multi-criteria analysis and ex-post impact analysis/ evaluation. Importantly, I intend to put at the heart of my work a triple dividend approach into economic and financial assessments which can help facilitate a scaling up of adaptation investments. CBA is widely applied across the public and private sectors as well as by international financial institutions (IFIs) to conduct ex-ante appraisal and ex-post impact assessments of interventions. The quality of CBA conducted within govenment and in IFIs (e.g., the World Bank) has declined over the past two decades due to challenges around data availability, the presence of intangible benefits, and a lack of methodological expertise. Yet its use is resurging due to its central role in project appraisals and impact assessments and in valuing externalities such as carbon emissions (using the social cost of carbon). The triple dividend of resilience (TDR) approach uses CBA to improve benefits estimates of adaptation investments. The TDR accounts for and quantifies the full economic, environmental, and social benefits of climate change adaptation. It groups benefits along three dividends: avoided losses (first dividend), induced economic or development benefits (second dividend), and additional social and environmental benefits (third dividend) of adaptation actions. The second and third dividends are especially important since they accrue regardless of whether the actual climate risk materializes. Research by Heubaum et al. (2021) has shown that the quantification of these benefits leads to benefit-cost ratios (BCRs) far greater than commonly assumed. An assessment of risk which better quantifies and makes visible the many benefits of intervention can help government adress the continued imbalance between climate mitigation and adaptation investments, and justify the use of limited resources to catalyze private sector investment. Heubaum, H. et al. (2022). The Triple Dividend of Building Climate Resilience: Taking Stock, Moving Forward. WRI Working Paper. Washington, D.C.: World Resources Institute. https://www.wri.org/research/triple-dividend-building-climate-resilience-taking-stock-moving-forward

该研究项目的目的是确保和改善经济和社会研究方法在政府主导的气候风险评估中的嵌入，并最大限度地提高英国采取的适应行动的影响。目前，在英国和全球范围内，对气候变化适应和能力建设的投资严重不足。因此，这种干预措施的高效益没有实现。造成这种投资不足的原因包括缺乏关于风险、解决这些风险的成本以及这样做的全部好处的充分信息。了解成本并考虑到适应和增强能力干预措施的全部好处，可以使政府、国际金融机构和私营部门做出更好的投资决策，缩小资金缺口。在以往工作的基础上，表明许多类型的适应投资的全部效益远远大于通常的假设-即使它们所保护的极端事件没有发生，也会在很大程度上累积-在此研究期间进行的研究旨在通过纳入扩大和改进的成本效益分析（CBA）来支持英国的第四次气候变化风险评估（CCRA 4）-事前和事前后适应和增强能力。我打算用多标准分析和事后影响分析/评价来补充这一点。重要的是，我打算将三重红利方法作为我工作的核心，用于经济和财政评估，这有助于促进扩大适应投资。成本效益分析广泛应用于公共和私营部门以及国际金融机构，对干预措施进行事前评估和事后影响评估。在政府和国际金融机构内进行的成本效益分析的质量（例如，在过去二十年中，由于数据可用性方面的挑战、无形利益的存在以及缺乏方法学专业知识，然而，由于其在项目评估和影响评估以及评估碳排放等外部因素（使用碳的社会成本）方面的核心作用，其使用正在重新兴起。13.“三重抗御红利”办法利用成本效益分析改进适应投资的效益估计。《贸易和发展报告》说明并量化了适应气候变化的全部经济、环境和社会效益。它将利益分为沿着三种红利：避免的损失（第一红利）、适应行动带来的经济或发展利益（第二红利）以及额外的社会和环境利益（第三红利）。第二个和第三个红利特别重要，因为无论实际气候风险是否成为现实，它们都会累积。Heubaum等人（2021年）的研究表明，这些益处的量化导致效益成本比（BCR）远远高于通常假设的水平。风险评估能够更好地量化和显示干预的诸多益处，这有助于政府解决气候减缓和适应投资之间持续存在的不平衡，并证明使用有限资源促进私营部门投资的合理性。Heubaum，H.等（2022年）。建立气候弹性的三重红利：盘点，向前迈进。反战者国际工作文件。华盛顿，华盛顿特区：世界资源研究所。https://www.wri.org/research/triple-dividend-building-climate-resilience-taking-stock-moving-forward