Socio-Emotional Characteristics in Early Childhood and Offending Behaviour in Adolescence

约80%的惯犯在成年前第一次与刑事司法系统互动，后期干预的年成本约为170亿英镑(司法部，2022年5月)。由于与犯罪相关的高社会和经济代价，了解使儿童有可能成为未来罪犯的潜在机制是一项政策优先事项。现有文献表明，少年犯在儿童早期往往表现出较差的社会情感发展(Murray等人。(2010年，Moffitt，2018年)，更有可能面临与学校有关的困难(如旷课、退学)，并就读于经济困难地区的学校(教育部，2023年7月)。除了使用社区样本和出生队列进行研究外，人们对不良的社会情绪发展如何影响青少年的冒犯行为以及通过何种途径加以调节或缓和知之甚少。目前还不清楚早期的社会情绪困难如何与学校和当地地区的特定特征相互作用，以及这种相互作用如何导致儿童未来参与犯罪。这项研究将使用MoJ-DFE关联数据，该数据从年初阶段基金会档案(ESYFP)和警察国家计算机(PNC)的行政犯罪记录中提供关于儿童在学校接收年度结束时的社会情绪量表的独特信息。利用这些数据，我将提供儿童社会情绪发展的详细细分，并探索影响青少年冒犯行为的途径。然后，这项研究将扩展到一个多层次模型，以审查学校和地方当局的具体特点如何与儿童的社会情感发展相互作用，以影响刑事司法结果。研究目的1：评估儿童社会情绪发展与青春期因犯罪被警示或判刑的可能性之间的关系。为每个儿童在学校招待会上建立一份社会情绪档案。确定因严重暴力犯罪而受到警示或判刑的青少年的早期社会情绪发展特征。研究目标2：确定早期社会情绪困难影响青春期犯罪行为的潜在中介因素.量化不良的社会情绪发展对不良教育结果(与学校有关的困难和成绩差)的影响。衡量不良教育结果对早期社会情绪困难和青少年犯罪行为之间的联系的中介作用。研究目标3：评估学校的异质性和LAS如何与早期社会情绪发展相互作用以塑造青少年的冒犯行为。记录不同学校之间的差异(例如，关键阶段的平均分数，治理结构等)和LAS(例如青少年犯罪率、人均儿童服务支出等)确定可能导致社会性情绪发育不良的儿童在青春期从事犯罪行为的学校和LAS的具体特征。关键是要确定儿童的早期社会情感特征和其他背景因素，这些因素可能使他们在过渡到青春期时从事犯罪活动的风险增加。评估这些特征以及这些特征影响以后生活结果的途径可以促进制定早期干预措施和战略，以防止儿童在以后的生活中成为罪犯。

Approximately 80 percent of persistent offenders have their first interaction with the criminal justice system before reaching adulthood and the annual cost of late intervention is approximately £17 billion (MoJ, May 2022). Understanding the underlying mechanisms that place children at risk of becoming future offenders is a policy priority due to the high social and economic costs associated with crime. Existing literature shows that young offenders often exhibit poor socio-emotional development in early childhood (Murray et al. 2010, Moffitt 2018), are more likely to face school-related difficulties (e.g. absenteeism, exclusions) and attend schools located in economically disadvantaged areas (DfE, July 2023). Beyond studies using community samples and birth cohorts, little is known about how poor socio-emotional development affects adolescent offending behaviour and the pathways through which this can be mediated or moderated. It also remains unclear how early socio-emotional difficulties interact with specific characteristics of schools and local areas, and how this interaction may result in children's future involvement in crime.This study will use the MoJ-DfE linked data which provides unique information on socio-emotional scales of children at the end of the school reception year from the Early Year Stage Foundation Profile (ESYFP) and administrative criminal records from the Police National Computer (PNC). Using this data, I will provide a detailed breakdown of childhood socio-emotional development and explore the pathways through which this affects adolescent offending behaviour. The study will then extend to a multi-level model to examine how specific characteristics of schools and Local Authorities (LAs) interact with children's socio-emotional development to shape criminal justice outcomes. The aims and objectives of the proposed project are aligned with the research priorities stated in MoJ-DfE (2023) and are summarized as follows:Research Aim 1: To assess the relationship between childhood socio-emotional development and the probability of being cautioned or sentenced for an offence in adolescence.To construct a socio-emotional profile for each child at the year of school reception.To identify characteristics of early socio-emotional development in adolescents who have received cautions or sentences for serious violent crimes early on in their lives.Research Aim 2: To determine potential mediators through which early socio-emotional difficulties shape offending behaviour in adolescence.To quantify the impact of poor socio-emotional development on adverse educational outcomes (school-related difficulties and poor attainment).To measure the mediating effect of adverse educational outcomes on the association between early socio-emotional difficulties and adolescent offending behaviour.Research Aim 3: To evaluate how heterogeneity in schools and LAs interact with early socio-emotional development to shape offending behaviour in adolescence.To document differences across schools (e.g. average Key Stage score, governance structure, etc.) and LAs (e.g. youth crime rates, per capita expenditure on children services, etc.) and their influence on adolescent offending behaviour.To identify specific characteristics of schools and LAs that may lead children with poor socio-emotional development to engage in offending behaviour in adolescence.It is crucial to identify early socio-emotional characteristics of children and other contextual factors, that could place them at increased risk of engaging in criminal activities as they transition into adolescence. Assessing these characteristics and the pathways through which these affect later-life outcomes can facilitate the development of early interventions and strategies to prevent children from becoming offenders later in life.