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The Net-Zero Emissions Challenge: Quantifying unintended climate feedbacks from large-scale deployment of land-based CO2 removal strategies

净零排放挑战：量化大规模部署陆基二氧化碳清除策略带来的意外气候反馈

基本信息

批准号：
MR/T019867/1
负责人：
Maria Val Martin
金额：
$ 155.96万
依托单位：
University of Sheffield
依托单位国家：
英国
项目类别：
Fellowship
财政年份：
2020
资助国家：
英国
起止时间：
2020 至无数据
项目状态：
未结题

来源：
https://gtr.ukri.org/projects?ref=MR%2FT019867%2F1
关键词：
Net Zero Emissions Challenge Quantifying

项目摘要

Over the past decades, carbon dioxide (CO2) concentrations in the atmosphere have increased rapidly, to the point that the Earth's temperature has not fully adjusted to the new warmer climate. This means that even if carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions were instantaneously reduced to zero, the Earth would still transition to a warmer climate. In 2015, an ambitious agreement was signed in Paris to limit global warming below 2C degrees and pursue efforts to limit it to 1.5C. Global temperatures have already increased by more than 1C above pre-industrial levels. Computer simulations, used to understand what can happen to the climate in the future, have shown that delivering on the Paris Climate Agreement will require both drastic reductions of GHG emissions and use of carbon dioxide removal (CDR) strategies leading to near-zero or negative emissions by 2100. To achieve this goal, society will be required, by 2050, to remove more GHGs from the atmosphere than those released.Afforestation/reforestation, wetland restoration, enhanced weathering and bioenergy crops are four proposed land-based CDR strategies that seek to remove CO2 in the biosphere by accelerating natural processes that are already occurring within the natural Earth cycle. These CDR strategies are recognized by the United Nations and have varying levels of technological readiness. However, unidentified environmental risks (e.g., increased non-CO2 GHG emissions) due to complex interactions between these CDR strategies, land and atmosphere are not fully understood and quantified. Therefore, while these strategies may practically remove CO2 from the atmosphere, they might not effectively stop future warming. Understanding the effectiveness of CDR efforts is critical to help society and policy makers design mitigation and adaptation approaches for tackling climate change. This Fellowship proposes the UK first integrated study for quantifying specifically the environmental risks associated with the large-scale deployment of these four land-based CDR strategies. To address this important challenge, this Fellowship will develop a coordinated cross-disciplinary earth system science framework, which will combine new information from field experiments and surface and satellite earth observations with the next generation of computer simulations. This Fellowship will also leverage my strong interdisciplinary research background in atmosphere-biosphere-climate interactions and the expertise of internationally recognized collaborators and UK partners, the UK Government and the World Wildlife Fund to establish a world-leading group for understanding human intervention in the climate system, which will guide society and policy makers towards the most appropriate pathways to reach net-zero emissions.

在过去的几十年里，大气中的二氧化碳（CO2）浓度迅速增加，以至于地球的温度还没有完全适应新的温暖气候。这意味着，即使二氧化碳和其他温室气体（GHG）的排放量瞬间减少到零，地球仍然会向更温暖的气候过渡。2015年，在巴黎签署了一项雄心勃勃的协议，将全球变暖限制在2摄氏度以下，并努力将其限制在1.5摄氏度。全球气温已经比工业化前的水平上升了1摄氏度以上。用于了解未来气候可能发生的变化的计算机模拟表明，实现巴黎气候协定将需要大幅减少温室气体排放，并使用二氧化碳清除（CDR）战略，到2100年实现接近零或负排放。为了实现这一目标，到2050年，社会需要从大气中清除的温室气体将超过排放的温室气体。植树造林/重新造林、湿地恢复、增强风化和生物能源作物是四项拟议的陆基CDR战略，旨在通过加速自然地球循环中已经发生的自然过程来清除生物圈中的二氧化碳。这些减灾战略得到联合国的承认，技术准备程度各不相同。然而，未识别的环境风险（例如，由于这些减排战略、土地和大气之间复杂的相互作用，非CO2温室气体排放量的增加没有得到充分的理解和量化。因此，虽然这些策略实际上可以从大气中去除二氧化碳，但它们可能无法有效阻止未来的变暖。了解减灾努力的有效性对于帮助社会和决策者设计应对气候变化的减缓和适应方法至关重要。该奖学金提出了英国第一项综合研究，专门量化与大规模部署这四种陆基CDR战略相关的环境风险。为了应对这一重要挑战，该研究金将制定一个协调的跨学科地球系统科学框架，将联合收割机从实地实验以及地面和卫星地球观测中获得的新信息与下一代计算机模拟相结合。该奖学金还将利用我在大气-生物圈-气候相互作用方面强大的跨学科研究背景以及国际公认的合作者和英国合作伙伴，英国政府和世界野生动物基金会的专业知识，建立一个世界领先的小组，以了解人类对气候系统的干预，这将指导社会和政策制定者走向最合适的途径，以达到净零排放。

项目成果

期刊论文数量（10）

专著数量（0）

科研奖励数量（0）

会议论文数量（0）

专利数量（0）

Improved estimates of smoke exposure during Australia fire seasons: importance of quantifying plume injection heights

DOI：
10.5194/acp-24-2985-2024
发表时间：
2024-03
期刊：
Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics
影响因子：
6.3
作者：
Xu Feng;L. Mickley;M. Bell;Tianjia Liu;J. Fisher;M. Val Martin
通讯作者：
Xu Feng;L. Mickley;M. Bell;Tianjia Liu;J. Fisher;M. Val Martin

Impacts of Sugarcane Fires on Air Quality and Public Health in South Florida.

DOI：
10.1289/ehp9957
发表时间：
2022-08
期刊：
ENVIRONMENTAL HEALTH PERSPECTIVES
影响因子：
10.4
作者：
Nowell, Holly K.;Wirks, Charles;Martin, Maria Val;van Donkelaar, Aaron;Martin, Randall, V;Uejio, Christopher K.;Holmes, Christopher D.
通讯作者：
Holmes, Christopher D.

Green infrastructure for air quality plus (GI4AQ+): Defining critical dimensions for implementation in schools and the meaning of 'plus' in a UK context

空气质量+绿色基础设施（GI4AQ）：定义学校实施的关键维度以及英国背景下“+”的含义