Computational Statistics to Tackle Modern Slavery

如果我们要在2030年之前实现联合国可持续发展目标，我们需要制定更好的统计方法来绘制弱势群体的流行情况。在这个奖学金项目中，我将A.对隐藏人群进行有效的计算统计方法的基础研究，B.使用这些方法在地方、国家和国际层面绘制现代奴隶制地图，C.与我的项目伙伴合作，根据我们的循证研究改变政策。为了实现可持续发展目标，我们需要衡量我们离实现这些目标还有多远，量化最需要支持的人群，并评估干预措施在创造可持续发展方面的成功程度。以现代奴隶制的受害者为例。受害者往往被边缘化和隐藏，虐待行为得不到报告和监督。估计有多少受害者、在哪里发生虐待行为以及评估支持受害者的干预措施的有效性，仍然是现代奴隶制和更广泛的可持续发展领域面临的一项挑战。关于受害者和虐待行为的数据往往是嘈杂的、质量差的，或者根本没有收集到。计算统计学的发展在这里是非常强大的。它们将提供一个框架来处理低质量和缺失的数据，同时避免对滥用行为如何发生进行具体和武断的假设。目前的方法要求研究人员对他们正在建模的滥用行为做出具体假设，而这些假设很难从数据中证明是正确的。我开发的方法将远离这一点，而是做出更一般的数学假设。这将使数据为自己说话，并可以提供更好的反事实证据和更现实的结论。为了实现这一目标，我带来了为流行病制定这些方法的良好记录，在这些流行病中，我的方法已被证明可以在数据质量较差时减少对特定假设的需要。然而，这种灵活性的代价是更大的计算负担、结果的不确定性增加，以及在使用这些方法时需要专业技术知识。为了加快实现可持续发展目标的进程，研究人员需要能够在实践中使用的方法。我将领导有效的计算统计方法的发展。通过减少计算负担，提供处理结果不确定性的机制，并使方法易于实现，它们将对非统计学家更具吸引力。我已经展示了我的发展如何在绘制贫困地图时大大减轻数据收集负担，使这些方法对从事减贫工作的研究和组织更具吸引力。这项奖学金的一个关键部分是与一名研究软件工程师合作，他可以开发数据系统和软件，其他研究人员和组织可以使用这些系统和软件来实施我的方法。我将用我的方法解决现代奴隶制中紧迫的问题，并推动该领域实现联合国到2030年结束奴隶制的目标。我将与我的项目伙伴合作，绘制地方、国家和国际各级的现代奴隶制地图。该奖学金有可能拯救生命，并展示计算统计如何推动实现可持续发展目标的进展。通过利用我的项目伙伴的支持，我将影响政治家和决策者利用我的成果来保护受害者并防止潜在受害者遭受现代奴隶制的虐待。

If we are to meet the United Nation's Sustainable Development Goals by their target of 2030, we need to develop better statistical methods to map the prevalence of vulnerable populations. In this fellowship, I will A. carry out foundational research into effective computational statistics methods for hidden populations, B. use the methods to map modern slavery at local, national and international levels, and C. work with my project partners to change policy based on our evidence-based research. To meet the Sustainable Development Goals, we need to measure how close we are to meeting them, quantify who is most in need of support and evaluate how successful interventions are in creating sustainable development. Take, for example, victims of modern slavery. Victims are often marginalised and hidden, with abuses going unreported and unmonitored. Estimating how many victims there are, where the abuses are happening and evaluating the effectiveness of interventions to support victims remain a challenge to the field of modern slavery and sustainable development more broadly. Data about victims and abuses is often noisy, poor quality or simply not collected. Developments in computational statistics can be really powerful here. They will provide a framework to deal with poor quality and missing data, while simultaneously avoiding specific and arbitrary assumptions about how the abuses are happening. Current methods require researchers to make specific assumptions about the abuses they are modelling which are difficult to justify from the data. The methods I develop will move away from this, instead making more general, mathematical assumptions. This will allow the data to speak for itself and can provide better counterfactual evidence and more realistic conclusions. To meet this aim, I bring a strong track record of developing these methods for epidemics, where my methods have been shown to reduce the need for specific assumptions when the data is poor quality. However, this flexibility comes at the cost of a larger computational burden, increased uncertainty in the results, and a requirement for technical expertise when using the methods. To speed up progress to meeting the Sustainable Development Goals, researchers need methods that can be used in practice. I will lead the development of effective computational statistical methods. By reducing the computational burden, providing mechanisms to deal with the uncertainty in the results, and making methods easy to implement, they will become much more attractive to non-statisticians. I have already shown how my developments can considerably reduce the data collection burden when mapping poverty, making these methods more attractive to research and organisations working in poverty reduction. A key part of this fellowship is collaboration with a research software engineer who can develop data systems and software that other researchers and organisations can use to implement my methods. I will use my methods to solve pressing problems in modern slavery and advance the field to meet the UN's goal to end slavery by 2030. I will work with my project partners to map modern slavery at local, national and international levels. This fellowship has the potential to save lives and show how computational statistics can advance progress towards the Sustainable Development Goals. By leveraging support from my project partners, I will influence politicians and policy makers to use my results to safeguard victims and prevent potential victims from suffering from modern slavery abuses.