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UK Contribution to Plio-MIP (Pliocene Modelling Intercomaprison Project)

英国对 Plio-MIP（上新世模拟互囚项目）的贡献

基本信息

批准号：
NE/G009112/1
负责人：
Alan Haywood
金额：
$ 4.91万
依托单位：
University of Leeds
依托单位国家：
英国
项目类别：
Research Grant
财政年份：
2009
资助国家：
英国
起止时间：
2009 至无数据
项目状态：
已结题

来源：
https://gtr.ukri.org/projects?ref=NE%2FG009112%2F1
关键词：
UK Contribution Plio MIP Pliocene

项目摘要

Advanced numerical models of climate, often referred to as General Circulation Models, are being extensively used to predict the impacts of human induced climate change on global and regional scales. Although advanced such models remain imperfect tools with which to simulate climate change, and thus the robustness of climate models must be tested so that confidence in their predictions can be increased. There is no way climate model predictions for the future can directly test, but scientists can evaluate the capability of state of the art climate models to reproduce climate states that existed in the past and that were radically different from those of today. Since the mid 1990's an international programme called PMIP (Palaeoclimate Modelling Intercomparison Project) has championed the systematic study of several climate models and assessed their ability to simulate large changes of climate that occurred in the past. However, PMIP has not studied a period in Earth history that was globally warmer than present-day, and which had higher than pre-industrial levels of carbon dioxide (a greenhouse gas) in the atmosphere. In other words PMIP has not examined the ability of, and determined the differences between, climate models when simulating a period in Earth's history that provides a close analogue to climate as it is predicted to be in the future, as a result of human modification. The project will help fill this gap and enable a leading UK contribution to a new project set up to systematically study climate model outputs for a warm period in Earth history (the mid-Pliocene warm period ca 3 to 3.3 million years before present) which has a number of parallels to climate predictions for the end of this century. The recent Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) 4th assessment report states that 'the mid-Pliocene is the most recent interval of geological time when mean global temperatures were ~2 to 3 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial temperatures for a sustained period. Therefore, the mid-Pliocene represents an accessible example of a world that is similar in many respects to what models estimate could be the Earth of the late 21st century'. In June 2008 representatives from 10 climate modelling groups worldwide met in New York to discuss and agree the details of new climate model simulations that will be carried out for the mid-Pliocene. This proposal outlines the programme of work and resources necessary to allow the UK to take part in this exciting new international initiative. It is expected that outcomes from this new project will be included in the next Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change report, thereby helping to inform scientists and politicians worldwide about the ability and differences between climate models in simulating the last great period of sustained global warmth in our planets long history.

先进的气候数值模型，通常称为大气环流模型，被广泛用于预测人类引起的气候变化对全球和区域尺度的影响。尽管先进的此类模型仍然是模拟气候变化的不完善工具，因此必须测试气候模型的稳健性，以便增加对其预测的信心。气候模型对未来的预测无法直接进行测试，但科学家可以评估最先进的气候模型重现过去存在且与当今截然不同的气候状态的能力。自 1990 年代中期以来，一个名为 PMIP（古气候模拟比对项目）的国际计划一直倡导对多个气候模型进行系统研究，并评估它们模拟过去发生的气候大变化的能力。然而，PMIP 尚未研究过地球历史上全球变暖程度高于当今、大气中二氧化碳（一种温室气体）含量高于工业化前水平的时期。换句话说，在模拟地球历史时期时，PMIP 没有检查气候模型的能力，也没有确定气候模型之间的差异，该时期与预测的未来气候（由于人类修改的结果）非常相似。该项目将有助于填补这一空白，并使英国能够为一个新项目做出领先贡献，该项目旨在系统地研究地球历史上温暖时期（距今约3至330万年前的上新世中期温暖时期）的气候模型输出，该项目与本世纪末的气候预测有许多相似之处。最近的政府间气候变化专门委员会（IPCC）第四次评估报告指出，“上新世中期是最近的一个地质时期，全球平均气温持续比工业化前气温高出约2至3摄氏度。”因此，上新世中期代表了一个在许多方面与模型估计的 21 世纪末地球相似的世界的例子。 2008 年 6 月，来自全球 10 个气候模拟小组的代表在纽约举行会议，讨论并商定将为上新世中期进行的新气候模型模拟的细节。该提案概述了英国参与这一令人兴奋的新国际倡议所需的工作计划和资源。预计这个新项目的成果将纳入政府间气候变化专门委员会的下一份报告中，从而帮助全世界的科学家和政治家了解气候模型在模拟地球漫长历史中最后一个全球持续变暖的伟大时期方面的能力和差异。