EXTENDED ECONOMIC IMPACT ASSESSMENT OF AIDS INTERVENTION

描述：（改编自申请人摘要）向美国国家药物滥用研究所（NIDA）提出的小额资助申请，要求支持对北卡罗来纳州艾滋病社区外展、干预和研究合作协议（NC CoOp研究）目前实施的行为干预的经济影响进行二次分析。首席研究员，Anke Richter博士，要求这些资金在一个新的和经验不足的研究研究者的优先类别下。拟议的努力将继续她的论文有关的经济评估干预措施，以防止艾滋病毒/艾滋病在高危人群的传播。数学建模提供了一种估计流行病进展和短期行为干预的最终结果的手段。此外，未来行为改变的影响，例如干预完成后艾滋病毒风险行为的可能复发，只能通过模型进行评估。数学疾病模型使我们能够将可观察到的短期结果与重要的长期结果联系起来，并允许进行重要的“假设”分析，以评估疾病或行为参数的微小变化的影响。将一个既能捕获服务转换数量又能捕捉它们发生时间的数学流行病模型与一个经济模型相结合，将加强经济分析。结果将更加详细和准确，从而允许在干预方案之间进行更全面的比较。在对NC CoOp研究实施的干预措施进行广泛的经济影响分析时，本提案有三个具体目标：模拟长期影响（重点关注艾滋病毒血清转化的数量和发生的时间），通过NC合作社研究对城市，高风险，主要是非裔美国人，药物滥用社区作为一个整体实施干预措施。2. 确定数学流行病和经济模型最敏感的参数（例如个人艾滋病毒风险行为），从而确定今后针对药物滥用者的政策和干预方案的目标。3. 通过将全面的流行病模型纳入经济模型，对药物滥用者艾滋病毒干预措施的成本/节省进行直接评估。

DESCRIPTION: (Adapted from the Applicant's Abstract) This small grant application to the National Institute on Drug Abuse (NIDA) requests support for a secondary analysis of the economic impact of behavioral interventions currently implemented by the North Carolina Cooperative Agreement for AIDS Community-Based Outreach, Intervention, and Research (the NC CoOp study). The principal investigator, Dr. Anke Richter, requests these funds under the priority category of a new and less-experienced research investigator. The proposed effort will continue her dissertation work related to the economic assessment of interventions introduced to prevent the spread of HIV/AIDS in a high-risk population. Mathematical modeling provides a means of estimating epidemic progression and the ultimate outcomes of short-term behavioral interventions. Furthermore, the impact of future behavioral changes, such as possible relapses in HIV risk behavior after an intervention has been completed, can only be assessed via a model. Mathematical disease modeling permits us to link the observable short-term results with important long-term outcomes and permits important "what-if" analysis to assess the impact of small changes in disease or behavioral parameters. Combining a mathematical epidemic model that captures both the number of seroconversions and the time at which they occur with an economic model will enhance the economic analyses. The results will be more detailed and more accurate, thereby permitting a fuller comparison between intervention options. This proposal has three specific aims in performing an extensive economic impact analysis of the interventions implemented by the NC CoOp study: 1. Model the long-term effects (focusing on the number of HIV seroconversions and the time at which they occur) of the interventions implemented by the NC CoOp study on the urban, high- risk, primarily African-American, substance abusing community as a whole. 2. Identify the parameters (such as individual HIV risk behaviors) to which the mathematical epidemic and economic models are most sensitive and thereby identify targets for future policy and intervention programs for substance abusers. 3. Conduct a direct assessment of the cost/savings of the HIV interventions for substance abusers by incorporating a full epidemic model into the economic model.