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Poverty and ecology: developing a new evolutionary approach

贫困与生态：开发新的进化方法

基本信息

批准号：
NE/I002960/1
负责人：
John Alfred Dearing
金额：
$ 26.63万
依托单位：
University of Southampton
依托单位国家：
英国
项目类别：
Research Grant
财政年份：
2010
资助国家：
英国
起止时间：
2010 至无数据
项目状态：
已结题

来源：
https://gtr.ukri.org/projects?ref=NE%2FI002960%2F1
关键词：
Poverty ecology developing new evolutionary

项目摘要

China's Premier Wen Jiabao recently commented that the sluggish development of agriculture and the slow increase of farmers' incomes constituted the nation's major problems and challenges - a view that is repeated in many developing countries. Alleviating poverty and raising standards of well-being among the rural poor is often seen in terms of inequalities in individual opportunities, land tenure and market imbalances. But increasingly scientists are arguing that rural development must also proceed alongside proper management of the natural environment. Without this, the possible negative consequences for food supply, water quality, biodiversity and other aspects of the environment that we all depend upon, so-called ecological services, are severe. There are countless examples of how agricultural development has caused signficant and often irreversible damage to the natural fabric that supports society. The challenge is how to develop, while ensuring that the decisions made now will lead to sustainable use of the land for decades to come? Conventionally, computer models have provided guidance about future consequences of human activities and climate change on key environmental conditons. But there is increasing criticism that the models do not handle well the possibility that the natural environment can change in unpredictable ways. We know that natural environments can change in complex ways, as with flooding and forest fire, but when humans are involved these changes can be even more unpredictable - and many of the current models do not deal with this well. There is the danger that existing models are providing a false clarity of the future. Our research addresses this problem in a novel way. We argue that contemporary rural landscsapes are the product of their history, and that we can learn much from analysing how the mixture of human actions, climate and ecology has effectively 'evolved' to the state that we see today. This is no idle thought. Many studies have shown that the time taken for ecological processes to change is often over relatively long timescales. For example, pollution of rivers and lakes by sewage and fertlizers can take several decades from the start of the pollution to the whole water system reacting in terms of fish losses or build-up of poisonous algae. Sometimes, ecosytems can withstand a good deal of stress from human activities, but when they finally give way the result can be very damaging. In the lower Yangtze river basin, where the research is set, history describes a catalogue of human catastrophes wrought by flood, famine and poor agricultural practice. Even today, there is widespread rural poverty across many agricultural settings, and many environmental problems. There is accelerating soil erosion on the hilly lands; deteriorating water quality in irrigation channels, rivers and lakes; the ever-present threat of flooding; coastal erosion from rising sea-levels; pressure to produce more food for the rising city populations at a time when the rural population is declining and getting older. We will compile records for local indigenous knowledge, socio-economic data and ecological change for the lower Yangtze basin as a whole and for four selected counties, two of which we have already worked in, for upto the last 200 years or so. These data will be set up within a newly developed application for Google Earth so that we can easily show politicians, administrators, advisors, and farmers the changes that the environment has already experienced and how it might change in the future. We will analyse the trends mathematically and statistically in order to evaluate the sustainability of the current form of agricultural management. We will meet with academics, agencies and rural communities to discuss the implications of the results, how the results compare with their own perceptions of change, and what might be the best alternative futures to aim for.

中国总理温家宝最近评论说，农业发展缓慢和农民收入增长缓慢是中国的主要问题和挑战。减轻农村穷人的贫穷和提高他们的福利水平往往是从个人机会不平等、土地保有权和市场不平衡的角度来看待的。但越来越多的科学家认为，农村发展也必须与自然环境的适当管理一起进行。否则，粮食供应、水质、生物多样性和我们大家所依赖的环境的其他方面，即所谓的生态服务，可能会受到严重的负面影响。农业发展对支持社会的自然结构造成重大而且往往是不可逆转的破坏的例子不胜枚举。挑战是如何发展，同时确保现在作出的决定将导致土地在未来几十年的可持续利用？传统上，计算机模型已经为人类活动和气候变化对关键环境条件的未来后果提供了指导。但越来越多的批评认为，这些模型没有很好地处理自然环境以不可预测的方式发生变化的可能性。我们知道，自然环境可以以复杂的方式发生变化，比如洪水和森林火灾，但当人类参与其中时，这些变化可能更加不可预测-目前的许多模型都不能很好地处理这一点。现有的模型有可能对未来提供虚假的清晰度。我们的研究以一种新颖的方式解决了这个问题。我们认为，当代农村景观是其历史的产物，我们可以学到很多从分析人类活动，气候和生态的混合物如何有效地“演变”到我们今天看到的状态。这不是一个无聊的想法。许多研究表明，生态过程发生变化所需的时间往往相对较长。例如，污水和化肥对河流和湖泊的污染可能需要几十年的时间，从污染开始到整个水系统在鱼类损失或有毒藻类积累方面做出反应。有时，生态系统可以承受来自人类活动的大量压力，但当它们最终屈服时，结果可能是非常有害的。在长江下游流域，在那里的研究设置，历史描述了一个目录的人类灾难造成的洪水，饥荒和不良的农业实践。即使在今天，在许多农业环境中仍然存在广泛的农村贫困和许多环境问题。丘陵地带的土壤侵蚀正在加速;灌溉渠道、河流和湖泊的水质正在恶化;洪水的威胁始终存在;海平面上升造成的海岸侵蚀;在农村人口减少和老龄化的同时，为不断增加的城市人口生产更多粮食的压力。我们将编制整个长江下游流域和四个选定县（其中两个我们已经在其中工作过）过去200年左右的当地土著知识、社会经济数据和生态变化的记录。这些数据将在新开发的Google Earth应用程序中设置，以便我们可以轻松地向政治家，管理员，顾问和农民展示环境已经经历的变化以及未来可能发生的变化。我们将从数学和统计学的角度分析这些趋势，以评估目前农业管理形式的可持续性。我们将会见学者，机构和农村社区，讨论结果的影响，结果如何与他们自己的变化的看法比较，以及什么可能是最好的替代未来的目标。