Participatory Modelling Frameworks to Understand Wellbeing Trade-offs in Coastal Ecosystem Services.

该项目旨在开发一个框架和相关工具，以明确确定生态系统服务之间的权衡，以及不同利益攸关方因政策和发展情景与环境变化而产生的福祉之间的权衡。我们将通过将建模和参与性进程相结合来代表社会生态系统的相互作用和反应，并通过一系列专家和利益攸关方讲习班将所开发的框架应用于肯尼亚的沿海环境来实现这一目标。生态系统服务在理解人类需求和生态系统之间的联系方面已经变得流行起来，但它们在实际应用于发展和可持续发展问题，特别是减贫方面受到各种挑战的限制。这些挑战往往源于专家系统框架无法考虑到社会生态系统固有的复杂性和相互作用。它限制了我们对可持续发展最终将如何转化为减贫的理解。特别是，我们知道，可持续发展的好处不仅取决于机构和市场，还取决于资本、知识、专门知识、技术和劳动力--这是贫困群体往往缺乏的。此外，我们知道，重要的是要了解福祉不同方面之间的相互联系。这些都严重影响了在对不同群体的可持续发展利益进行取舍的情况下，利用可持续发展办法进行减贫的有效性。需要有一个考虑到社会生态系统复杂性下的权衡的ES框架，并明确代表贫困群体。该项目将开发一个新的框架，将建模和参与性进程结合起来，以了解、记录和审议在复杂的社会生态系统中对不同用户群体福祉的利益之间的权衡。我们将在肯尼亚沿海环境的案例研究中测试该框架。我们将开发定量和半定量模型，以探索情景对特定群体的ES和福祉的影响。将根据关于社会和生态组成部分之间的相互作用和反应的定量和定性知识来模拟社会-生态系统中的联系。在制定模型和整理数据的同时，我们提议与科学家、管理人员和利益攸关方一起在东非举办五次讲习班，以：开发概念和方法工具、规划情景、获取模型参数、进行多标准分析以及反映和传播成果。为实现具体目标，将密切协助举办讲习班。这些方法、经验和经验将在科学家和政策制定者中传播，以支持ESPA计划。拟议的项目将提供一个框架，以研究生态系统服务的权衡取舍，并促进讨论用户群体之间的成本和收益分担问题，以及设计政策备选方案。特别是，这种方法将有助于在与生态系统服务有关的政策讨论中增加对贫困群体的认识，从而有助于制定减轻贫困的政策。

This project is designed to develop a framework and associated tools to explicitly identify trade-offs between ecosystem services and between the wellbeing of different stakeholders resulting from policy and development scenarios and environmental change. We will achieve this by combining modelling and participatory processes to represent interactions and responses of social-ecological systems, and applying the developed framework to the coastal environment of Kenya through a series of expert and stakeholder workshops. Ecosystem services (ES) have become popular for understanding linkages between human needs and ecosystems, yet their use in practical application to problems of development and sustainability, and poverty alleviation in particular, have been limited by various challenges. These challenges often stem from the inability for ES frameworks to take account of the complexity and interactions inherent in social-ecological systems. It limits our understanding on how ES will ultimately translate into poverty alleviation. Particularly, we know that ES benefits depends not only on institutions and markets, but also on capital, knowledge, expertise, technology and labour - something that poor groups often lack. Also, we know that it is important to understand the inter-linkages between different aspects of well-being. These have serious implications for the effectiveness of using ES approach for poverty alleviation in the face of trade-offs of ES benefits to different groups. There is a need for ES frameworks that account for trade-offs under the complexity of social-ecological systems with explicitly representation of poor groups. This project will develop a novel framework to combine modelling and participatory processes to understand, document and deliberate on trade-offs between ES benefits to the wellbeing of different user groups in complex social-ecological systems. We will test the framework in a case study of coastal environment of Kenya. We will develop quantitative and semi-quantitative models to explore the impacts of scenarios on ES and wellbeing of particular groups. Linkages in the social-ecological system will be modelled based on quantitative and qualitative knowledge about the interactions and responses between the social and ecological components. Interspersed with model development and data collation, we propose to conduct five workshops in East Africa with scientists, managers and stakeholders to: develop conceptual and methodological tools, plan scenarios, obtain model parameters, conduct multi-criteria analysis, and reflect and disseminate results. Workshops will be closely facilitated towards specific objectives. The methods, experiences and learning will be disseminated amongst scientists, and policy makers to support the ESPA programme. The proposed project will provide a framework to study trade-offs in ecosystem services and facilitate the discussion of sharing of costs and benefits between users groups and in designing policy options. Particularly, the approach will help increase the recognition of the poor-group in policy discussion related to ecosystem services, and thus contribute to developing policies that alleviate poverty.