Towards the development of integrated modelling frameworks in aquatic biogeochemistry: A Bayesian synthesis of empirical knowledge and model predictions

我的研究项目侧重于水生生物地球化学循环的研究，并开发新的建模技术，以协助环境管理。我目前的研究促进了一种关键的建模方法，将贝叶斯推理技术与数学建模相结合，以严格评估模型预测的不确定性。NSERC以前的支持提供了一个平台，在基于模型的环境管理领域进行基础研究。位于安大略湖西端的富营养化海湾汉密尔顿港是用来传播我的研究计划的好处的主要地点之一。我的小组已经开发了一个模型网络，以捕捉较低食物网的关键组成部分的变化，最重要的是，提供了一个准确的代表性的因果关系的富营养化现象。基于我最近在汉密尔顿港流域和接收水体中的建模工作的结果，拟议的研究计划旨在阐明生态系统动态的两个关键方面，即，由沉积物成岩作用和初级生产者-消费者界面的营养/生物化学控制驱动的磷释放。该研究将为水生生物地球化学领域的两个热点问题提供基础知识。汉密尔顿港富营养化的性质使得沉积物成岩作用和生物化学控制的植物-动物界面的研究特别有趣。对这两个因素调节系统响应能力的预期见解将在国际文献中提供一个独特的案例研究。我的建模工作的基础上贝叶斯推理技术是完全适合于集成不同的子模型到一个连贯的框架，同时严格评估与模型结构和参数相关的不确定性。拟议的研究计划旨在说明如何经验知识和合理的建模可以用来指导系统恢复在高度干扰的设置。

My research program focuses on the study of aquatic biogeochemical cycles and develops novel modelling techniques for assisting environmental management. My current research promotes a critical approach to modelling that integrates Bayesian inference techniques with mathematical modelling for rigorously assessing the uncertainty underlying model predictions. Previous support from NSERC has offered a platform to conduct fundamental research in the area of model-based environmental management. The Hamilton Harbour, a eutrophic embayment located at the western tip of Lake Ontario, is one of the main sites used to disseminate the benefits of my research program. My group has developed a network of models to capture the variability of key components of the lower food web and, most importantly, to offer an accurate representation of the cause-effect relationships underlying the eutrophication phenomenon. Building upon the findings of my recent modelling work in the Hamilton Harbour watershed and receiving waterbody, the proposed research program aims to shed light on two critical aspects of the ecosystem dynamics, i.e., phosphorus release driven by sediment diagenesis and nutritional/biochemical control of the primary producer-consumer interface. The proposed research will offer fundamental knowledge on two hot topics in the field of aquatic biogeochemistry. The eutrophic nature of the Hamilton Harbour makes the study of sediment diagenesis and biochemical control of the plant-animal interface particularly intriguing. The anticipated insights into the capacity of the two factors to modulate the response of the system will offer a unique case study in the international literature. The foundation of my modelling work on Bayesian inference techniques is perfectly suitable for integrating different submodels into one coherent framework, while rigorously assessing the uncertainty associated with model structures and parameters. The proposed research program aims to illustrate how empirical knowledge and rational modelling can be used to guide system restoration in highly disturbed settings.