Towards the development of integrated modelling frameworks in aquatic biogeochemistry: A Bayesian synthesis of empirical knowledge and model predictions

我的研究项目侧重于水生生物地球化学循环的研究，并开发新的建模技术，以协助环境管理。我目前的研究促进了一种关键的建模方法，该方法将贝叶斯推理技术与数学建模相结合，以严格评估模型预测的不确定性。NSERC先前的支持为在基于模型的环境管理领域进行基础研究提供了一个平台。汉密尔顿港，一个位于安大略湖西端的富营养化海湾，是用来传播我的研究项目好处的主要地点之一。我的团队已经开发了一个模型网络，以捕捉下层食物网关键组成部分的可变性，最重要的是，提供富营养化现象背后因果关系的准确表示。基于我最近在汉密尔顿港流域和接收水体的建模工作的发现，拟议的研究计划旨在阐明生态系统动力学的两个关键方面，即由沉积物成岩作用驱动的磷释放和主要生产者-消费者界面的营养/生化控制。本研究将为水生生物地球化学领域的两个热点课题提供基础知识。汉密尔顿港的富营养化性质使得沉积物成岩作用和植物-动物界面的生化控制的研究特别有趣。预期对这两个因素调节系统反应的能力的见解将在国际文献中提供一个独特的案例研究。我在贝叶斯推理技术上的建模工作的基础非常适合将不同的子模型集成到一个连贯的框架中，同时严格评估与模型结构和参数相关的不确定性。提出的研究计划旨在说明如何利用经验知识和理性建模来指导高度干扰环境下的系统恢复。

My research program focuses on the study of aquatic biogeochemical cycles and develops novel modelling techniques for assisting environmental management. My current research promotes a critical approach to modelling that integrates Bayesian inference techniques with mathematical modelling for rigorously assessing the uncertainty underlying model predictions. Previous support from NSERC has offered a platform to conduct fundamental research in the area of model-based environmental management. The Hamilton Harbour, a eutrophic embayment located at the western tip of Lake Ontario, is one of the main sites used to disseminate the benefits of my research program. My group has developed a network of models to capture the variability of key components of the lower food web and, most importantly, to offer an accurate representation of the cause-effect relationships underlying the eutrophication phenomenon. Building upon the findings of my recent modelling work in the Hamilton Harbour watershed and receiving waterbody, the proposed research program aims to shed light on two critical aspects of the ecosystem dynamics, i.e., phosphorus release driven by sediment diagenesis and nutritional/biochemical control of the primary producer-consumer interface. The proposed research will offer fundamental knowledge on two hot topics in the field of aquatic biogeochemistry. The eutrophic nature of the Hamilton Harbour makes the study of sediment diagenesis and biochemical control of the plant-animal interface particularly intriguing. The anticipated insights into the capacity of the two factors to modulate the response of the system will offer a unique case study in the international literature. The foundation of my modelling work on Bayesian inference techniques is perfectly suitable for integrating different submodels into one coherent framework, while rigorously assessing the uncertainty associated with model structures and parameters. The proposed research program aims to illustrate how empirical knowledge and rational modelling can be used to guide system restoration in highly disturbed settings.