Solar wind connection to regional climate

Lu等人的研究成果。(2008)的研究表明，太阳风动压与北极冬季平流层和对流层的风和温度之间存在着密切的关系。这些风和温度的变化表明，气候振荡的北方环状模式在很大程度上决定了整个欧洲的主要冬季天气模式。低层大气数据中太阳风动压的特征比QBO或11年太阳周期的特征更强，在统计上也更可靠，时间尺度表明最有可能的联系是动力学联系。Clilverd等人。(2006)预测，刚刚开始的第24个太阳周期将异常低。最近的观测表明，目前的太阳最低值是200年来最低的，第24周的开始被推迟了，太阳风动压比前一周低了约20%，这是航天器现场测量时代以来最弱的。综合这些证据，我们目前正在进入一个低太阳风动压时代，而太阳风动压与不结盟运动有关的证据表明，在2012至2017年(下一次太阳活动最大值)之间，我们可能会看到冬季天气更加干燥，英国和斯堪的纳维亚地区的风暴较少，而南欧的天气更潮湿。然而，尽管太阳风动压和北极圈运动之间的关系的统计证据非常有力(&gt；99%)，但物理联系并不清楚。拟议研究的目的是通过利用观测和模型探索太阳风动压如何与极地地区的平流层连接，以及它如何与北方环状模式密切相关，来证实是否存在物理联系。

Lu et al. (2008) have shown that there is a robust relationship between solar wind dynamic pressure and the winds and temperatures in the northern polar winter stratosphere and troposphere. These wind and temperature variations are indicative of the Northern Annular Mode of climate oscillation which largely determines the predominant winter weather pattern across Europe. The signature of solar wind dynamic pressure in the lower atmosphere data is stronger and statistically more robust than those associated with either the QBO or the 11-yr solar cycle, and the timescales suggest that the most likely link is a dynamical one. Clilverd et al. (2006) predicted that solar cycle number 24, which is just beginning, would be unusually low. This has since been circumstantially supported by recent observations which show that the current solar minimum is the lowest for 200 years, that the onset of cycle 24 has been delayed, and that the solar wind dynamic pressure is ~20% lower than the previous cycle, the weakest it has been during the era of in-situ spacecraft measurements. Taken together this evidence that we are currently entering an era of low solar wind dynamic pressure, and the evidence that solar wind dynamic pressure is related to the NAM imply that, between 2012 and 2017 (the next solar maximum), we are likely to see drier winter weather with fewer storms in the UK and Scandinavia together with wetter weather in Southern Europe. However, while the statistical evidence for a relationship between the solar wind dynamic pressure and the NAM is very strong (>99%), a physical connection is not understood. The aim of the proposed research is to substantiate whether a physical connection exists by exploring, using both observations and models, just how the solar wind dynamic pressure can connect to the stratosphere in the polar regions, and hence how it can be strongly correlated with the Northern Annular Mode.