The Environment of the Arctic: Climate, Ocean and Sea Ice (TEA-COSI)

北极环境：气候、海洋和海冰 (TEA-COSI)

• 批准号: NE/I028947/1
• 负责人: Sheldon Bacon
• 金额: $ 60.2万
• 依托单位: NATIONAL OCEANOGRAPHY CENTRE
• 依托单位国家: 英国
• 项目类别: Research Grant
• 财政年份: 2011
• 资助国家: 英国
• 起止时间: 2011 至 无数据
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://gtr.ukri.org/projects?ref=NE%2FI028947%2F1
• 关键词: Environment; Arctic; Climate; Ocean; Sea

Look at a map of the world and find the Shetland Islands. Follow the 60 degrees north latitude circle eastwards. You pass through St. Petersburg, the Ural Mountains, Siberia, the Bering Sea, Alaska, northern Canada, the southern tip of Greenland, then back to the Shetlands. All these places are cold, harsh environments, particularly in winter, except the Shetlands, which is wet and windy but quite mild all year. This is because in the UK we benefit from heat brought northwards by the Atlantic Ocean in a current called the Conveyor Belt. This current is driven by surface water being made to sink by the extreme cold in and around the Arctic. It returns southwards through the Atlantic at great depths. Scientists think it is possible that the Conveyor Belt could slow down or stop, and if it did, the UK would get much colder.We know the planet has been warming for the last century or more, and we think this is due to the Greenhouse Effect. Burning fossil fuels puts a lot of carbon dioxide into the atmosphere, which stops heat from leaving the Earth, like the glass in a greenhouse. In a warming world, ice melts faster, and there is a lot of ice on the Earth: ice caps on Greenland and Antarctica, sea ice in the Arctic and Antarctic Oceans, glaciers in high mountains. And we know that the Arctic is the fastest-warming part of the planet. This causes extra amounts of fresh water to flow into the oceans. Now this fresh water can affect the Conveyor Belt by acting like a lid of water too light to sink, so the Conveyor Belt stops.What is the chance of this happening? We do not know, because there is much we do not understand about how the Arctic Ocean works. You need a powerful icebreaker to get into the Arctic Ocean, and that's only really possible in the summer, because in winter the sea ice thickens and the weather is bad. Scientists all over the world agree that the Arctic Ocean is important because it contains a lot of freshwater, which is why, although it is difficult to make measurements in the Arctic, the UK's Natural Environment Research Council has decided to fund a programme of scientific research in the Arctic.We want to be able to make better predictions of how the Arctic climate will change during the 21st century, so this project will help improve our ability to make these predictions. We will do this by improving the way that computer models of the Earth's climate represent the Arctic. We are going to treat the Arctic Ocean as a box, with a top, a bottom, sides and an interior, and we're going to examine all these parts of the box using measurements from space, from ships, from instruments moored to the sea bed, and from robotic sensors attached to drifting sea ice. We'll use all these measurements together to improve the scientific equations within the computer models, and then we'll run the models into the future to create better predictions not just of the Arctic, but of how changes in the Arctic might influence UK, European and global climate. With better predictions, we can make better plans for the future.

看一张世界地图，找到设得兰群岛。沿北纬60度圆向东行驶。你穿过圣彼得堡，乌拉尔山脉，西伯利亚，白令海，阿拉斯加，加拿大北部，格陵兰的南端，然后回到设得兰。所有这些地方都是寒冷、恶劣的环境，特别是在冬天，除了设得兰群岛，那里潮湿多风，但全年相当温和。这是因为在英国，我们受益于被称为传送带的大西洋洋流向北带来的热量。这股洋流是由地表水推动的，北极及其周围的极端寒冷使地表水下沉。它在很深的地方通过大西洋向南返回。科学家们认为传送带可能会减速或停止，如果发生这种情况，英国将变得更冷。我们知道地球在过去一个世纪或更长时间里一直在变暖，我们认为这是由于温室效应。燃烧化石燃料会将大量二氧化碳排放到大气中，从而阻止热量离开地球，就像温室里的玻璃一样。在变暖的世界里，冰融化得更快，地球上有很多冰：格陵兰和南极洲的冰帽，北冰洋和南极的海冰，高山上的冰川。我们知道北极是地球上变暖最快的地区。这会导致额外数量的淡水流入海洋。现在，这些淡水会影响传送带，就像一层太轻而无法下沉的水，传送带就会停止。这种情况发生的可能性有多大？我们不知道，因为关于北冰洋是如何运作的，我们还有很多不了解的地方。你需要一艘强大的破冰船才能进入北冰洋，而这只在夏天才有可能，因为冬天海冰变厚，天气不好。世界各地的科学家都认为北冰洋很重要，因为它含有大量淡水，这就是为什么尽管很难在北极进行测量，英国自然环境研究委员会决定资助一项北极科学研究计划。我们希望能够更好地预测21世纪北极气候的变化，所以这个项目将有助于提高我们做出这些预测的能力。我们将通过改进地球气候的计算机模型代表北极的方式来做到这一点。我们将北冰洋视为一个盒子，有顶部、底部、侧面和内部，我们将通过从太空、船只、停泊在海床上的仪器以及连接到漂浮海冰上的机器人传感器的测量来检查盒子的所有这些部分。我们将使用所有这些测量结果来改进计算机模型中的科学方程，然后我们将在未来运行这些模型，以创建更好的预测，不仅是对北极，而且是对北极的变化可能如何影响英国、欧洲和全球气候的预测。有了更好的预测，我们就可以为未来制定更好的计划。

项目成果

Arctic pathways of Pacific Water: Arctic Ocean Model Intercomparison experiments.

• DOI: 10.1002/2015jc011299
• 发表时间: 2016-01
• 期刊: JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH-OCEANS
• 影响因子: 3.6
• 作者: Aksenov, Yevgeny;Karcher, Michael;Proshutinsky, Andrey;Gerdes, Ruediger;de Cuevas, Beverly;Golubeva, Elena;Kauker, Frank;Nguyen, An T.;Platov, Gennady A.;Wadley, Martin;Watanabe, Eiji;Coward, Andrew C.;Nurser, A. J. George
• 通讯作者: Nurser, A. J. George

Arctic Sea Level and Surface Circulation Response to the Arctic Oscillation

• DOI: 10.1029/2018gl078386
• 发表时间: 2018-07-16
• 期刊: GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS
• 影响因子: 5.2
• 作者: Armitage, Thomas W. K.;Bacon, Sheldon;Kwok, Ron
• 通讯作者: Kwok, Ron

The Arctic Circumpolar Boundary Current

• DOI: 10.1029/2010jc006637
• 发表时间: 2011-09-17
• 期刊: JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH-OCEANS
• 影响因子: 3.6
• 作者: Aksenov, Yevgeny;Ivanov, Vladimir V.;Beszczynska-Moeller, Agnieszka
• 通讯作者: Beszczynska-Moeller, Agnieszka

Arctic sea surface height variability and change from satellite radar altimetry and GRACE, 2003-2014

• DOI: 10.1002/2015jc011579
• 发表时间: 2016-06-01
• 期刊: JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH-OCEANS
• 影响因子: 3.6
• 作者: Armitage, Thomas W. K.;Bacon, Sheldon;Wingham, Duncan J.
• 通讯作者: Wingham, Duncan J.

Fate of Early 2000s Arctic Warm Water Pulse

• DOI: 10.1175/2010bams2921.1
• 发表时间: 2011-05
• 期刊: Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society
• 影响因子: 8
• 作者: I. Polyakov;Vladimir A Alexeev;I. Ashik;S. Bacon;A. Beszczynska-Möller;E. Carmack;I. Dmitrenko