The Geopolitical Economy of Global Gas Security and Governance: Implications for the UK

天然气的未来需求前景及其在全球能源结构中的作用比以往任何时候都更加不确定。全球经济危机抑制了需求，而全球液化天然气产能的增加和美国非常规天然气产量的激增增加了供应，导致“天然气供过于求”的局面可能持续到本世纪末。与此同时，关于天然气作为通往低碳未来的“桥梁”或“过渡”燃料的作用的争论仍在继续。最近，由于日本发生的事件，人们正在重新评估所谓的“核能复兴”，这可能导致新一轮的“天然气热潮”（或者更糟的是煤炭）。所有这一切都发生在英国（以及更广泛的欧盟）面临越来越依赖天然气进口的时候。然而，目前的英国能源战略预计天然气消费量将下降，但这些预测的前提是提高效率节约，可再生能源的大幅增长，新核电站的建设以及碳捕获和储存技术的部署。如果这一战略失败或部分措施被推迟，那么英国的天然气需求和进口依赖可能会大大高于目前的预测。因此，对地缘政治驱动因素、治理挑战和影响当前和未来全球天然气安全的风险有一个清晰的认识，对英国的能源安全至关重要，直到21世纪20年代末及以后。虽然对能源安全的研究相当多，但我们认为在评估全球天然气安全方面还存在不足。首先，由于它主要集中在石油和天然气的材料和商业性质有很大不同；其次，因为它主要以国家为中心，未能认识到非国家行为体、公司和市场的重要性；第三，它常常无法解释治理意味着什么；第四，因为其中大部分缺乏概念框架和支持方法。在项目的第一阶段，我们通过开发天然气安全的“地缘政治经济方法”来解决这些缺陷，该方法结合了：a)能源安全的地缘政治分析，b)经济地理学的关系方法，以及c)网络和多层次治理以及标量政治的工作。在第二阶段，该框架将应用于三个案例研究，重点关注影响全球天然气行业主要区域市场天然气安全的关键问题：欧亚天然气出口到欧洲，北美非常规天然气革命，以及亚洲液化天然气的全球化。这些案例研究采用了三部分方法。首先，有一个图书馆和访谈研究阶段；其次，将收集到的信息与经济地理学的关系方法结合起来，分析这三个部门在其区域市场中的商品链和全球生产网络；第三，对三个市场中的治理网络进行识别和映射，并使用社会网络分析来量化网络中行动者之间权力关系的相对强度。在第三阶段，该框架用于绘制英国天然气行业的治理网络，第二阶段的研究结果用于确定与英国天然气进口依赖程度较高相关的各种能源安全和治理挑战。该项目针对四个受众：能源研究界；英国和欧盟负责能源安全、低碳能源转型和能源治理的政策制定者；对天然气工业和发电感兴趣的商界人士，以及致力于能源安全和治理问题的社会科学家。计划举办一系列研讨会和会议活动以接触这些听众，项目产出包括针对能源研究、人文地理和更广泛的社会科学界的学术期刊文章、4次政策简报和一本关于天然气的书。

The prospects for the future demand for natural gas and its role in the global energy mix are more uncertain now than they have ever been. The global economic crisis has dampened demand, while increased global LNG capacity and surging unconventional gas production in the US has increased supply, resulting in a 'gas glut' that could last to the end of this decade. At the same time, debate continues about the role of natural gas as a 'bridging' or 'transition' fuel to a low carbon future. Most recently, as result of events in Japan, the so-called 'nuclear renaissance' is being reassessed, potentially resulting in a renewed 'dash for gas' (or worse coal). All of this at a time when the UK (and the EU more generally) is facing increasing gas import dependency. However, current UK energy strategy projects a decline in natural gas consumption, but these projections are premised on increased efficiency savings, substantial growth of renewable energy, the construction of new nuclear and the deployment of carbon capture and storage technology. If this strategy fails or elements are delayed, then UK gas demand and import dependency could be substantially higher than currently projected. Therefore, it is critical to the UK's energy security to develop a clear understanding of the geopolitical drivers, governance challenges and risks shaping current and future global gas security through to the late 2020s and beyond.While there is considerable research on energy security, we maintain that it is deficient when it comes to assessing global gas security. First, because it is largely focused on oil and the material and commercial nature of natural gas is very different; second, because it is predominantly state-centric and fails to appreciate the importance of non-states actors, companies and markets; third, it often fails to explain what governance means; and, fourth, because much of it lacks a conceptual framework and supporting methodology. In the Phase 1 of the project, we address these deficiencies by developing a 'geopolitical economy approach' to gas security that combines: a) geopolitical analysis of energy security, b) the relational approach of economic geography and c) work on network and multi-level governance and scalar politics. In Phase 2, this framework is applied to three case studies that focus on the key issues shaping gas security in the major regional markets that dominate the global gas industry: Eurasian gas exports to Europe, the unconventional gas revolution in North America, and the globalization of the LNG in Asia. A three-part methodology is used to produce these case studies. Firstly, there is a phase of library and interview research; secondly, the information gathered is used together with the relation approach to economic geography to analyse the commodity chains and global production networks in each of the three sectors in their regional markets; and, thirdly, the governance networks in the three markets are identified and mapped and social network analysis is used to quantify the relative strength of the power relations between actors in the networks.In Phase 3, the framework is used to map the governance network in the UK gas industry and the findings from Phase 2 are used to identify the various energy security and governance challenges associated with higher levels of UK gas import dependency. The project is aimed at four audiences: the energy studies community; policy makers responsible for energy security, low carbon energy transition and energy governance in the UK and EU; the business community with interests in the gas industry and power generation and social scientists working on energy security and governance issues. A range of seminars and conference activities are planned to access these audiences and project outputs include academic journal articles aimed at the energy studies, human geography and wider social science communities, 4 policy briefings and a book on Natural Gas.