Managing Finance for a Net-Zero Transition: A Global Political Economy of Risk Governance in Climate Finance

如果各国要实现日益雄心勃勃的国家自主贡献（NDCs——减少国家排放和适应气候变化影响的非约束性承诺）以应对气候危机，就需要调动大量资金。全球北方国家和全球金融机构现在根据《巴黎协定》承诺，每年动员1000亿美元提供气候融资，支持全球南方国家。考虑到所需的资金规模，各州利用公共资金动员私人资金，以实现“净零排放”的目标。为此，全球北方行动者使用一套技术工具，将财政分配的不确定性转化为可计算的风险。因此，全球公共行为体越来越多地通过“金融风险”卷入气候治理的“金融化”，这一趋势仍未得到充分研究。为了探究金融风险的政治经济学与国家自主贡献融资之间的关系，该项目将以全球政治经济学（GPE）和全球环境政治学（GPE）的理论见解为基础。使用建构主义的视角来理解主导话语的构建和影响，我将追踪全球金融机构的风险动员如何塑造气候融资的分配——特别是研究气候投资基金（CIF）在印度的缓解融资。CIF的缓解融资标志着以“去风险”状态为中心的发展正统观念的出现（Gabor， 2021a和2021b）。CIF气候融资在印度的投资之所以被选中，是因为CIF是气候融资的主要多边机构，可以说是混合融资方法的主要推动力。与此同时，自2015年以来，印度从全球捐助组织获得的气候资金流入最多，平均每年达到26亿美元（CIF, 2022a）。自成立以来，仅CIF就向印度提供了7.94亿美元，其中联合融资95.4亿美元（CIF, 2022a）。我将利用这一案例研究来探讨金融风险如何影响基金组织在印度的缓解融资分配，以及这种气候治理模式对分配的影响。我将采用一种过程追踪方法，从全球北方的捐助者到CIF，再到印度，“跟踪资金”。这将使我能够追踪风险概念和工具如何影响公共行为者如何看待他们应该在哪里花费资金，哪些项目变得清晰，以及这如何影响气候资金分配的分配结果。分析将主要是定性的，将风险概念化为“社会事实”，以揭示CIF和主要合作伙伴组织如何动员风险。该研究将包括在缓解融资流程的决策点对关键行为者进行访谈，从其开始到实施，以理论化他们如何动员风险工具来决定在哪里分配资本以及为什么分配资本。此外，与来自受CIF缓解融资影响的社区的个人的访谈将使我能够概念化其在印度的分配后果。使用这种方法，我将回答以下研究问题——“金融风险的政治经济学在多大程度上影响气候融资的治理，以及对印度气候融资的分配影响是什么？”GPE通过强调将气候治理中看似技术性的现象政治化，为解读净零排放转型的政治提供了理论资源。通过这样做，该项目将为国家自主贡献融资的社会经济影响提供宝贵的见解。此外，该项目将提供资源来理解和参与复杂和抽象的风险表示。

Large volumes of finance need to be mobilised if countries are to achieve increasingly ambitious Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs- non-binding commitments to reduce national emissions and adapt to the impactsof climate change) to address the climate crisis. States in the Global North and global financial institutions are now committed by the Paris Agreement mobilising $100 billion per year to providing climate finance to support the Global South. Given the volume of finance required, states use public funds to mobilise private finance to meet the target of achieving 'net-zero'. To do this, Global North actors use a set of technical instruments that translate the uncertainties of financial allocation into calculable risks. Global public actors are therefore increasingly embroiled in the 'financialisation' of climate governance through 'financial risk', a trend that remains understudied.To interrogate the relationship between the political economy of financial risk and NDC financing, this project will build on the theoretical insights of Global Political Economy (GPE) and Global Environmental Politics (GPE). Using a constructivist lens to understand the construction and effects of dominant discourses, I will trace how the mobilisation of risk by global financialinstitutions is shaping the allocation of climate finance- in particular studying the Climate Investment Fund's (CIF) mitigation financing in India. The CIF's mitigation finance is emblematic of the emergence of a development orthodoxy focused around the 'de-risking' state (Gabor, 2021a & 2021b). The investment of CIF climate finance in India has been selected as the CIF is a principal multilateral institution of climate finance and has arguably been a primary driver of the blended finance approach. India, meanwhile, has experienced the largest inflow of climate finance from global donor organisations totalling $2.6bn per year on average since 2015 (CIF, 2022a). CIF alone has provided $794 million, with $9.54 billion of co-financing, to India since its establishment (CIF, 2022a). I will use this case study to interrogate how financial risk impacts the allocation of the Fund's mitigation financing inIndia, and the distributional impact of this model of climate governance.I will employ a process tracing methodology, 'following the finance' from the Global North donors through the CIF, and to India. This will allow me to trace how risk concepts and tools is influencing how public actors perceive where they should spend capital, which projects are rendered legible, and how this impacts the distribution consequences of climate finance allocation. The analysis will be principally qualitative, conceptualising risk as a 'social fact', to unpick how it is mobilised by the CIF and key partner organisations. The research will include conducting interviews with key actors at decision points in the flow of mitigating financing, for its inception to implementation, to theorise how they mobilise risk tools to make decisions about where to allocate capital and why. Furthermore, interviews with individuals from the communities impacted CIF mitigation financing will allow me to conceptualise its distributional consequences in India. Using this approach, I will answer the following research question- 'To what extent does the political economy of financial risk impact the governance of climate finance, and with what distributional impact on climate finance in India?'.GPE, through its stress on politicising seemingly technical phenomena in climate governance, offers theoretical resources to unpick the politics of the net-zero transition. By doing so, the project will provide valuable insights into the socio-economic impacts of NDC financing. Furthermore, the projectwill provide resources to understand and engage with complex and abstract representations of risk.