Integrative Modelling for Shelf Seas Biogeochemistry

陆架海具有重大的社会意义，可提供各种货物(如渔业、可再生能源、运输)和服务(如碳和营养循环和生物多样性)。同时，它们承受着来自人类活动的巨大压力，这些活动可能对这类系统的基本功能产生重大影响。例如，气候变化将导致层化和温度的大范围变化，而大气二氧化碳水平的增加将导致海洋酸化，对海洋生物地球化学产生重大影响。同时，人类直接活动(例如捕鱼和富营养化)的组合直接影响碳和营养的生物地球化学循环。我们对陆架海的生物地球化学了解有限，许多过程也知之甚少，特别是碳和营养物质的生物地球化学收支。关键问题包括英国大陆架是碳和氮的来源还是汇，仍然没有答案。此外，我们对生物地球化学循环的一些关键的物理、化学和生物控制方面的知识也存在差距。通过将经验知识综合到定量描述中，计算机模型允许科学家调查生态、生物地球化学、人为压力和气候的功能及其相互作用。总体科学目标是加强我们评估对生物地球化学循环的控制的能力，从而在不确定的情况下量化碳、氮、磷和硅的预算，包括它们对气候、自然变异性和人为胁迫的反应。战略目标的基础是开发一个新的陆架海生物地球化学模型系统，再加上最先进的物理模型，能够预测从几天到几十年的环境变化对区域的影响。我们将利用合作伙伴的综合专门知识，为欧洲区域海洋生态系统模式建立一个新的共同模式版本。利用SSB计划产生的现有数据和新的生物地球化学过程理解，我们将改进现有的过程模型，并适当地为物理模型和生物模型开发新的过程模型。我们将与致力于整个SSB计划的观察型和实验型科学家开展合作，以便最大限度地利用现有的专业知识。这将构成新的社区模式系统的基础，该系统将得到支持，并免费提供给更广泛的英国和国际研究社区。合成的模型将用于模拟英国大陆架过去、现在和未来的生物地球化学状态。总而言之，该项目将提供新的建模工具，提供关键信息的估计，以帮助解决关键的科学问题，并更好地了解大陆架海洋在应对全球变化和直接人为压力时的功能。预测工具和新知识的结合将为海洋政策的制定和执行以及海洋预报系统的实施奠定基础。

Shelf seas are of major societal importance providing a diverse range of goods (e.g. fisheries, renewable energy, transport) and services (e.g. carbon and nutrient cycling and biodiversity). At the same time they are under enormous pressures from man's activities which may have significant impact on the basic function of such systems. For example climate change will lead to large scale changes in stratification and temperature, while increasing atmospheric CO2 levels will lead to acidification of the oceans with significant impacts on ocean biogeochemistry. Simultaneously combinations of direct human activities (e.g. fishing, and eutrophication) directly impact the biogeochemical cycles of carbon and nutrients. Our understanding of the biogeochemistry of the shelf seas is limited and many processes are poorly understood, in particular the biogeochemical budgets of carbon and nutrients. The key questions include is the UK continental shelf a source or sink for carbon and nitrogen remain unanswered. In addition there are gaps in our knowledge of some of the key physical, chemical and biological controls on biogeochemical cycles. By synthesising empirical knowledge into quantitative descriptions, computer models allow scientists to investigate the functioning of, and interactions between, ecology, biogeochemistry, anthropogenic pressures and climate. The overarching scientific goal is to enhance our capacity to assess the controls on biogeochemical cycling and hence to quantify with uncertainties the budgets of carbon, nitrogen, phosphorous and silicon including their response to climate, natural variability and anthropogenic stress. The underpinning strategic goal is to develop a new shelf seas biogeochemical model system, coupled to a state of the art physical model, capable of predicting regional impacts of environmental change from days to decades. We will establish a new common model version for the European Regional Seas Ecosystem Model (ERSEM), drawing from the combined expertise of the partners. Exploiting, existing data, and new biogeochemical process understanding generated by the SSB program we will improve existing process models and develop new ones as appropriate, for both the physical and biological models. We will develop collaborations with the observational and experimentally focussed scientists working on the entire SSB programme in order to make best use of the available expertise. This will form the basis of the new community model system which will be supported and made freely available to the wider UK and international research communities. The resultant model will be used to make simulations of past present and potential future sates of the biogeochemistry of the UK shelf. In summary, the project will provide new modelling tools which provide estimates of crucial information to help resolve key scientific questions as well as provide a better understanding of the functioning of the shelf seas as they respond to global change and direct anthropogenic pressures. The combination of predictive tools and new knowledge will underpin the development and implementation of marine policy and the implementation of marine forecast systems.