RAGNARoCC: Radiatively active gases from the North Atlantic Region and Climate Change

我们的目标是了解从北大西洋到大气的温室气体的源和汇有多大，变化有多大。我们的目标是能够描述这些在最近的过去是如何变化的，以及它们在未来不同气候情景下将如何变化。大部分工作将集中在二氧化碳方面，我们将对北大西洋碳循环的自然和人为成分进行全面的预算编制，并了解二氧化碳的海气通量在区域、季节和多年变化的原因。另外还将进行CH4和N2O的观测和估计它们的区域通量。我们将与欧洲和美国的伙伴机构合作，通过自愿观测船网络和固定地点，对二氧化碳的海气通量进行地面测量。这些将与内部碳含量的水文剖面观测综合起来。因此，我们将获得对人为碳的吸收、目前储存和净输送的准确估计，以及北大西洋自然吸收和释放大气二氧化碳的变异性。在根据这些观测作出直接估计的同时，将开发这些通量的正演和逆演模式（大气和海洋两种）。主要的假设是：(1)该地区过去的二氧化碳吸收和变率可以通过对大西洋深层碳储量的检查来量化；(2)目前观测到的二氧化碳吸收变率是由气候变化驱动的生物和物理过程的组合造成的，气候模式中嵌入的海洋碳模拟捕获了主要因素；当前和未来)是由气候系统内部变率和外部人为强迫的组合造成的，其比例我们将确定。目标是(1)模板操作通量的预测温室气体进出的n .大西洋这个理事会的一部分实现,结合ECMWF(2)了解,水槽,可用于改善预测海洋二氧化碳的水槽会改变未来,和(3)定量的理解如何以及为什么大西洋的人为二氧化碳改变了由于气候变化在过去的100年。

Our object is to understand how large, and how variable, are sources and sinks of greenhouse gases to the atmosphere from the North Atlantic. We aim to be able to describe how these have changed in the recent past and how they will change in the future under different climate scenarios. Most effort will be concentrated on carbon dioxide, and we will deliver a comprehensive budgeting of natural and anthropogenic components of the carbon cycle in the North Atlantic and understanding of why the air-sea fluxes of CO2 vary regionally, seasonally and multi-annually. Observations of CH4 and N2O and estimates of their regional fluxes will additionally be made. We, in collaboration with our partner institutions in Europe and the US, will undertake surface measurements of CO2 air-sea fluxes made from networks of voluntary observing ships and at fixed sites. These will be synthesised with observations from hydrographic sections of the interior carbon content. We will thus obtain accurate estimates of the uptake, present storage, and net transport of anthropogenic carbon, and variability in the natural uptake and release of atmospheric CO2 by the N. Atlantic. In parallel with direct estimates made from these observations, forward and inverse models (of both atmospheric and oceanic kinds) of these fluxes will be developed. The main hypotheses are (1) that past uptake and variability of CO2 in the region can be quantified by examination of the deep carbon inventory in the Atlantic, (2) that the present observed variability in CO2 uptake is due to a combination of biological and physical processes that are driven by climatic variations, the main factors being captured by ocean carbon simulations embedded in climate models, and (3) these variations (past, present and future) are due to a combination of variability internal to the climate system and external anthropogenic forcing - in proportions we will determine. Objectives are (1) a template for operational forecasting of the fluxes of GHGs into and out of the N. Atlantic, to be implemented as part of ICOS and in combination with ECMWF (2) an understanding of that sink that can be used to improve projections of how the ocean CO2 sink will change in the future, and (3) a quantitative understanding of how and why Atlantic Ocean uptake of anthropogenic CO2 has changed as a result of climate change over the last 100 years.