Planning for floods and droughts in the face of climate change - a continuum approach

在过去的十年里，与水相关的风险已经成为英国社会面临的气候变化的关键症状。据估计，洪水对英国经济造成的损失可能在25年内达到100亿英镑，未来30-100年，与降水相关的风险将在整个英国增加2-4倍(Foresight，2004)。反复发生的备受瞩目的洪灾事件导致公众和政策部门对这一风险的认识增强。然而，与洪水相对应的干旱却少得多的关注。尽管2003年发生了一场全欧洲范围的干旱，造成了87亿欧元的相关损失，但这仍是事实(欧盟委员会，2007年)。乍一看，水太多的危害可能与水太少的威胁并存，这似乎与直觉相反，但这在英国是一个新兴的现象。2007年洪灾之前发生了两年的热浪和干旱(皮特，2008年)，2009-10年，英国的降雨量低于长期平均水平，一些地区还伴随着干旱(欧共体委员会，2011年)。正如全球变暖正在导致更温和、更潮湿的冬季一样，全球气温的上升也可能导致陆地表面更高水平的蒸发，导致一些地区发生干旱和下沉。虽然气候变化的趋势是可识别的，但预测更成问题；洪水和干旱的特点都是高度的不确定性、不可预测性和突发性。因此，有效的缓解战略需要多层面的、涉及相关利益攸关方的、跨越监管、文化认知和规范领域的新颖应对措施。该研究项目采用了一种综合的方法来理解气候变化对水环境的扰动。这是通过将水管理视为从供应过剩到供应不足的连续统一体来实现的，而不是将重点放在极端供水的明显表现上，即洪水和干旱。通过采用这种视角，可以确定跨越不同形式的与水有关的风险的共性，以及有效管理和缓解的障碍。通过使用传统和新的研究战略收集和分析主要和次要数据，将建立一个基于证据的框架，以协助各机构和各利益攸关方群体的行为作出决策。这一框架应根据一系列学科的学术文献进行初步文献审查，这些文献包括：风险感知和沟通；关于水流和集水区的自然科学和工程学观点；关于治理和监管的政治和法律观点；关于资源利用、能力和决策以及国家/国际最佳做法的风险管理和战略观点。从与相关利益攸关方的深入访谈中收集的丰富数据将为研究战略增加定性方面的内容。为约克郡地区的一项案例研究从社交媒体获取的实时旱涝数据将对拟议框架作出新的贡献，允许将从利益攸关方的看法、沟通和行为的实时数据中得出的推论纳入不同程度的旱涝风险。实际上，该框架应将学术、政策和实践成果转化为一种可用于改进利益攸关方行为和决策的工具。然后，可通过两个验证讲习班对这一综合框架进行测试，邀请利益攸关方参加，从而确保这项研究成果的稳健性。在研究项目的后期阶段，研究人员和研究伙伴将探讨进一步试验该框架的机会，以及进一步发展这一综合方法的潜在资金来源和合作伙伴。

Over the past ten years, water related risks have emerged as key symptoms of climate change faced by UK society. It has been estimated that flood damage could account for £10bn to the UK economy in 25 years and that risks relating to precipitation, over the next 30-100 years, will increase by 2-4 times across the UK (Foresight, 2004). Repeated high profile flooding events have resulted in heightened public and policy perceptions of this risk. However, the counterpart of flooding, drought, has received much less attention. This is despite the fact that 2003 saw a Europe wide drought with associated costs of Euro8.7bn (Commission of the EC, 2007). Whilst at first glance, it appears counter-intuitive that the hazard of too much water might co-exist with the threat of too little water, this is an emerging phenomenon in the UK. The 2007 floods were preceded by two years of heat waves and droughts (Pitt, 2008) and in 2009-10, the UK faced rainfall levels lower than the long term average and accompanying drought in some areas (Commission of the EC, 2011). Just as global warming is leading to milder, wetter winters, so too, increases in global temperatures are also likely to lead to greater levels of evaporation from the land surface resulting in drought in some areas as well as subsidence. Whilst trends in climate change are discernible, forecasting is more problematic; both flooding and drought are characterised by high levels of uncertainty, unpredictability and emergence. Consequently, novel responses that are multi-dimensional, involving relevant stakeholders and spanning regulative, cultural-cognitive and normative domains are required for effective mitigation strategies. This research project adopts an integrative approach to understanding climate change perturbations to the water environment. This is achieved through viewing water management as a continuum from over-supply to under-supply, rather than focussing upon overt manifestations of water supply extremes i.e. flood and drought. By adopting this lens, commonalities which extend across different forms of water related risk can be identified, as can barriers to effective management and mitigation. Through the collection and analysis of primary and secondary data using both traditional and novel research strategies, an evidence based framework will be developed to assist decision making across institutions and behaviours across stakeholder groups. This framework shall be informed by an initial literature review drawing upon academic literature across a range of disciplines, including: risk perception and communication; natural sciences and engineering perspectives on water flows and catchment; political and legal perspectives on governance and regulation, risk management and strategic perspectives on resource utilisation, capabilities and decision making and national/international best practice. Rich data gathered from in-depth interviews with relevant stakeholders shall add a qualitative dimension to the research strategy. Live data on flood/drought captured from social media for a case study in the Yorkshire region shall make a novel contribution to the proposed framework by allowing the incorporation of inferences derived from real time data on stakeholder perceptions, communications and behaviours to varying levels of flood and drought risk. In effect, the framework shall translate the academic, policy and practice findings into a tool which can be utilised to enhance stakeholder behaviour and decision making. This integrated framework can then be tested through two validation workshops where stakeholders will be invited participants thereby ensuring the robustness of this research output. During the later stages of the research project, opportunities for further trialling of the framework as well as potential sources and partners for funding the further development of this integrated approach will be explored by the researcher and the research partners.