The Amazon hydrological cycle: past, present and future

亚马逊水文循环:过去、现在和未来

基本信息

  • 批准号:
    NE/K01353X/1
  • 负责人:
  • 金额:
    $ 84.69万
  • 依托单位:
  • 依托单位国家:
    英国
  • 项目类别:
    Research Grant
  • 财政年份:
    2014
  • 资助国家:
    英国
  • 起止时间:
    2014 至 无数据
  • 项目状态:
    已结题

项目摘要

As one of the major centers of convection, tropical South America is an important component of the tropical (Walker Circulation) and also the global atmospheric circulation (Hadley Cell), and hydrological cycle. This is for example illustrated by the Amazon river who discharges approximately 17 % of all freshwater to the oceans. Tropical South America also hosts one of the largest forested areas in the world which is a huge carbon store amenable to fast release to the atmosphere, e.g. by forest destruction or drought-induced feed-backs.Existing records of the hydrological cycle, the Amazon river discharge at Obidos, integrating 77% of the Amazon catchment area, and precipitation climatologies, reveal that the Amazon basin hydrological cycle exhibits a substantial intensifying trend over approximately the last two decades. The increase occurs mainly during the rainy season leading to an increase in the seasonal amplitude of river discharge. There is an even stronger trend in the daily maxima in precipitation and a decreasing trend of minimum daily precipitation pointing to an intensification of rain and drought events as well. Tropical South America has indeed witnessed severe droughts in 2005 and 2010 as well as strong flooding, most recently in 2009 and 2012.Both because of substantial damage to livelihood by droughts and floods as well as from the perspective of global climate change, understanding changes in the Amazon hydrological cycle is important. However our understanding of ongoing changes of the Amazon's hydrological cycle is poor. The main reason is that there are many controls, which are poorly constrained by data. They include external factors, like water vapor input via the main air stream from the tropical Atlantic or changes of the location of the inter-tropical convergence zone, as well as internal factors like changes in rainforest functioning specifically the recirculation of water back to the atmosphere via forests. The purpose of this proposal is to combine novel and existing data, with complimentary modelling and attribution techniques to understand ongoing and past trends of the Amazon hydrological cycle in order to help predict what to expect in the future. Our proposed work builds on two recent results from our research. First we have discovered that the tree species Cedrela odorata exhibits very clear annual rings and that the oxygen isotope 18O in tree ring cellulose is closely linked to the large-scale hydrological cycle of the Amazon. Specifically there is a strong correlation between 18O recorded in eight trees at a Bolivian Amazon site and Amazon river discharge at Obidos. Secondly we have recently succeeded to use atmospheric air parcel trajectory and remote sensing data of vegetation type to estimate the contribution of vegetation to water vapor in the air and thus recirculation of precipitation. We therefore propose to complement the Bolivian 18O precipitation record to further five sites across the basin to produce a good spatio-temporal coverage of precipitation 18O and indirectly precipitation over the last two centuries. Secondly we propose a modelling analysis employing both a climate vegetation model with isotopes to examine a range of processes and their effect on precipitation and 18O in precipitation and their time trends, and in parallel a back-trajectory approach to link observed isotope signatures along air parcel trajectories to estimate changes in water recycling in the basin. With our approach we expect to be able to pinpoint the causes of the intensification of the Amazon hydrological cycle over the last two decades and to what extent they are due to changes in functioning of the land vegetation and therefore to permit predictions of what to expect over the next decades. We also expect to be able to pinpoint the causes of the century long trends in tree ring based precipitation 18O and what they tell us about what causes longer term changes of the system.
南美洲热带地区作为主要的对流中心之一,是热带(Walker环流)的重要组成部分,也是全球大气环流(Hadley Cell)和水文循环的重要组成部分。例如,亚马逊河就说明了这一点,它向海洋排放了大约17%的淡水。热带南美洲还拥有世界上最大的森林区域之一,这是一个巨大的碳库,可以通过森林破坏或干旱反馈等方式快速释放到大气中。现有的水文循环记录、奥比多斯亚马逊河流量(整合了亚马逊集水区77%的面积)以及降水气候学记录显示,亚马逊盆地的水文循环在过去大约20年里呈现出显著增强的趋势。这一增加主要发生在雨季,导致河流流量的季节性幅度增加。降水量日最大值有更强的趋势,日最小降水量有减少的趋势,表明降雨和干旱事件也在加剧。热带南美洲在2005年和2010年确实经历了严重的干旱,最近的一次是在2009年和2012年。由于干旱和洪水对生计造成了重大破坏,从全球气候变化的角度来看,了解亚马逊水文循环的变化非常重要。然而,我们对亚马逊水文循环正在发生的变化的了解很差。主要原因是控件较多,受数据约束较差。它们包括外部因素,如通过热带大西洋主要气流输入的水蒸气或热带辐合带位置的变化,以及内部因素,如热带雨林功能的变化,特别是通过森林将水重新循环回大气。这项建议的目的是将新的和现有的数据与补充的建模和归类技术相结合,以了解亚马逊水文循环的当前和过去趋势,以帮助预测未来会发生什么。我们提出的工作建立在我们研究的两个最新结果的基础上。首先,我们发现香柏树种表现出非常清晰的年轮,树轮纤维素中的氧同位素18O与亚马逊的大规模水文循环密切相关。具体地说,在玻利维亚亚马逊网站的八棵树上记录的18O与奥比多斯的亚马逊河流流量之间存在着强烈的相关性。其次,我们最近成功地利用大气气团轨迹和植被类型遥感数据来估计植被对空气中水汽的贡献,从而估计降水的再循环。因此,我们建议对玻利维亚的18O降水记录进行补充,使之在整个盆地的另外五个地点得到良好的时空复盖,涵盖过去两个世纪的降水18O和间接降水。其次,我们提出了一种模式分析,既使用了带有同位素的气候植被模式来检查一系列过程及其对降水和降水中18O及其时间趋势的影响,又同时使用了一种反向轨迹方法来将观测到的同位素特征与气团轨迹联系起来,以估计盆地水循环的变化。通过我们的方法,我们希望能够查明过去20年亚马逊水文循环加剧的原因,以及这些原因在多大程度上是由于陆地植被功能的变化,从而能够预测未来几十年的情况。我们还希望能够找出树木年轮降水180度长达一个世纪的趋势的原因,以及它们告诉我们什么会导致系统的长期变化。

项目成果

期刊论文数量(10)
专著数量(0)
科研奖励数量(0)
会议论文数量(0)
专利数量(0)
Recent intensification of Amazon flooding extremes driven by strengthened Walker circulation.
  • DOI:
    10.1126/sciadv.aat8785
  • 发表时间:
    2018-09
  • 期刊:
  • 影响因子:
    13.6
  • 作者:
    Barichivich J;Gloor E;Peylin P;Brienen RJW;Schöngart J;Espinoza JC;Pattnayak KC
  • 通讯作者:
    Pattnayak KC
Oxygen isotopes in tree rings show good coherence between species and sites in Bolivia
  • DOI:
    10.1016/j.gloplacha.2015.09.008
  • 发表时间:
    2015-10-01
  • 期刊:
  • 影响因子:
    3.9
  • 作者:
    Baker, Jessica C. A.;Hunt, Sarah F. P.;Brienen, Roel J. W.
  • 通讯作者:
    Brienen, Roel J. W.
An Assessment of Land-Atmosphere Interactions over South America Using Satellites, Reanalysis, and Two Global Climate Models
  • DOI:
    10.1175/jhm-d-20-0132.1
  • 发表时间:
    2021-04-01
  • 期刊:
  • 影响因子:
    3.8
  • 作者:
    Baker, Jessica C. A.;de Souza, Dayana Castilho;Spracklen, Dominick, V
  • 通讯作者:
    Spracklen, Dominick, V
Robust Amazon precipitation projections in climate models that capture realistic land-atmosphere interactions
气候模型中稳健的亚马逊降水预测可捕捉真实的陆地-大气相互作用
Questioning the Influence of Sunspots on Amazon Hydrology: Even a Broken Clock Tells the Right Time Twice a Day
  • DOI:
    10.1002/2017gl076889
  • 发表时间:
    2018-02-16
  • 期刊:
  • 影响因子:
    5.2
  • 作者:
    Baker, J. C. A.;Gloor, M.;Brienen, R. J. W.
  • 通讯作者:
    Brienen, R. J. W.
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Emanuel Gloor其他文献

Synthesis of the land carbon fl uxes of the Amazon region between 2010 and 2020
2010年至2020年亚马逊地区陆地碳弹性通量综合
  • DOI:
  • 发表时间:
  • 期刊:
  • 影响因子:
    0
  • 作者:
    T. Rosan;S. Sitch;Michael O. Sullivan;L. Basso;Chris Wilson;Camila Silva;Emanuel Gloor;Dominic Fawcett;Viola H. A. Heinrich;Jefferson G. Souza;Francisco Gilney;Silva Bezerra;C. Randow;L. Mercado;L. Gatti;A. Wiltshire;P. Friedlingstein;Julia Pongratz;Clemens Schwingshackl;Mathew Williams;L. Smallman;Jürgen Knauer;Vivek K. Arora;Daniel Kennedy;Hanqin Tian;Wenping Yuan;A. K. Jain;Stefanie Falk;Benjamin Poulter;A. Arneth;Qing Sun;S. Zaehle;Anthony P. Walker;Etsushi Kato;Xu Yue;Ana Bastos;P. Ciais;J. Wigneron;Clément Albergel;Luiz;E. O. C. Aragão
  • 通讯作者:
    E. O. C. Aragão
Large range sizes link fast life histories with high species richness across wet tropical tree floras
在潮湿的热带树木植物区系中,较大的种内居群大小与快速的生活史和高物种丰富度相关联。
  • DOI:
    10.1038/s41598-024-84367-3
  • 发表时间:
    2025-02-08
  • 期刊:
  • 影响因子:
    3.900
  • 作者:
    Timothy R. Baker;Stephen Adu-Bredu;Kofi Affum-Baffoe;Shin-ichiro Aiba;Perpetra Akite;Miguel Alexiades;Everton Almeida;Edmar Almeida de Oliveira;Esteban Alvarez Davila;Christian Amani;Ana Andrade;Luiz Aragao;Alejandro Araujo-Murakami;Eric Arets;Luzmila Arroyo;Peter Ashton;Suspense A. Averti Ifo;Gerardo A. C. Aymard;Michel Baisie;William Balee;Michael Balinga;Lindsay F. Banin;Olaf Banki;Christopher Baraloto;Jorcely Barroso;Jean-Francois Bastin;Hans Beeckman;Serge Begne;Natacha Nssi Bengone;Nicholas Berry;Wemo Betian;Vincent Bezard;Lilian Blanc;Pascal Boeckx;Damien Bonal;Frans Bongers;Francis Q. Brearley;Roel Brienen;Foster Brown;Musalmah Bt. Nasaradin;Benoit Burban;David F. R. P. Burslem;Plinio Camargo;Jose Luis Camargo;Wendeson Castro;Carlos Ceron;Victor Chama Moscoso;Colin Chapman;Jerome Chave;Eric Chezeaux;Murray Collins;James Comiskey;David Coomes;Fernando Cornejo Valverde;Flavia R. C. Costa;Aida Cuni-Sanchez;Lola da Costa;Douglas C. Daly;Martin Dančák;Armandu Daniels;Greta Dargie;Stuart Davies;Charles De Canniere;Thales de Haulleville;Jhon del Aguila Pasquel;Geraldine Derroire;Kyle G. Dexter;Anthony Di Fiore;Marie-Noel K. Djuikouo;Jean-Louis Doucet;Vincent Droissart;Gerald Eilu;Thaise Emillio;Julien Engel;Bocko Yannick Enock;Fidele Evouna Ondo;Corneille Ewango;Sophie Fauset;Ted R. Feldpausch;Muhammad Fitriadi;Gerardo Flores Llampazo;Ernest G. Foli;Gabriella Fredriksson;David R. Galbraith;Martin Gilpin;Emanuel Gloor;Christelle Gonmadje;Rene Guillen Villaroel;Jefferson Hall;Keith C. Hamer;Alan Hamilton;Olivier Hardy;Terese Hart;Radim Hédl;Rafael Herrera;Niro Higuchi;Claude Marcel Hladik;Eurídice Honorio Coronado;Isau Huamantupa-Chuquimaco;Walter Huaraca Huasco;Wannes Hubau;Muhammad Idhamsyah;Sascha A. Ismail;Kath Jeffery;Eliana Jimenez;Tommaso Jucker;Elizabeth Kearsley;Lip Khoon Kho;Timothy Killeen;Kanehiro Kitayama;William Laurance;Susan Laurance;Miguel Leal;Simon L. Lewis;Stanislav Lhota;Jeremy Lindsell;Gabriela Lopez-Gonzalez;Jon Lovett;Richard Lowe;William E. Magnusson;Jean-Remy Makana;Yadvinder Malhi;Beatriz Marimon;Ben Hur Marimon Junior;Andrew Marshall;Colin Maycock;Faustin Mbayu;Casimiro Mendoza;Irina Mendoza Polo;Faizah Metali;Vianet Mihindou;Abel Monteagudo-Mendoza;Sam Moore;Patrick Mucunguzi;Jacques Mukinzi;Pantaleo Munishi;Laszlo Nagy;Petrus Naisso;David Neill;Adriano Nogueira Lima;Percy Nunez Vargas;Lucas Ojo;Walter Palacios;Nadir Pallqui Camacho;Alexander Parada Gutierrez;Julie Peacock;Kelvin S.-H. Peh;Antonio Pena Cruz;Colin Pendry;Toby Pennington;Maria Cristina Penuela-Mora;Pascal Petronelli;Oliver L. Phillips;Georgia Pickavance;G. John Pipoly;Nigel Pitman;Axel Dalberg Poulsen;Ghillean T. Prance;Adriana Prieto;Richard B. Primack;Lan Qie;Simon A. Queenborough;Terry Sunderland;Carlos Quesada;Freddy Ramirez Arevalo;Hirma Ramirez-Angulo;Jan Reitsma;Maxime Réjou-Méchain;Anand Roopsind;Francesco Rovero;Ervan Rutishauser;Kamariah Abu Salim;Rafael Salomao;Ismayadi Samsoedin;Muhd Shahruney Saparudin;Juliana Schietti;Ricardo A. Segovia;Julio Serrano;Rafizah Serudia;Douglas Sheil;Natalino Silva;Javier Silva Espejo;Marcos Silveira;Murielle Simo-Droissart;James Singh;Bonaventure Sonké;Thaise Emilio Lopes De Sousa;Juliana Stropp;Rahayu Sukri;Terry Sunderland;Martin Svátek;Michael Swaine;Hermann Taedoumg;Joey Talbot;Sylvester Tan;James Taplin;David Taylor;Hans ter Steege;John Terborgh;Armando Torres-Lezama;John Tshibamba Mukendi;Darlington Tuagben;Peter van de Meer;Geertje van der Heijden;Peter van der Hout;Mark van Nieuwstadt;Bert van Ulft;Rodolfo Vasquez Martinez;Ronald Vernimmen;Barbara Vinceti;Simone Vieira;Ima Celia Guimaries Vieira;Emilio Vilanova Torre;Jason Vleminckx;Lee White;Simon Willcock;Mathew Williams;John T. Woods;Tze Leong Yao;Ishak Yassir;Roderick Zagt;Lise Zemagho
  • 通讯作者:
    Lise Zemagho
Tree ring isotopes reveal an intensification of the hydrological cycle in the Amazon
树木年轮同位素揭示了亚马逊地区水文循环的加剧
  • DOI:
    10.1038/s43247-025-02408-9
  • 发表时间:
    2025-06-17
  • 期刊:
  • 影响因子:
    8.900
  • 作者:
    Bruno B. L. Cintra;Emanuel Gloor;Jessica C. A. Baker;Arnoud Boom;Jochen Schöngart;Santiago Clerici;Kanhu Pattnayak;Roel J. W. Brienen
  • 通讯作者:
    Roel J. W. Brienen
The fate of Amazonia
亚马逊地区的命运
  • DOI:
    10.1038/s41558-019-0465-1
  • 发表时间:
    2019-04-22
  • 期刊:
  • 影响因子:
    27.100
  • 作者:
    Emanuel Gloor
  • 通讯作者:
    Emanuel Gloor
Hydraulic traits predict stem growth across emHevea brasiliensis/em clones in a Malaysian climatically marginal area
在马来西亚气候边缘地区,水力特性预测巴西橡胶树无性系茎的生长
  • DOI:
    10.1016/j.foreco.2021.119864
  • 发表时间:
    2022-01-15
  • 期刊:
  • 影响因子:
    3.700
  • 作者:
    Mohd Hafiz Mohd Hazir;Emanuel Gloor;David Galbraith
  • 通讯作者:
    David Galbraith

Emanuel Gloor的其他文献

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{{ truncateString('Emanuel Gloor', 18)}}的其他基金

Amazon-SOS: a Safe Operating Space for Amazonian Forests
Amazon-SOS:亚马逊森林的安全作业空间
  • 批准号:
    NE/X018903/1
  • 财政年份:
    2024
  • 资助金额:
    $ 84.69万
  • 项目类别:
    Research Grant
POLYGRAM: POLYisotopologues of GReenhouse gases: Analysis and Modelling
POLYGRAM:温室气体的多同位素体:分析和建模
  • 批准号:
    NE/V006924/1
  • 财政年份:
    2020
  • 资助金额:
    $ 84.69万
  • 项目类别:
    Research Grant
Towards and Indian observatory of tropical forest response to climate change
印度热带森林观测站对气候变化的反应
  • 批准号:
    NE/R005079/1
  • 财政年份:
    2018
  • 资助金额:
    $ 84.69万
  • 项目类别:
    Research Grant
The Global Methane Budget
全球甲烷预算
  • 批准号:
    NE/N015657/1
  • 财政年份:
    2016
  • 资助金额:
    $ 84.69万
  • 项目类别:
    Research Grant
Greenhouse gas UK and Global Emissions (GAUGE)
英国和全球温室气体排放量(GAUGE)
  • 批准号:
    NE/K002244/1
  • 财政年份:
    2013
  • 资助金额:
    $ 84.69万
  • 项目类别:
    Research Grant
Biodiversity and ecosystem functioning in degraded and recovering Amazonian and Atlantic forests
退化和恢复的亚马逊和大西洋森林的生物多样性和生态系统功能
  • 批准号:
    NE/K01644X/1
  • 财政年份:
    2013
  • 资助金额:
    $ 84.69万
  • 项目类别:
    Research Grant
Amazon Integrated Carbon Analysis / AMAZONICA
亚马逊综合碳分析/AMAZONICA
  • 批准号:
    NE/F005873/2
  • 财政年份:
    2013
  • 资助金额:
    $ 84.69万
  • 项目类别:
    Research Grant
UK/Brazil Research Network for an Amazonian Carbon Observatory
英国/巴西亚马逊碳观测站研究网络
  • 批准号:
    NE/J016233/1
  • 财政年份:
    2012
  • 资助金额:
    $ 84.69万
  • 项目类别:
    Research Grant
Amazon Integrated Carbon Analysis / AMAZONICA
亚马逊综合碳分析/AMAZONICA
  • 批准号:
    NE/F005806/1
  • 财政年份:
    2008
  • 资助金额:
    $ 84.69万
  • 项目类别:
    Research Grant

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Hydrogen isotopes in lignin: a new proxy for the Amazon hydrological cycle?
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  • 批准号:
    NE/X012921/1
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    2022
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  • 批准号:
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    Standard Grant
Detecting hydrological and carbon-cycle change in high-latitude environments with compound-specific isotope analyses
通过化合物特异性同位素分析检测高纬度环境中的水文和碳循环变化
  • 批准号:
    503532-2017
  • 财政年份:
    2021
  • 资助金额:
    $ 84.69万
  • 项目类别:
    Discovery Grants Program - Northern Research Supplement
Detecting hydrological and carbon-cycle change in high-latitude environments with compound-specific isotope analyses
通过化合物特异性同位素分析检测高纬度环境中的水文和碳循环变化
  • 批准号:
    RGPIN-2017-03902
  • 财政年份:
    2021
  • 资助金额:
    $ 84.69万
  • 项目类别:
    Discovery Grants Program - Individual
Detecting hydrological and carbon-cycle change in high-latitude environments with compound-specific isotope analyses
通过化合物特异性同位素分析检测高纬度环境中的水文和碳循环变化
  • 批准号:
    RGPIN-2017-03902
  • 财政年份:
    2020
  • 资助金额:
    $ 84.69万
  • 项目类别:
    Discovery Grants Program - Individual
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