Trialling a drought narrative resource as a multi-stakeholder decision-making tool in drought risk management

这一创新的跨学科项目旨在开发一种易于使用的、基于证据的资源，可用于干旱风险管理的决策。为了实现这一目标，我们将把干旱科学和情景建模(使用数学模型预测干旱的影响)的信息与利益攸关方的参与和叙事性故事讲述结合在一起。虽然以前的干旱影响研究往往侧重于使用数学模型，但这个项目非常不同。该项目将通过多方合作，将艺术、人文和社会科学的研究方法与水文、气象、农业和生态科学知识结合起来。将选择英格兰、威尔士和苏格兰的七个案例研究集水区(由共同水资源连接的地区)，以反映英国的水文、社会经济和文化差异。对干旱影响的研究将在不同的尺度上进行--从小地块实验到当地集水区尺度。公民科学和利益攸关方参与城市和农村地区的地块试验将被用作关于干旱风险及其缓解的对话的刺激因素。该项目将：(1)调查不同利益攸关方对何时发生干旱和需要采取行动的看法；(2)研究水位和温度如何影响对干旱的认识；(3)探讨干旱管理决策的影响；(4)考虑对人类和生态系统造成不利干旱影响的用水者的行为；(5)利用以往的干旱经验和社区知识，评估用水冲突、协同作用和取舍。通过讲故事的方式，科学家将与不同的干旱利益攸关方交流尖端科学，这些利益攸关方将反过来交流他们的知识。利益攸关方包括：建筑业；园丁和分配人；小型和大型企业；地方当局；应急规划者；娱乐用水用户；生物多样性管理人员；公共卫生专业人员--身心健康；以及当地社区/公众。利益攸关方会议将收集各种数据，包括：-不同的利益攸关方对干旱及其原因的看法--关于干旱发生的当地知识和缓解战略(例如，对节水的态度，对水供应减少的反应)--对如何与干旱共存并提高个人/社区抗旱能力的见解--洪水和干旱交替的影响--这些信息将在案例中的利益攸关方群体内部和之间分享--研究和使用社交媒体之外的东西。将对这些信息进行分析，并将其与干旱科学相结合，以开发一种创新的基于网络的决策工具。这些数据将反馈给旱灾建模和未来设想，以期探索各种政策选择。这将有助于确定现在和未来的水资源可获得性，重点是N-S和W-E气候梯度的过去、现在和未来的干旱时期。该项目将尽可能是“开放科学”--通过项目网站保持对研究问题、数据、结果、方法、叙述、出版物和其他产出的开放、实时的获取，并随着项目进展进行更新。项目产出将包括：纳入科学叙述资源的决策支持工具；7个案例研究流域的水文模型；一个共享项目资源的社会媒体网络平台；一个物种应对/管理选择数据库，以减轻不同规模的干旱/旱灾后恢复，以及应对不同规模干旱/缺水的管理准则。

This innovative interdisciplinary project aims to develop an easy-to-use, evidence-based resource which can be used in decision-making in drought risk management. To achieve this, we will bring together information from drought science and scenario-modelling (using mathematical models to forecast the impacts of drought) with stakeholder engagement and narrative storytelling. While previous drought impact studies have often focused on using mathematical modelling, this project is very different. The project will integrate arts, humanities and social science research methods, with hydrological, meteorological, agricultural and ecological science knowledge through multi-partner collaboration. Seven case study catchments (areas linked by a common water resource) in England, Wales and Scotland will be selected to reflect the hydrological, socio-economic and cultural contrasts in the UK. Study of drought impacts will take place at different scales - from small plot experiments to local catchment scale. Citizen science and stakeholder engagement with plot experiments in urban and rural areas will be used as stimuli for conversations about drought risk and its mitigation. The project will: (i) investigate different stakeholder perceptions of when drought occurs and action is needed; (ii) examine how water level and temperature affect drought perception; (iii) explore the impact of policy decisions on drought management; (iv) consider water users' behaviours which lead to adverse drought impacts on people and ecosystems and; (v) evaluate water-use conflicts, synergies and trade-offs, drawing on previous drought experiences and community knowledge.The project spans a range of sectors including water supply; health, business, agriculture/horticulture, built environment, extractive industries and ecosystem services, within 7 case-study catchments. Through a storytelling approach, scientists will exchange cutting edge science with different drought stakeholders, and these stakeholders will, in turn, exchange their knowledge. Stakeholders include those in: construction; gardeners and allotment holders; small and large businesses; local authorities; emergency planners; recreational water users; biodiversity managers; public health professionals - both physical and mental health; and local communities/public. The stakeholder meetings will capture various data including:- different stakeholder perceptions of drought and its causes- local knowledge around drought onset and strategies for mitigation (e.g. attitudes to water saving, responses to reduced water availability)- insights into how to live with drought and increase individual/community drought resilience- the impact of alternating floods and droughtsThe information will be shared within, and between, stakeholder groups in the case-studies and beyond using social media. This information will be analysed, and integrated with drought science to develop an innovative web-based decision-making utility. These data will feedback into the drought modelling and future scenario building with a view to exploring a variety of policy options. This will help ascertain present and future water resources availability, focusing on past, present and future drought periods across N-S and W-E climatic gradients. The project will be as far as possible be 'open science' - maintaining open, real-time access to research questions, data, results, methodologies, narratives, publications and other outputs via the project website, updated as the project progresses.Project outputs will include: the decision-making support utility incorporating science-narrative resources; hydrological models for the 7 case-study catchments; a social media web-platform to share project resources; a database of species responses/management options to mitigate drought/post-drought recovery at different scales, and management guidelines on coping with drought/water scarcity at different scales.