Securing Multidisciplinary UndeRstanding and Prediction of Hiatus and Surge events (SMURPHS)

目前气候正在发生变化，主要是由于人类活动排放的额外温室气体导致地球升温。由于未来气候变暖可能对社会造成损害，各国政府正在协调努力减少温室气体排放，以避免这些破坏性后果。然而，尽管大气中温室气体浓度持续上升，但自20世纪90年代以来，地球表面变暖速度有所下降。虽然很容易找到全球地表变暖放缓（或“中断”）的简单原因，但气候系统极其复杂，有许多因素可以解释地表温度记录的起伏，其中还包括变暖速率的增加（或“激增”）。我们提出的研究计划的目标是更全面地了解所有影响因素如何解释过去的间断和激增 (H/S) 事件，这最终将有助于改善对未来几十年和遥远的未来气候变化的预测。 H/S 事件的潜在原因包括： 由于大气、海洋和陆地之间复杂的相互作用而导致的自然（所谓的非受迫）气候变化；由于火山爆发或太阳亮度变化导致的自然气候变化；由于自然变化或人为因素，热量转移到深海的方式发生变化；由于人类活动造成的甲烷等气体排放的变化；温度观测分布的局限性，使得间歇期部分是观测不完善造成的。 H/S 事件可能是由多种因素组合引起的，而不是单一原因。这就是为什么需要一个具有广泛专业知识的大型团队来共同评估不同的流程。我们的项目“保障间断和海涌事件的多学科理解和预测 (SMURPHS)”汇集了来自 9 个英国研究所的研究人员组成的综合社区，并得到了包括英国气象局在内的 5 个项目合作伙伴的支持，他们都是大气、海洋和陆地表面方面的专家。SMURPHS 有 3 个广泛的目标，通过 6 个研究主题实现，这些主题利用理论、观测和详细的计算机建模。目标 1 是建立一个基本框架，用于根据大气和海洋之间的能量移动来解释 H/S 事件，并确定 H/S 事件之间的特征和相似性。目标 2 是考虑人为和自然因素，了解可能触发 H/S 事件并延长其持续时间的机制。目标 3 是评估 H/S 事件是否可以预测，以及未来几十年气候的近期预测需要哪些信息，这对于社会如何适应变化非常重要。为了实现这些目标，来自不同学科的科学家将研究每种可能性，并在整个团队中交流他们的发现。 SMURPHS 将对其结果进行广泛的综合。SMURPHS 将有许多受益者。除了全球科学界之外，在国家和国际层面提高对 H/S 事件的了解对于设计控制未来温室气体排放和有效适应气候变化的政策也很重要。政府间气候变化专门委员会（IPCC）的评估深刻影响了国际和国家层面的气候政策制定。参与 SMURPHS 的科学家为之前的 IPCC 报告做出了重大贡献，并且 SMURPHS 科学和科学家将为未来的此类评估做出重大贡献。

Climate is currently changing mostly because of additional greenhouse gases, emitted through human activity, which are heating up the planet. Since future warming of climate is likely to cause damage to societies, governments are coordinating efforts to reduce greenhouse gas emissions to avoid these damaging consequences. However, despite the continuing rises in atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations, the rate of warming of the Earth's surface has declined somewhat since the 1990s. While it is tempting to find a simple reason for this slowing (or "hiatus") in global surface warming, the climate system is extremely complex and there are many factors which can explain the lumps and bumps in the surface temperature record which also include increases (or "surges") in the rate of warming. The goal of our proposed programme of research is to understand much more fully how all the contributing factors can explain past hiatus and surge (H/S) events and this will ultimately help improve predictions of future climate change over the coming decades and far into the future.The potential causes of H/S events includes: natural (so-called unforced) climate variability, due to complex interplay between the atmosphere, oceans and land; natural climate change due to volcanic eruptions or changes in the brightness of the sun; changes in how heat is moved into the deep oceans due to natural variations or human-caused factors; changes in emissions of gases such as methane due to human activity; limitations in the distribution of temperature observations, such that the hiatus is partly an artefact of imperfect observations. Rather than one single cause it is likely that H/S events are caused by a combination of factors. This is why a large team with a broad range of expertise is required to evaluate the different processes together. Our project, Securing Multidisciplinary UndeRstanding and Prediction of Hiatus and Surge events (SMURPHS) has brought together a comprehensive community of researchers from 9 UK institutes supported by 5 project partners including the Met Office who are experts in the atmosphere, the oceans and the land surface.SMURPHS has 3 broad objectives, achieved through 6 research themes, which exploit theory, observations and detailed computer modelling. Objective 1 is to build a basic framework for interpreting H/S events in terms of energy moving between the atmosphere and ocean and to determine characteristics of and similarities between H/S events. Objective 2 is to understand mechanisms that could trigger H/S events and extend their length, considering both human and natural factors. Objective 3 is to assess whether H/S events can be predicted and what information is needed for near-term prediction of climate over coming decades which is important for how societies adapt to change. To meet these objectives scientists from a range of different disciplines will work on each of these possibilities and communicate their findings across the team. SMURPHS will produce a wide-ranging synthesis of its results.SMURPHS will have many beneficiaries. Beyond the global scientific community, improved understanding of H/S events is important at national and international levels for designing policies to control future greenhouse gas emissions and for effective adaptation to climate change. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) assessments have deeply influenced climate policy development at the international and national levels. Scientists involved in SMURPHS have contributed significantly to previous IPCC reports, and SMURPHS science and scientists would contribute significantly to future such assessments.