Comparing atmosphere-land surface feedbacks from models within the tropics (CALM)

比较热带地区模型的大气-陆地表面反馈 (CALM)

• 批准号: NE/J005088/1
• 负责人: Richard Allan
• 金额: $ 10.67万
• 依托单位: University of Reading
• 依托单位国家: 英国
• 项目类别: Research Grant
• 财政年份: 2011
• 资助国家: 英国
• 起止时间: 2011 至 无数据
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://gtr.ukri.org/projects?ref=NE%2FJ005088%2F1
• 关键词: Comparing; atmosphere; land; surface; feedbacks

Man-made transformations to the environment, and in particular the land surface, are having a large impact on the distribution (in both time and space) of rainfall, upon which all life is reliant. From global changes in the composition of the atmosphere, through the emission of greenhouse gases and aerosols, to more localised land use and land cover (LULC) changes due to an expanding population with an increasing ecological footprint, human activity has a considerable impact on the processes controlling rainfall. This is of particular importance for environmentally vulnerable regions such as many of those in the tropics. Here, widespread poverty, an extensive disease burden and pockets of political instability has resulted in a low resilience and limited adaptative capacity to climate related shocks and stresses. The CALM project has the overarching aims of: (i) furthering our understanding of how the interactions between tropical rainfall and the land surface are represented in the latest climate model simulations from the 5th Climate Modelling Intercomparison Project (CMIP5); and (ii) how these interactions relate to abrupt climate changes such as those which occurred over the Sahara thousands of years ago or, more recently, the prolonged Sahelian drought.As recent climate disasters (such as flooding in Pakistan, heat waves in India and droughts in China) demonstrate, society is particularly vulnerable to extremes related to tropical rainfall. The overall objective of this project is to better understand both present day and future tropical rainfall variability and associated controlling processes. In particular, recent work has suggested that the atmosphere-land surface feedback is going to be increasing important for any possible abrupt climate changes, thus this project will focus on model simulations of this process over a location where such changes have already taken place. The research addresses the interconnected themes of water cycle drivers, the water cycle-human interface, society and the changing water cycle, and interactions between water at the land surface and in the sub-surface. Land use (and related types of land cover) is rapidly changing, as an increasing population migrates to urban areas, large tracts of land are deforested, agriculture is intensified and increasing use is made of groundwater resources through irrigation. These changes influence the climate through the release of greenhouse gases and aerosols and by changing the flows of mass and energy from the surface to the atmosphere. Currently the climate influence of variations in concentrations of greenhouse gases and aerosols (induced by LULC change) is simulated for the past and projected into the future using bio-geochemical modelling, measurements of changes in atmospheric composition, or by building greenhouse gas emission scenarios driven by different future socio-economic changes. A recent project, CMIP5, has run a number of state-of-the-art climate models using various present-day and future emission scenarios of greenhouse gases, and therefore provides an unprecedented amount of simulated model data. This project aims to compare the data from all of these models, as well as observational, satellite-derived and blended observational-satellite data, to see how the interactions between rainfall and the land surface differs (or agrees) between the models and reality. By following a process-based methodology, which is already well established and widely used in other funded projects, the project will enable a better understanding of how present-day and future rainfall is associated with the surrounding environment.

对环境，特别是陆地表面的人为改变，正在对所有生命所依赖的降雨量的分布（在时间和空间上）产生巨大影响。从大气成分的全球变化，通过温室气体和气溶胶的排放，到由于人口增长和生态足迹增加而导致的更局部的土地利用和土地覆盖（LULC）变化，人类活动对控制降雨的过程产生了相当大的影响。这对于环境脆弱地区，例如许多热带地区，尤其重要。在这里，普遍的贫困、广泛的疾病负担和局部的政治不稳定导致了对气候相关冲击和压力的复原力低下和适应能力有限。CALM项目的总体目标是：（一）进一步了解第五次气候模拟相互比较项目（CMIP 5）的最新气候模式模拟如何反映热带降雨和陆地表面之间的相互作用;以及（ii）这些相互作用与气候突变的关系，例如数千年前发生在撒哈拉沙漠的气候突变，或者最近发生的气候突变，最近的气候灾害（如巴基斯坦的洪水、印度的热浪和中国的干旱）表明，社会特别容易受到与热带降雨有关的极端情况的影响。该项目的总体目标是更好地了解当今和未来的热带降雨变异性以及相关的控制过程。特别是，最近的工作表明，大气-陆地表面反馈对于任何可能的气候突变都将变得越来越重要，因此本项目将侧重于在已经发生这种变化的地点对这一过程进行模型模拟。该研究涉及水循环驱动因素，水循环-人类界面，社会和不断变化的水循环以及地表水和地下水之间的相互作用等相互关联的主题。随着越来越多的人口迁移到城市地区、大片土地被砍伐、农业集约化以及通过灌溉越来越多地使用地下水资源，土地利用（以及相关的土地覆盖类型）正在迅速变化。这些变化通过释放温室气体和气溶胶以及改变物质和能量从地表向大气的流动来影响气候。目前，温室气体和气溶胶浓度变化（由LULC变化引起）对气候的影响是通过生物地球化学建模、测量大气成分变化或建立由未来不同社会经济变化驱动的温室气体排放情景来模拟过去和预测未来的。最近的一个项目CMIP 5使用各种当前和未来温室气体排放情景运行了一些最先进的气候模型，因此提供了前所未有的模拟模型数据。该项目旨在比较来自所有这些模型的数据，以及观测、卫星衍生和混合观测卫星数据，以了解降雨和地表之间的相互作用在模型和现实之间有何不同（或一致）。该项目采用了一种已在其他受资助项目中确立并广泛使用的基于过程的方法，将使人们能够更好地了解当前和未来的降雨量与周围环境的关系。

项目成果

CHALLENGES IN QUANTIFYING CHANGES IN THE GLOBAL WATER CYCLE

• DOI: 10.1175/bams-d-13-00212.1
• 发表时间: 2015-07-01
• 期刊: BULLETIN OF THE AMERICAN METEOROLOGICAL SOCIETY
• 影响因子: 8
• 作者: Hegerl, Gabriele C.;Black, Emily;Zhang, Xuebin
• 通讯作者: Zhang, Xuebin

The 30 year TAMSAT African Rainfall Climatology And Time series (TARCAT) data set

• DOI: 10.1002/2014jd021927
• 发表时间: 2014-09-27
• 期刊: JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH-ATMOSPHERES
• 影响因子: 4.4
• 作者: Maidment, Ross I.;Grimes, David;Black, Emily
• 通讯作者: Black, Emily

Extension of the TAMSAT Satellite-Based Rainfall Monitoring over Africa and from 1983 to Present

• DOI: 10.1175/jamc-d-14-0016.1
• 发表时间: 2014-12
• 期刊: Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology
• 影响因子: 3
• 作者: E. Tarnavsky;David Grimes;Ross Maidment;E. Black;Richard;-P.;Allan;M. Stringer