Assessing the risk to the coastal and rural road network in Scotland due to the effects of storms and extreme rainfall events

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One of the key challenges for Scottish transport infrastructure is the identification and assessment of assets at greatest risk to damage from landslides, storms and flooding. This is particularly the case with the vulnerability of the rural and coastal road network. The Scottish Climate Change Adaptation Framework (Transport) states that the location and design of new infrastructure, must take account of an increased likelihood of risks from flooding and landslides. Many coastal areas already appear to be experiencing increased intensity of storms and extreme rainfall events and recent high profile events (e.g. inundation of A78, Skelmorlie, extensive damage to vital roads and causeways in the Western Isles, landsliding at Stonehaven and the repeated disruption along the A83 at the Rest and be Thankful, Argyll and Bute attest to the need for an accurate assessment of those areas at greatest risk and for the implementation of potential mitigation measures. Adaptation Scotland provides a wealth of existing science, data and advice on how to adapt in the face of increasing change, but there is a need to develop robust tools for using this to assess the corresponding risk and economic impact for effective whole-life asset management. The aim of the project is therefore to develop a robust risk management tool, easily utilized by asset managers to assess threats to rural road transport assets in Scotland that are likely to be at risk from the effects of extreme rainfall and storms and differing future climate change scenarios. This will be determined by the following objectives:- Adaptation of an existing framework for landslide hazard assessment through the incorporation of recently-developed datasets to allow application also to flooding/coastal geohazards;- Production of diagnostic criteria to assess the nature of the different hazards (these include susceptibility to the various hazards and the spatial relation to the asset or road), - Analysis of the risk posed to key areas of the network infrastructure (local and trunk roads) by means of an assessment of the elements at risk (road and road users) and their vulnerability within a multi-hazard environment;- Assessment of economic impact to inform climate change adaptation plans and decision making for stakeholders at various levels from transport authority to local authority. Two case studies will be examined: (i) A78 Shore Road area and (ii) North and South Uists and Benbecula with island-linked causeways providing vital access to the Western Isles. The stakeholder is Transport Scotland.Keywords. extreme events, adaptation, resilience, management tool.