The predictability and limits of evolution in response to increased temperature: insights from a natural 'experiment'

响应温度升高的进化的可预测性和局限性：来自自然“实验”的见解

• 批准号: NE/N016734/1
• 负责人: Kevin Parsons
• 金额: $ 113.38万
• 依托单位: University of Glasgow
• 依托单位国家: 英国
• 项目类别: Research Grant
• 财政年份: 2016
• 资助国家: 英国
• 起止时间: 2016 至 无数据
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://gtr.ukri.org/projects?ref=NE%2FN016734%2F1
• 关键词: predictability; limits; evolution; response; increased

The ability to predict evolutionary responses to environmental change is of central importance for future conservation efforts. Increases in temperature from anthropogenic climate change are arguably the most widespread and dramatic alteration of natural ecosystems, with its impact predicted to become more acute with time. These increases in temperature are likely to shift species distributions, or drive developmental and evolutionary changes in local populations. Therefore, knowing how currently extant populations can or have changed in response to warmer conditions would be extremely important. Here we propose to investigate how populations change with respect to their growth, physiology, and anatomy in response to long term exposure to increased temperature. We will also determine what genetic changes may have happened in addition to epigenetic changes (i.e. environmentally-induced structural alterations of the genome that affect its function but don't change the DNA sequence), and relate these to phenotypic variation. To address this we will use a series of unique study sites in Iceland where populations of threespine stickleback live both in geothermally heated ponds and in unheated (i.e. cool) ponds in close proximity. These pairs of adjacent populations (which occur in several places) have lived at these contrasting temperatures for thousands of generations and preliminary investigation shows evidence of evolutionary divergence between them. This broad-ranging project will use both comparative and experimental approaches to quantify how the phenotype, genome, and epigenome interact when the animal experiences rising temperatures. Lab experiments will use fish from these source populations to investigate 1) population level differences between ambient (cool) and 'warmed' populations at the genomic and epigenomic level, 2) the inheritance of phenotypic traits (including metabolic rate, morphology and locomotor performance) and epigenomic states in sticklebacks reared under reciprocal temperature regimes, 3) alterations of development under warm conditions that could limit evolution, and 4) the genetic and epigenetic basis for variation in phenotypic traits under different temperatures. This project will be holistic through its ability to allow plasticity and heritable epigenetic effects to be assessed together with genetic variation. It will reveal whether there are consistent (and hence predictable) evolutionary and epigenetic changes when populations are exposed to warmer temperatures, and will explore the role of plasticity in shaping adaptive responses. As a result, it will provide novel information on the extent to which populations can adapt to a warming world.

预测进化对环境变化的反应的能力对未来的保护工作至关重要。人为气候变化导致的气温升高可以说是自然生态系统最广泛和最显著的变化，其影响预计将随着时间的推移而变得更加严重。这些温度的升高可能会改变物种分布，或推动当地种群的发育和进化变化。因此，了解目前现存的种群如何能够或已经对温暖的条件作出反应是极其重要的。在这里，我们建议调查人口如何改变他们的生长，生理和解剖在长期暴露于温度升高。我们还将确定除了表观遗传变化之外可能发生的遗传变化（即环境诱导的基因组结构改变，影响其功能，但不改变DNA序列），并将这些与表型变异联系起来。为了解决这个问题，我们将使用一系列独特的研究地点在冰岛的threespine棘鱼的人口生活在地热加热的池塘和不加热（即凉爽）的池塘在附近。这些成对的相邻种群（分布在几个地方）已经在这些截然不同的温度下生活了数千代，初步调查显示它们之间存在进化分歧的证据。这个广泛的项目将使用比较和实验方法来量化当动物经历温度升高时表型，基因组和表观基因组如何相互作用。实验室实验将使用来自这些来源种群的鱼类来研究1）在基因组和表观基因组水平上环境（冷）和“温暖”种群之间的种群水平差异，2）表型性状的遗传（包括代谢率，形态和运动性能）和表观基因组状态下饲养的棘鱼倒数温度制度，3）在温暖条件下发育的改变可能限制进化; 4）不同温度下表型性状变异的遗传和表观遗传基础。该项目将通过其允许可塑性和可遗传的表观遗传效应与遗传变异一起评估的能力来实现整体性。它将揭示当种群暴露于更温暖的温度时，是否存在一致的（因此是可预测的）进化和表观遗传变化，并将探索可塑性在塑造适应性反应中的作用。因此，它将提供有关人口在多大程度上能够适应变暖的世界的新信息。

项目成果

A warmer environment can reduce sociability in an ectotherm.

• DOI: 10.1111/gcb.16451
• 发表时间: 2023-01
• 期刊: Global change biology
• 影响因子: 11.6

Experimental evidence for adaptive divergence in response to a warmed habitat reveals roles for morphology, allometry and parasite resistance

• DOI: 10.1002/ece3.10907
• 发表时间: 2024-02-01
• 期刊: ECOLOGY AND EVOLUTION
• 影响因子: 2.6
• 作者: Smith，Bethany A.;Costa，Ana P. B.;Parsons，Kevin J.
• 通讯作者: Parsons，Kevin J.

Multigenerational exposure to elevated temperatures leads to a reduction in standard metabolic rate in the wild.

多代人暴露在高温下会导致野外标准代谢率降低。

• DOI: 10.1111/1365-2435.13538
• 发表时间: 2020
• 期刊: Functional ecology
• 影响因子: 5.2
• 作者: Pilakouta N

Geothermal stickleback populations prefer cool water despite multigenerational exposure to a warm environment.

• DOI: 10.1002/ece3.9654
• 发表时间: 2023-01
• 期刊: Ecology and evolution
• 影响因子: 2.6

Testing the predictability of morphological evolution in contrasting thermal environments.

测试对比热环境中形态演化的可预测性。

• DOI: 10.1093/evolut/qpac018
• 发表时间: 2023
• 期刊: Evolution; international journal of organic evolution
• 作者: Pilakouta N