Determining Extreme Values for the Insurance Sector

一些工业部门需要了解卫星时代所经历的极端气候以上的知识。例子包括保险业，监管机构将很快要求足够的资本来覆盖200年一遇的事件；以及核工业，它被要求为10000年一遇的事件做好准备。确定这一点的常见方法是根据过去50年左右的观测数据进行外推，要么直接，要么通过使用灾难模型。这些估计往往不包括对自然气候变异性或气候变化引起的不确定性的量化。本项目旨在确定这些标准实践遗漏的风险。

Several industrial sectors require knowledge of climate extremes above and beyond those experienced during the satellite era. Examples include the insurance industry where regulators will soon require adequate capital to cover a 1 in 200 year event; and the nuclear industry which is required to prepare against a 1 in 10,000 year event. The common approach to determine these is to extrapolate from observations over the past 50 years or so, either directly or through the use of a catastrophe model. Often these estimates do not include a quantification of the uncertainties arising from either natural climate variability or climate change. This project aims to determine the risks that are missed by these standard practices.