Monitoring the impact of the 2015/16 El Nino on rural water insecurity in Ethiopia: learning lessons for climate resilience

埃塞俄比亚日益严重的干旱与2015-2016年持续的强厄尔尼诺现象有关，并导致该区域普遍存在粮食和水的不安全，特别是对生活在偏远农村地区的大量人口而言。虽然国家和国际社会对粮食不安全问题作出了很好的反应，但当地泉水和水井--这些地区的主要水源--的失效让许多人措手不及，越来越多的证据表明，移民是由缺水推动的。在东非1997/98年末上一次厄尔尼诺大旱灾期间及其以来的研究表明，获得可靠的地下水资源是改善生计复原力的一个主要因素，特别是穷人。埃塞俄比亚目前与厄尔尼诺有关的旱灾提供了一个重要的研究机会：(1)收集关于浅层地下水水源(山泉、谷泉、井、井)在压力下行为的可靠证据；(2)监测与恢复有关的时间、规模和污染问题；(3)评估家庭团体和社区在供水点发生故障时制定的应对策略。自上次重大厄尔尼诺事件以来开发的方法使这成为可能，例如：用于连续测量地下水位的坚固而廉价的传感器，用于指示病原体污染的新的快速方法，以及一套新的地下水停留时间指标。有了这一新证据，就有可能通过以下方式确保脆弱社区对未来干旱的复原力增强：确定有复原力的供水点设计；有针对性地对地区进行测绘工作以确定脆弱地区，并为早期预警系统的设计作出贡献。这项研究汇集了来自BGS、ODI和AAU的一个经验丰富的团队，他们目前都在埃塞俄比亚工作，并得到了雷丁大学气象部门的合作伙伴和埃塞俄比亚的各种实施伙伴的支持。

The developing drought in Ethiopia is linked to the ongoing strong 2015-2016 El Niño event and is leading to widespread food and water insecurity in the region, particularly for the large numbers of people living in remote rural areas. Whilst there is a well-developed national and international response to food insecurity, the failure of local springs and wells, the primary source of water in these areas, has caught many off guard, with growing evidence that migration is driven by water shortage. Research in east Africa during and since the last major El Niño drought in the late 1997/98, indicates that access to reliable groundwater sources is a major contributory factor to improving livelihood resilience, particularly of the poorest.This current El Niño-related drought in Ethiopia, provides an important research opportunity to: (i) gather robust evidence of the behaviour under stress of shallow groundwater sources (mountain springs, valley springs, wells, boreholes); (ii) monitor the timing, magnitude and contamination issues associated with recovery; and (iii) assess the coping strategies developed by family groups and communities as water points fail. Methods developed since the last major El Niño event make this possible, for example: robust inexpensive sensors for continuously measuring groundwater levels, novel rapid methods for indicating pathogen contamination and a new suite of groundwater residence time indicators. With this new evidence it will be possible to ensure vulnerable communities become more resilient to future droughts by: identifying resilient designs of water point; targeting mapping efforts to areas to identify vulnerable areas, and contributing to the design of early warning systems. The research brings together an experienced team from BGS, ODI, and AAU, all of whom are currently working in Ethiopia, supported by partners in the meteorological department at the University of Reading and various implementation partners in Ethiopia.