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The potential of seasonal-to-decadal-scale inter-regional linkages to advance climate predictions (InterDec)

季节到十年尺度的区域间联系推进气候预测的潜力 (InterDec)

基本信息

批准号：
NE/P006787/1
负责人：
Steven Woolnough
金额：
$ 36.34万
依托单位：
University of Reading
依托单位国家：
英国
项目类别：
Research Grant
财政年份：
2016
资助国家：
英国
起止时间：
2016 至无数据
项目状态：
已结题

来源：
https://gtr.ukri.org/projects?ref=NE%2FP006787%2F1
关键词：
potential seasonal decadal scale inter

项目摘要

Globally averaged surface air temperature (SAT) during the 20th and 21st centuries displays a gradual warming and superimposed year-to-year and decadal-scale fluctuations. The upward trend contains the climate response to an anthropogenic increase of heat-trapping atmospheric greenhouse gases. The temperature ups and downs around the trend - that are particularly pronounced in the Arctic - mostly reflect natural variability. Natural climate variations are of two types, internal and external. The former is produced by the climate system itself, e.g. due to variations in ocean circulation. An example of the latter is solar-induced climate variability. Decadal-scale variability is of large societal relevance. It is observed, for example, in Atlantic hurricane activity, Sahel rainfall, Indian and East Asian Monsoons, Eurasian winter coldness and in the Arctic SAT and sea ice. The understanding and skillful prediction of decadal-scale climate variability that modulates the regional occurrence of extreme weather events will be of enormous societal and economic benefit.InterDec is an international initiative aiming at understanding the origin of decadal-scale climate variability in different regions of the world and the linkages between them by using observational data sets and through coordinated multi-model experiments. How can a decadal-scale climate anomaly in one region influence very distant areas of the planet? This can happen through atmospheric or oceanic teleconnections. Fast signal communication between different latitudinal belts within days or weeks is possible through atmospheric teleconnection, whereas communication through oceanic pathways is much slower requiring years to decades or even longer. Understanding these processes will enhance decadal climate prediction of both mean climate variations and associated trends in regional extreme events. Scientists from different European countries, from China and Japan will closely collaborate to disentangle the secrets of the inter-relations of decadal-scale variability around the globe.

20世纪和21世纪的全球平均地表气温（SAT）显示出逐渐变暖和叠加的年际和年代尺度波动。上升趋势包含了气候对人为增加的大气温室气体的反应。气温的起伏变化在北极地区尤为明显，这主要反映了自然变化。自然气候变化有两种类型，内部和外部。前者是由气候系统本身产生的，例如由于海洋环流的变化。后者的一个例子是太阳引起的气候变化。十年尺度的变异具有很大的社会意义。例如，在大西洋飓风活动、萨赫勒降雨、印度和东亚季风、欧亚冬季寒冷以及北极卫星和海冰中都可以观察到这种现象。了解和熟练地预测十年尺度气候变率将产生巨大的社会和经济效益，这种变率调节区域极端天气事件的发生，InterDec是一项国际倡议，旨在通过使用观测数据集和协调的多模式实验，了解世界不同区域十年尺度气候变率的起源及其之间的联系。一个地区十年尺度的气候异常如何影响地球上非常遥远的地区？这可以通过大气或海洋遥相关来实现。通过大气遥相关，可以在几天或几周内实现不同纬度带之间的快速信号通信，而通过海洋路径的通信要慢得多，需要几年到几十年甚至更长时间。了解这些过程将加强对平均气候变化和区域极端事件相关趋势的十年气候预测。来自不同欧洲国家、中国和日本的科学家将密切合作，解开地球仪周围十年尺度变化相互关系的秘密。

项目成果

期刊论文数量（5）

专著数量（0）

科研奖励数量（0）

会议论文数量（0）

专利数量（0）

Winter pressures on the UK health system dominated by the Greenland Blocking weather regime

格陵兰阻塞天气给英国卫生系统带来冬季压力

DOI：
10.1016/j.wace.2019.100218
发表时间：
2019
期刊：
Weather and Climate Extremes
影响因子：
8
作者：
Charlton-Perez A
通讯作者：
Charlton-Perez A

The influence of weather regimes on European renewable energy production and demand

DOI：
10.1088/1748-9326/ab38d3
发表时间：
2019-09
期刊：
Environmental Research Letters
影响因子：
6.7
作者：
Karin van der Wiel;H. Bloomfield;R. Lee;L. Stoop;R. Blackport;J. Screen;F. Selten
通讯作者：
Karin van der Wiel;H. Bloomfield;R. Lee;L. Stoop;R. Blackport;J. Screen;F. Selten

The links between the Madden-Julian Oscillation and European weather regimes

马登-朱利安振荡与欧洲天气状况之间的联系