PAlaeo-Constraints on Monsoon Evolution and Dynamics

PAlaeo-季风演化和动力学的约束

基本信息

  • 批准号:
    NE/P006752/1
  • 负责人:
  • 金额:
    $ 51.65万
  • 依托单位:
  • 依托单位国家:
    英国
  • 项目类别:
    Research Grant
  • 财政年份:
    2016
  • 资助国家:
    英国
  • 起止时间:
    2016 至 无数据
  • 项目状态:
    已结题

项目摘要

Monsoon systems influence the water supply and livelihoods of over half of the world. Observations are too short to provide estimates of monsoon variability on the multi-year timescale relevant to the future or to identify the causes of change on this timescale. The credibility of future projections of monsoon behavior is limited by the large spread in the simulated magnitude of precipitation changes. Past climates provide an opportunity to overcome these problems. This project will use annually-resolved palaeoenvironmental records of climate variability over the past 6000 years from corals, molluscs, speleothems and tree rings, together with global climate-model simulations and high-resolution simulations of the Indian, African, East Asia and South American monsoons, to provide a better understanding of monsoon dynamics and interannual to multidecadal variability (IM). We will use the millennium before the pre-industrial era (850-1850 CE) as the reference climate and compare this with simulations of the mid- Holocene (MH, 6000 years ago) and transient simulations from 6000 year ago to ca 850 CE. We will provide a quantitative and comprehensive assessment of what aspects of monsoon variability are adequately represented by current models, using environmental modelling to simulate the observations. By linking modelling of past climates and future projections, we will assess the credibility of these projections and the likelihood of extreme events at decadal time scales. The project is organized around four themes: (1) the impact of external forcing and extratropical climates on intertropical convergence and the hydrological cycle in the tropics; (2) characterization of IM variability to determine the extent to which the stochastic component is modulated by external forcing or changes in mean climate; (3) the influence of local (vegetation, dust) and remote factors on the duration, intensity and pattern of the Indian, African and South American monsoons; and (4) the identification of palaeo-constraints that can be used to assess the reliability of future monsoon evolution.
季风系统影响着世界一半以上地区的供水和生计。观测时间太短,无法在与未来相关的多年时间尺度上提供季风变率的估计,也无法确定这一时间尺度变化的原因。未来季风行为预估的可信度受到降水变化模拟幅度的广泛影响。过去的气候为克服这些问题提供了机会。该项目将利用过去6000年来珊瑚、软体动物、洞穴动物和树木年轮的年度分辨率古环境气候变化记录,以及全球气候模式模拟和印度、非洲、东亚和南美季风的高分辨率模拟,更好地了解季风动态和年际到多年代际变化(IM)。我们将使用前工业时代(850-1850 CE)之前的千年作为参考气候,并将其与全新世中期(MH, 6000年前)的模拟和6000年前至850 CE左右的瞬态模拟进行比较。我们将利用环境模拟模拟观测结果,对当前模式充分代表季风变化的哪些方面提供定量和全面的评估。通过将过去气候模型与未来预测联系起来,我们将评估这些预测的可信度以及在十年时间尺度上发生极端事件的可能性。该项目围绕四个主题进行组织:(1)外部强迫和温带气候对热带热带辐合和水文循环的影响;(2)表征IM变率,以确定随机分量受外部强迫或平均气候变化调制的程度;(3)局地因子(植被、沙尘)和局地因子对印度、非洲和南美季风的持续时间、强度和模式的影响;(4)确定可用于评估未来季风演化可靠性的古约束条件。

项目成果

期刊论文数量(10)
专著数量(0)
科研奖励数量(0)
会议论文数量(0)
专利数量(0)
Temporal and spatial considerations in data-model comparisons involving transient paleoclimatic simulations
涉及瞬态古气候模拟的数据模型比较中的时间和空间考虑
  • DOI:
    10.5194/egusphere-egu21-6799
  • 发表时间:
    2021
  • 期刊:
  • 影响因子:
    0
  • 作者:
    Bartlein P
  • 通讯作者:
    Bartlein P
Bringing added value to speleothem research
为洞穴研究带来附加值
  • DOI:
  • 发表时间:
    2019
  • 期刊:
  • 影响因子:
    2.3
  • 作者:
    Comas-Bru, L.
  • 通讯作者:
    Comas-Bru, L.
Inter-annual variability in the tropical Atlantic from the Last Glacial Maximum into future climate projections simulated by CMIP5/PMIP3
  • DOI:
    10.5194/cp-14-1377-2018
  • 发表时间:
    2018-10-01
  • 期刊:
  • 影响因子:
    4.3
  • 作者:
    Brierley, Chris;Wainer, Ilana
  • 通讯作者:
    Wainer, Ilana
High-resolution marine data and transient simulations support orbital forcing of ENSO amplitude since the mid-Holocene
  • DOI:
    10.1016/j.quascirev.2021.107125
  • 发表时间:
    2021-08-20
  • 期刊:
  • 影响因子:
    4
  • 作者:
    Carre, Matthieu;Braconnot, Pascale;Harrison, Sandy P.
  • 通讯作者:
    Harrison, Sandy P.
Underlying causes of Eurasian midcontinental aridity in simulations of mid-Holocene climate.
  • DOI:
    10.1002/2017gl074476
  • 发表时间:
    2017-09-16
  • 期刊:
  • 影响因子:
    5.2
  • 作者:
    Bartlein PJ;Harrison SP;Izumi K
  • 通讯作者:
    Izumi K
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Sandy Harrison其他文献

Sandy Harrison的其他文献

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{{ truncateString('Sandy Harrison', 18)}}的其他基金

FIRE-ADAPT: The Role of Integrated Fire Management on Climate Change Adaptation for Ecosystem Services in Tropical and Subtropical Regions
FIRE-ADAPT:综合火灾管理对热带和亚热带地区生态系统服务气候变化适应的作用
  • 批准号:
    EP/X039110/1
  • 财政年份:
    2023
  • 资助金额:
    $ 51.65万
  • 项目类别:
    Research Grant
Analysis of long-term ClimAte Change In Australia (ACACIA)
澳大利亚长期气候变化分析 (ACACIA)
  • 批准号:
    NE/E006183/1
  • 财政年份:
    2007
  • 资助金额:
    $ 51.65万
  • 项目类别:
    Research Grant
PalaeoQUMP:using palaeodata to reduce uncertainties in climate prediction
PalaeoQUMP:利用古数据减少气候预测的不确定性
  • 批准号:
    NE/D001587/1
  • 财政年份:
    2006
  • 资助金额:
    $ 51.65万
  • 项目类别:
    Research Grant
PalaeoQUMP:using palaeodata to reduce uncertainties in climate prediction
PalaeoQUMP:利用古数据减少气候预测的不确定性
  • 批准号:
    NE/D001544/1
  • 财政年份:
    2006
  • 资助金额:
    $ 51.65万
  • 项目类别:
    Research Grant
PalaeoQUMP:using palaeodata to reduce uncertainties in climate prediction
PalaeoQUMP:利用古数据减少气候预测的不确定性
  • 批准号:
    NE/D001536/1
  • 财政年份:
    2006
  • 资助金额:
    $ 51.65万
  • 项目类别:
    Research Grant

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