DRIER-China: Drought Resilience In Ecosystem services and Rural communities in China.

干旱是发展中国家，特别是亚洲和非洲国家的主要灾害，在许多国家，随着对水的需求上升和气候变化，干旱正成为一个日益严峻的挑战。在中国，大面积的干旱经常发生。这些干旱对农村（和城市）社区的供水、作物生长和当地生态系统都产生了影响。干旱对生态系统的影响可以间接地进一步影响农村社区，例如通过增加土壤侵蚀或沙尘暴。干旱的发生可以用多种方式来定义（例如，缺乏降雨、对河流流量的影响、作物歉收或社区缺乏供水）。这些不同形式的干旱及其对中国农村社区的影响之间的关系尚不完全清楚。此外，如果要有效地解决干旱问题，减少对经济、社会和环境的影响，迫切需要改进预测干旱、评估风险和了解对农村社区往往复杂的影响，以及评估潜在解决办法的风险和效益的方法。该项目旨在通过建立一个由来自不同学科（包括人文科学和社会科学）的研究人员和最终用户组成的国际网络，确定关键的研究差距，并为一个大型综合研究项目制定研究计划，以建立中国农村社区对干旱事件的抵御能力，从而应对这些挑战。最初的研究将检查过去30年的干旱模式，方法是汇集天气数据、水文模型、卫星数据中植被压力的迹象、对社区的影响及其过去对灾害的反应的百年记录，以确定干旱对作物、生态系统、社区和经济的影响之间的关系。此外，通过与当地人民和利益相关者的接触，将制定一个框架，以了解干旱对当地社区的影响，并评估和沟通潜在解决方案的风险和利益（包括经济、文化和道德风险和利益）。最后，将在中国举办一个由关键的政府、行业和非政府组织（如联合国驻华开发计划署）参与的利益相关者研讨会，以确保开发的工具和研究计划满足最终用户的需求，并制定确保吸收研究成果的路线。该项目涉及多个重要的中国合作伙伴，包括国家农业信息化工程研究中心（NERCITA）和中国国家减灾中心（NDRCC）。国家发改委是为中国政府提供灾害响应支持的重要组织，该项目开发的工具和方法将被整合到他们现有的风险评估和影响评估服务中，以改进基于证据的干旱事件响应。在NERCITA的帮助下，将开发预测干旱对作物生产影响和监测持续干旱事件对农业影响的新方法，项目合作伙伴将与中国的农业服务提供商密切合作，确保这些工具使中国农民和农业产业受益。该项目还将与当地社区合作，提高他们对干旱危害和潜在解决方案的认识，以及对干旱对其所在地区的历史影响的认识。从长远来看，该项目预计将导致一个大规模的国际研究项目，以开发一个全面、综合的风险和影响评估系统，用于灾害管理，并制定以需求为导向的公平解决方案，在中国和其他发展中国家的农村社区建立抗旱能力。

Drought is a major hazard in developing countries, especially in Asia and Africa, and in many countries is becoming a growing challenge as demand for water rises and the climate changes. In China, major droughts regularly occur over large areas of the country. These droughts have impacts on water supplies to rural (and urban) communities, on crop growth and on local ecosystems. Ecosystem impacts of drought can then indirectly further influence rural communities, for example through increases in soil erosion or dust storms. The onset of drought can be defined in a number of ways (e.g. by lack of rainfall, impact on river flows, crop failure or lack of water supply for communities). The relationships between these different forms of drought and their impacts on rural communities in China are not fully understood. In addition, improved methods to forecast drought, assess risks and understand often complex impacts on rural communities, as well as assess the risks and benefits of potential solutions, are urgently needed if drought issues are to be tackled effectively and economic, social and environmental impacts are to be reduced.This project aims to address these challenges, by building an international network of researchers and end-users from across a range of disciplines (including humanities and social sciences) to identify key research gaps and build a research plan for a large integrated research programme to build the resilience of rural communities in China to drought events. Initial research will examine patterns of drought over the past 30 years, by bringing together weather data, hydrological models, signs of vegetation stress from satellite data and century-long records of impacts on communities and their past responses to disasters, to determine the relationships between drought impacts on crops, ecosystems, communities and the economy. In addition, through engagement with local people and stakeholders, a framework for understanding drought impacts on local communities and for assessing and communicating the risks and benefits of potential solutions (including economic, cultural and ethical risks and benefits) will be developed. Finally, a stakeholder workshop, involving key governmental, industry and non-governmental organisations, such as the UN Development Programme for China, will be held in China, to ensure developed tools and research plans meet end-user needs and to develop routes to ensure uptake of research findings.The project involves a number of key Chinese partners, including the National Engineering Research Centre for Information Technology in Agriculture (NERCITA) and the National Disaster Reduction Centre of China (NDRCC). NDRCC is a key organisation providing support to government for disaster response in China and the tools and methods developed in the project will be integrated into their existing risk assessment and impact assessment services, to allow improved, evidence-based responses to drought events. With assistance from NERCITA, new methods of predicting drought impacts on crop production and monitoring the impacts of on-going drought events on agriculture will be developed and the project partners will work closely with agricultural service providers in China to ensure such tools benefit Chinese farmers and the agricultural industry. The project will also work with local communities, to enhance their understanding of drought hazards and potential solutions, and of the historical impacts of drought on their region. In the longer term, the project is expected to lead to a large-scale international research programme to develop a full, integrated risk and impact assessment system for use in disaster management and to develop needs-driven and equitable solutions to build drought resilience in rural communities in China and other developing countries.