Building Resilient Cities for Heat Waves

建设抵御热浪的城市

• 批准号: NE/P018637/2
• 负责人: Ting Sun
• 金额: $ 5.92万
• 依托单位: University College London
• 依托单位国家: 英国
• 项目类别: Fellowship
• 财政年份: 2022
• 资助国家: 英国
• 起止时间: 2022 至 无数据
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://gtr.ukri.org/projects?ref=NE%2FP018637%2F2
• 关键词: Building; Resilient; Cities; Heat; Waves

As projected by IPCC (with higher confidence compared to other weather extremes e.g., precipitation, cold, extremes), heat waves (HWs), excessively hot periods, are likely to occur more frequently, with higher intensities, and with longer duration, in the coming decades. Cities differ from their surroundings in terms of built forms, materials, and intensive anthropogenic activities. These differences result in the well-known urban heat island (UHI) effect, whereby cities are often warmer than their surroundings. HWs are exacerbated by the UHI effect and cause cities to be more vulnerable to HWs resulting in greater thermal stresses for urban residents. This is of particular concern for those residents susceptible to heat-related illness, given the intensified HW scenarios in the near future, and worldwide with more people living in urban environments. As such, building resilient cities for HWs warrants urgent attention. Resilience is "the capacity of a community or society to adapt when exposed to a hazard". In order to build resilient cities for HWs, the key is in understanding the responses of cities to HWs under varying scenarios: as climate changes, the climate extremes may also vary, which forces the urban systems through a "dose-response" function and subsequently leads to different biophysical impacts. The "dose-response" functions between climate and biophysical impacts in cities are essentially determined by the urban-atmospheric interactions, where the surface energy balance is one of the keys to greater understanding.In this Fellowship, I will employ both modelling and observational approaches to investigate the urban-atmospheric interactions as well as the urban surface energy balance under HWs. An adaptable tool, the analytical urban climate (ANUC) framework, will be developed for better understanding the urban-atmospheric interactions under heat waves. Compared with other popular numerically-based urban climate models, the ANUC framework features analytical rather than numerical expressions of various climate variables, which relieves the framework from expensive computational burdens and facilitates the exploration of as many HW scenarios as possible. The observations will emphasise the urban-rural contrasts in surface energy balance by constructing urban-rural flux observation pairs worldwide, the results of which are expected to allow generalisation of the urban-rural characteristics of the surface energy balance under different climates. Based upon the ANUC framework and the global urban-rural SEB characteristics, I will justify the effectiveness of different engineering approaches for mitigating thermal stress under HWs of the present-day and future climates by conducting many ANUC simulations.This Fellowship will shape a better understanding of the dynamics between cities and the atmosphere under HWs and will assess the effectiveness of mitigation strategies of cities under present-day and future climates, which will help building up HW resilient cities of the future.

正如IPCC预测的那样（与其他极端天气相比，降水、寒冷、极端天气）、热浪（HWs）、酷热期等可能会在未来几十年内发生得更频繁、强度更高、持续时间更长。城市在建筑形式、材料和密集的人类活动方面与周围环境不同。这些差异导致了众所周知的城市热岛效应（UHI），即城市通常比周围环境更温暖。HWs因UHI效应而加剧，并导致城市更容易受到HWs的影响，从而为城市居民带来更大的热压力。这对于那些容易患热相关疾病的居民来说尤其令人担忧，因为在不久的将来，越来越多的人生活在城市环境中。因此，为HWs建设具有抗灾能力的城市值得迫切关注。复原力是“一个社区或社会在面临危害时的适应能力”。为了建设对有害废物具有复原力的城市，关键是要了解城市在不同情景下对有害废物的反应：随着气候变化，极端气候也可能发生变化，这迫使城市系统通过“剂量-反应”函数，随后导致不同的生物物理影响。城市气候和生物物理影响之间的“剂量-响应”函数基本上是由城市-大气相互作用决定的，其中地表能量平衡是加深理解的关键之一。在本奖学金中，我将采用模拟和观测方法来研究城市-大气相互作用以及HWs下的城市地表能量平衡。将开发一个适应性强的工具，即城市气候分析框架，以更好地了解热浪下的城市-大气相互作用。与其他流行的基于数值的城市气候模式相比，ANUC框架具有各种气候变量的分析而不是数值表达式，这减轻了框架昂贵的计算负担，并有助于探索尽可能多的HW情景。观测将通过在全球范围内建立城乡通量观测对，强调城乡地表能量平衡的对比，其结果预计将使不同气候下地表能量平衡的城乡特征得到概括。基于ANUC框架和全球城乡SEB特征，我将通过进行许多ANUC模拟来证明不同工程方法在当前和未来气候下缓解HWs下热应力的有效性。该奖学金将更好地了解HWs下城市和大气之间的动态，并将评估当前和未来气候下城市缓解策略的有效性。这将有助于建立未来的HW弹性城市。

项目成果

Enhancing process-based hydrological models with embedded neural networks: A hybrid approach

• DOI: 10.1016/j.jhydrol.2023.130107
• 发表时间: 2023-09-06
• 期刊: JOURNAL OF HYDROLOGY
• 影响因子: 6.4
• 作者: Li，Bu;Sun，Ting;Ni，Guangheng
• 通讯作者: Ni，Guangheng

Impact of climate change on hospital admissions: a case study of the Royal Berkshire Hospital in the UK

气候变化对入院率的影响：英国皇家伯克郡医院的案例研究

• DOI: 10.1002/met.2084
• 发表时间: 2022
• 期刊: Meteorological Applications
• 影响因子: 2.7
• 作者: Israelsson J

Urban climate modelling, anywhere, at any time

随时随地进行城市气候建模

• DOI: 10.5194/egusphere-egu23-1546
• 发表时间: 2023
• 作者: Demuzere M

Non-linear response of temperature-related mortality risk to global warming in England and Wales

英格兰和威尔士与温度相关的死亡风险对全球变暖的非线性响应

• DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/ac50d5
• 发表时间: 2022
• 期刊: Environmental Research Letters
• 影响因子: 6.7
• 作者: Huang W

Impact of 3-D urban landscape patterns on the outdoor thermal environment: A modelling study with SOLWEIG

3D 城市景观格局对室外热环境的影响：SOLWEIG 建模研究

• DOI: 10.1016/j.compenvurbsys.2022.101773
• 发表时间: 2022-06
• 期刊: Computers, Environment and Urban Systems
• 作者: Fanhua Kong;Jiayu Chen;Ariane Middel;Haiwei Yin;Manchun Li;Ting Sun;Ning Zhang;Jing Huang;Hongqing Liu;Kejing Zhou;Jinsong Ma
• 通讯作者: Jinsong Ma