Non-linear response of temperature-related mortality risk to global warming in England and Wales
Non-linear response of temperature-related mortality risk to global warming in England and Wales
复制标题
英格兰和威尔士与温度相关的死亡风险对全球变暖的非线性响应
DOI：
10.1088/1748-9326/ac50d5
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发表时间：
2022
影响因子：
6.7
通讯作者：
Huang W
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Huang W
气候变化预计将导致与季节性温度有关的死亡率的变化。然而，这种对健康风险的影响并不一定与温度升高呈线性关系。通过研究风险相对于全球变暖程度的变化，我们发现，在英格兰和威尔士，夏季平均死亡率风险的增加是延迟出现的。由于在当前气候条件下夏季平均气温相对温和，以及风险-响应关系的非线性，预计在较低的变暖水平下，夏季平均风险的变化最小，预计相对于工业化前水平，全球变暖超过2.5 ℃，风险将上升。相比之下，在夏季极端高温期间，死亡风险增加42%，这已经是全球变暖2摄氏度的预期。另一方面，在英格兰和威尔士，冬季归因死亡率预计将随着全球变暖而线性下降。
Climate change is expected to lead to changes in seasonal temperature-related mortality. However, this impact on health risk does not necessarily scale linearly with increasing temperature. By examining changes in risk relative to degrees of global warming, we show that there is a delayed emergence of the increase in summer mean mortality risk in England and Wales. Due to the relatively mild summer mean temperatures under the current climate and the non-linearity of the exposure–response relationships, minimal changes in summer mean risk are expected at lower levels of warming and an escalation in risk is projected beyond 2.5 C of global warming relative to pre-industrial levels. In contrast, a 42% increase in mortality risk during summer heat extremes is already expected by 2 C global warming. Winter attributable mortalities, on the other hand, are projected to decrease largely linearly with global warming in England and Wales.
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影响因子：
30.7
作者：
Vicedo-Cabrera AM;Scovronick N;Sera F;Royé D;Schneider R;Tobias A;Astrom C;Guo Y;Honda Y;Hondula DM;Abrutzky R;Tong S;de Sousa Zanotti Stagliorio Coelho M;Saldiva PHN;Lavigne E;Correa PM;Ortega NV;Kan H;Osorio S;Kyselý J;Urban A;Orru H;Indermitte E;Jaakkola JJK;Ryti N;Pascal M;Schneider A;Katsouyanni K;Samoli E;Mayvaneh F;Entezari A;Goodman P;Zeka A;Michelozzi P;de'Donato F;Hashizume M;Alahmad B;Diaz MH;De La Cruz Valencia C;Overcenco A;Houthuijs D;Ameling C;Rao S;Ruscio FD;Carrasco-Escobar G;Seposo X;Silva S;Madureira J;Holobaca IH;Fratianni S;Acquaotta F;Kim H;Lee W;Iniguez C;Forsberg B;Ragettli MS;Guo YLL;Chen BY;Li S;Armstrong B;Aleman A;Zanobetti A;Schwartz J;Dang TN;Dung DV;Gillett N;Haines A;Mengel M;Huber V;Gasparrini A
通讯作者：
Gasparrini A
影响因子：
6.7
作者：
Huang, Wan Ting Katty;Charlton-Perez, Andrew;Sun, Ting
通讯作者：
Sun, Ting
影响因子：
5.2
作者：
Hajat, S.;Chalabi, Z.;Mays, N.
通讯作者：
Mays, N.
DOI：
10.1016/s2542-5196(17)30156-0
发表时间：
2017-12
期刊：
The Lancet. Planetary health
影响因子：
--
作者：
Gasparrini A;Guo Y;Sera F;Vicedo-Cabrera AM;Huber V;Tong S;de Sousa Zanotti Stagliorio Coelho M;Nascimento Saldiva PH;Lavigne E;Matus Correa P;Valdes Ortega N;Kan H;Osorio S;Kyselý J;Urban A;Jaakkola JJK;Ryti NRI;Pascal M;Goodman PG;Zeka A;Michelozzi P;Scortichini M;Hashizume M;Honda Y;Hurtado-Diaz M;Cesar Cruz J;Seposo X;Kim H;Tobias A;Iñiguez C;Forsberg B;Åström DO;Ragettli MS;Guo YL;Wu CF;Zanobetti A;Schwartz J;Bell ML;Dang TN;Van DD;Heaviside C;Vardoulakis S;Hajat S;Haines A;Armstrong B
通讯作者：
Armstrong B
影响因子：
3.2
作者：
LANGFORD, IH;BENTHAM, G
通讯作者：
BENTHAM, G