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Revealing the interactions between global biodiversity change and human food security

揭示全球生物多样性变化与人类粮食安全之间的相互作用

基本信息

批准号：
NE/R010811/1
负责人：
Tim Newbold
金额：
$ 77.17万
依托单位：
University College London
依托单位国家：
英国
项目类别：
Research Grant
财政年份：
2018
资助国家：
英国
起止时间：
2018 至无数据
项目状态：
已结题

来源：
https://gtr.ukri.org/projects?ref=NE%2FR010811%2F1
关键词：
Revealing interactions between global biodiversity

项目摘要

Sustainable development, aimed at ensuring human well-being while protecting the Earth's natural environment for future generations, is one of the greatest challenges of the 21st century. The United Nations recently agreed on a set of Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), which encompass both environmental and social targets, including halting biodiversity loss and ending hunger across the world. Importantly, these goals concern highly interlinked sectors: biodiversity and agriculture (largely for food production) interact within ecosystems, and regions of food consumption interact with areas of food production within the global food system. In this project, we will focus on evaluating and explaining the interactions between food production and biodiversity, and we will also quantify the role of trade linkages in shaping the impacts of food production on biodiversity globally.In order to effectively progress towards the SDGs, it is necessary to understand the interactions between biodiversity changes and human food security. These interactions can take a number of forms, most obviously that agricultural land use for food production is one of the greatest pressures on biodiversity. However, biodiversity changes may also impact food production. Indeed, certain groups of species provide important services that support agriculture, such as pollination, nutrient cycling, and control of insect pests. Ecosystems with a higher diversity of species within these groups have been shown to have higher levels of certain ecosystem services, such as pollination, and to have more stable agricultural production through time. In our previous research, we have used models of biodiversity to understand how human use of the land for agriculture impacts biodiversity across the world. We have also used these models to make predictions of how biodiversity might change in the future under different scenarios of how humans will use the land. However, these models have so far been relatively crude, which has prevented an understanding of the interactions between biodiversity and food security. In this project, we will advance biodiversity models in three important ways to explain the interactions between biodiversity change and food production. First, we will ask how the effects of agriculture on biodiversity vary in different environments (e.g. differing in climate or in the surrounding natural habitat). This will help us identify those environments where agriculture has a smaller impact on biodiversity. Second, we will assess how the characteristics of agricultural systems, such as productivity, fertilizer and pesticide use cause different impacts on biodiversity. This will allow us to identify agricultural practices with smaller effects on biodiversity. Third, we will explore how different groups of species are impacted by agriculture. This will allow us to identify instances where there is feedback from biodiversity change to food security, for example if key groups of species such as pollinators are lost more than other species. With our improved models, we will identify where around the world food production and biodiversity change are most strongly interacting. We will also investigate how global trade in agricultural products is linked to biodiversity change, to identify where food consumption has particularly strong biodiversity impacts, potentially in remote regions of the world. Finally, we will make future predictions to identify the pathways of development in human societies that are likely to lead to smaller or larger interactions with biodiversity. Together, the model improvements and applications will provide a much better understanding of the interactions between biodiversity change and food security at the global scale, which will be key to guide environmental, conservation and agricultural policies aimed at achieving the UN Sustainable Development Goals.

可持续发展是21世纪最大的挑战之一，旨在确保人类福祉，同时为子孙后代保护地球自然环境。联合国最近商定了一套可持续发展目标(SDGs)，其中包括环境和社会目标，包括阻止生物多样性丧失和消除世界各地的饥饿。重要的是，这些目标涉及高度相互关联的部门：生物多样性和农业(主要用于粮食生产)在生态系统内相互作用，粮食消费区域与全球粮食系统内的粮食生产地区相互作用。在这个项目中，我们将重点评估和解释粮食生产和生物多样性之间的相互作用，我们还将量化贸易联系在塑造粮食生产对全球生物多样性影响方面的作用。为了有效地实现可持续发展目标，有必要了解生物多样性变化与人类粮食安全之间的相互作用。这些相互作用可以采取多种形式，最明显的是，将农业土地用于粮食生产是对生物多样性的最大压力之一。然而，生物多样性的变化也可能影响粮食生产。事实上，某些物种群体提供了支持农业的重要服务，如授粉、营养循环和病虫害控制。这些种群中物种多样性较高的生态系统已被证明具有更高水平的某些生态系统服务，如授粉，并随着时间的推移具有更稳定的农业生产。在我们之前的研究中，我们使用生物多样性模型来了解人类将土地用于农业是如何影响世界各地的生物多样性的。我们还使用这些模型来预测，在人类将如何利用土地的不同情景下，生物多样性在未来可能会发生什么变化。然而，到目前为止，这些模型相对粗糙，这阻碍了人们对生物多样性和粮食安全之间的相互作用的理解。在这个项目中，我们将以三种重要的方式推进生物多样性模型，以解释生物多样性变化与粮食生产之间的相互作用。首先，我们将询问农业对生物多样性的影响在不同环境中(例如，气候或周围自然栖息地的不同)是如何变化的。这将帮助我们确定农业对生物多样性影响较小的环境。其次，我们将评估农业系统的特点，如生产力、化肥和农药的使用如何对生物多样性造成不同的影响。这将使我们能够确定对生物多样性影响较小的农业做法。第三，我们将探索农业对不同物种群体的影响。这将使我们能够识别生物多样性变化对粮食安全产生反馈的情况，例如，如果传粉者等关键物种群体的损失比其他物种更多。通过我们改进的模型，我们将确定世界各地粮食生产和生物多样性变化相互作用最强的地方。我们还将调查全球农产品贸易如何与生物多样性变化联系在一起，以确定粮食消费对生物多样性影响特别强烈的地方，可能是世界偏远地区。最后，我们将做出未来的预测，以确定人类社会中可能导致与生物多样性的或更小或更大相互作用的发展道路。总之，这些模型的改进和应用将更好地理解全球范围内生物多样性变化与粮食安全之间的相互作用，这将是指导旨在实现联合国可持续发展目标的环境、保护和农业政策的关键。

项目成果

期刊论文数量（10）

专著数量（0）

科研奖励数量（0）

会议论文数量（0）

专利数量（0）

Key tropical crops at risk from pollinator loss due to climate change and land use.

DOI：
10.1126/sciadv.adh0756
发表时间：
2023-10-13
期刊：
SCIENCE ADVANCES
影响因子：
13.6
作者：
Millard, Joseph;Outhwaite, Charlotte L.;Ceausu, Silvia;Carvalheiro, Luisa G.;Silva, Felipe Deodato da Silva e;Dicks, Lynn V.;Ollerton, Jeff;Newbold, Tim
通讯作者：
Newbold, Tim

Impacts of global food supply on biodiversity via land use and climate change

全球粮食供应通过土地利用和气候变化对生物多样性的影响

DOI：
10.1101/2023.05.03.539201
发表时间：
2023
期刊：
影响因子：
0
作者：
Boakes E
通讯作者：
Boakes E

What do changing weather and climate shocks and stresses mean for the UK food system?

不断变化的天气和气候冲击和压力对英国粮食系统意味着什么？

DOI：
10.1088/1748-9326/ac68f9
发表时间：
2022
期刊：
Environmental Research Letters
影响因子：
6.7
作者：
Falloon P
通讯作者：
Falloon P

A research perspective towards a more complete biodiversity footprint: a report from the World Biodiversity Forum

更完整的生物多样性足迹的研究视角：世界生物多样性论坛的报告

DOI：
10.1007/s11367-020-01846-1
发表时间：
2021
期刊：
The International Journal of Life Cycle Assessment
影响因子：
0
作者：
Marques A
通讯作者：
Marques A

Human impacts on planetary boundaries amplified by Earth system interactions

DOI：
10.1038/s41893-019-0454-4
发表时间：
2020-02-01
期刊：
NATURE SUSTAINABILITY
影响因子：
27.6
作者：
Lade, Steven J.;Steffen, Will;Rockstroem, Johan
通讯作者：
Rockstroem, Johan

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Tim Newbold其他文献

Do not downplay biodiversity loss

不要轻视生物多样性的丧失

DOI：
10.1038/s41586-021-04179-7
发表时间：
2022-01-26
期刊：
NATURE
影响因子：
48.500
作者：
Michel Loreau;Bradley J. Cardinale;Forest Isbell;Tim Newbold;Mary I. O’Connor;Claire de Mazancourt
通讯作者：
Claire de Mazancourt