Project LOMVIA: Linking Oceanography and Multi-specific, spatially-Variable Interactions of seabirds and their prey in the Arctic

北极是全球气候变暖速度最快的地区之一，对该地区的冰、大气和海洋产生了巨大影响。海冰的减少是气候变暖最显著的影响之一，预计在几十年内北冰洋将出现一个无冰的夏季。海冰边缘是一个高产的栖息地，它的消失对北极的食物网产生了深远的影响。海冰的消退也为北极的渔业、航运和石油勘探打开了大门，这可能进一步威胁到生物多样性。大西洋水向北的入侵导致温带浮游生物和鱼类将其活动范围扩展到北极水域，从而改变了食物网。作为北极国家的“近邻”，英国和德国对了解北冰洋的这些变化可能带来的风险和机遇特别感兴趣。因此，NERC启动了变化中的北冰洋项目，以更好地了解变暖对北极海洋食物网的影响。这为解决气候变化对北极生态系统的影响的四个优秀研究项目提供了资金，但仍然存在重大差距，包括表征鱼类和海鸟与更广泛的北极食物网的联系。海鸟在食物网的运作中发挥着重要作用，具有相当大的经济和文化价值，并在北极提供重要的生态系统服务。预计气候变化将对北极地区的海鸟栖息地产生重大影响。海冰边缘的生产力很高，是海鸟重要的觅食栖息地。它们从陆地上的繁殖地撤退，可能会导致它们转向其他栖息地，包括冰川融水羽流、锋面区或水深特征上的上升流，这些地方可能不利于觅食。南方物种向北极的活动范围扩大可能进一步影响捕食者、猎物和竞争相互作用，从而增加北极物种对变暖的敏感性。所有这些过程都可能改变北极的食物网和依赖它们的海鸟种群。事实上，由于海洋变暖，许多北极海鸟物种的数量正在下降。这个项目的重点是两个密切相关的海鸠物种：br<e:1>海鸠（北极物种）和普通海鸠（温带物种），它们占北大西洋海鸟生物量的一半以上。这项研究将在冰岛进行，冰岛代表着一个“微型北极”，因为来自极地、亚北极和温带水团的复杂洋流在海岸周围交汇，在一个相对较小的区域内产生了海洋学和海冰状况的巨大空间梯度。过去十年的变暖事件改变了鱼类分布，并对海鸟繁殖成功和种群趋势产生了不利影响。我们将研究两种海鸠在这些环境变化梯度上的栖息地利用和食物网联系的变化，以及它们之间的竞争，并量化种群大小对栖息地可用性的响应。为了实现这一目标，我们组建了一个国际团队，他们在野生动物遥测、稳定同位素分析和生态建模的最新技术方面处于世界领先地位。我们的项目将提高我们对北极海鸟栖息地利用、海洋分布和饮食的理解，这将有助于为基于证据的保护战略提供信息，包括海洋空间规划和生态敏感型渔业管理。我们制定了一份广泛而详细的影响计划，以确保项目成果能够达到政策和管理上的目标，并让更广泛的公众了解。

The rate of climate warming in the Arctic is among the most rapid on the planet, with dramatic effects upon ice, atmosphere and oceans of the region. Loss of sea ice is one of the most striking effects of warming, and an ice-free summer Arctic Ocean is predicted within a few decades. Sea ice margins are a highly productive habitat and its loss has profound influences on Arctic food-webs. The retreat of sea ice also opens the Arctic up to fisheries, shipping and oil exploration which may further threaten biodiversity. Intrusion of Atlantic water northwards has resulted in temperate plankton and fish species extending their range into Arctic waters which has altered food-webs. As the "nearest neighbours" of the Arctic states, the UK and Germany have a particular interest in understanding the risks and opportunities that these changes in the Arctic Ocean may present. Accordingly, NERC launched the Changing Arctic Ocean programme to better understand impacts of warming upon Arctic marine food-webs. This resulted in funding of four excellent research projects that address the effects of climate change upon Arctic ecosystems, but significant gaps remain, including that of characterising the linkages of fish and seabirds to the wider Arctic food-web. Seabirds play a significant role in the functioning of food-webs, have considerable economic and cultural value and deliver important ecosystem services in the Arctic. Climate change is expected to have significant impacts on seabird habitats in the Arctic. The sea ice margin is highly productive and forms an important foraging habitat for seabirds. Its retreat away from their land-based breeding colonies can cause switching to other habitats, including meltwater plumes from glaciers, frontal zones or upwellings over bathymetric features which may be less productive for foraging. The range expansion of southerly species into the Arctic may further affect predator, prey and competitive interactions, thus increasing Arctic species' sensitivity to warming. All these processes are likely to alter Arctic food-webs and populations of seabirds that depend upon them. Indeed, many Arctic seabird species populations are in decline in response to ocean warming. This project focuses on two closely related guillemot species: Brünnich's (an Arctic species) and common (a temperate one) which comprise over half of the seabird biomass in the north Atlantic. The study will be conducted in Iceland which represents an "Arctic in miniature" owing to complex current flows from Polar, sub-Arctic and temperate water masses meeting around the coast and creating dramatic spatial gradients in oceanography and sea ice conditions within a relatively small area. A warming event over the past decade has altered fish distributions and adversely affected seabird breeding success and population trends. We will examine variation in habitat use and food-webs links of, and competition among, the two species of guillemot across these gradients in environmental variability and quantify the response of colony size to habitat availability. To achieve this we have assembled an international team who are world-leaders in the latest techniques in wildlife telemetry, stable isotope analysis and ecological modelling. Our project will improve our understanding of Arctic seabird habitat use, marine distribution and diets which will help to inform evidence-based conservation strategies, including marine spatial planning and ecologically sensitive fisheries management. We have formulated a broad and detailed impact plan to ensure the projects findings achieve policy and management outcomes, as well as reaching a wider public audience.