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Improving the Role of Information Systems in Anticipatory Disaster Risk Reduction (IRIS)

提高信息系统在减少预期灾害风险 (IRIS) 中的作用

基本信息

批准号：
NE/R01423X/1
负责人：
Leonard Smith
金额：
$ 32.93万
依托单位：
London School of Economics and Political Science
依托单位国家：
英国
项目类别：
Research Grant
财政年份：
2018
资助国家：
英国
起止时间：
2018 至无数据
项目状态：
已结题

来源：
https://gtr.ukri.org/projects?ref=NE%2FR01423X%2F1
关键词：
Improving Role Information Systems Anticipatory

项目摘要

Humanitarian agencies are able to use weather (and other) forecasts to act in anticipation of humanitarian crises. For example, when a heatwave or hurricane is forecast, supplies can be moved into position early and emergency supplies positioned or pre-distributed. This reduces the overall impact and the cost of responding to the disaster. However, financing in advance of a disaster requires a high level of confidence in the forecast, to avoid the possibility of misallocated or wasted resources. Many forecasts are currently available but not all are accompanied by an assessment of the forecast quality. For example, it may be that the forecast is over-confident, predicting an event more times than it is actually observed, or it could be under confident, failing to predict events which do then occur.We propose to develop and demonstrate a general method of measuring and displaying the information content of forecasts, using a novel idea which is based on existing research and freely available data. This will allow humanitarian agencies to act confidently in anticipation of humanitarian crises when there is sufficient information in the forecast, and to implement forecast-based financing schemes such as insurance or anticipatory funding allocation only when there is known to be confidence that the scheme will be effective.

人道主义机构能够利用天气(和其他)预报来预测人道主义危机的发生。例如，当预报到热浪或飓风时，物资可以提前到位，紧急物资可以定位或预先分发。这降低了应对灾难的总体影响和成本。然而，在灾难发生之前提供资金需要对预测有很高的信心，以避免资源分配不当或浪费的可能性。目前有许多预报，但并非所有预报都附有对预报质量的评估。例如，可能是预测过于自信，预测某个事件的次数比实际观察到的次数更多，或者可能是信心不足，未能预测随后发生的事件。我们建议开发和演示一种通用的方法来衡量和显示预测的信息内容，该方法基于现有的研究和免费获得的数据。这将使人道主义机构能够在预测中有足够的信息时，对人道主义危机的预期采取自信的行动，并只有在已知有信心的计划将有效的情况下，才能实施基于预测的筹资计划，如保险或预期资金分配。