Financial planning for natural disasters: the case of flooding risk in Central Java

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Loughborough will co-develop with our local partners and the flooding consultancy JBA associates a 'decision support framework' (or DSF) with demonstration software implemented in R and a series of analyses ('case studies') illustrating the use of loss and financial modelling to plan ahead for the financial consequences of extreme flood events. This DSF will be developed for analysing the potential use of financial instruments in two cities, Solo and Semarang, in Central Java Province, Indonesia. The main research task is developing a structured framework for model based analysis of financial loss from pluvial and fluvial flooding events. This will combine standard spatial data rainfall and flooding with local information e.g. on the exposure of infrastructure such as roads and bridge or location of vulnerable populations. The project will provide a software solution, incorporating exposure and financial modelling, with a graphical user interface for application by local disaster management agencies and other local stakeholders. A series of application case studies will provide illustrative applications at different levels of sophistication. At the end of the project the DSF will be handed over to our two local university partners for them to maintain and support post-project. We will also examine what lessons can be drawn from our research for improving financial planning for natural disasters (flooding and other hazards) and putting in place appropriate pre-arranged financing in Central Java, in other Indonesian provinces and in other countries.