NEC06809 NFLICS: Nowcasting FLood Impacts of Convective storms in the Sahel

NFLICS（萨赫勒对流风暴的临近预报洪水影响）响应了地面救援人员和风险团体对暴雨和可能的洪水影响的预警的迫切需求。在萨赫勒地区，绝大多数山洪暴发是由长期存在的中尺度对流系统（mcs）内的强降雨造成的。在过去的35年里，最强大的MCS在该地区的频率增加了两倍，显然与全球变暖有关。这一气候变化信号伴随着该地区城市的快速扩张，表明山洪暴发的社会经济影响可能在未来几年变得更具破坏性。因此，萨赫勒地区的民防当局和现场救援人员要求通过国家气象和水文部门（NMHS）提供的经过验证的工具和服务，改进对洪水影响可能性的早期预警。NFLICS将通过开发和测试自动化方法来预测塞内加尔6小时的强降雨和可能的洪水影响，从而满足这一需求。它将通过广泛参与共同开发与决策相关的产品和流程来开展合作，以满足用户群体的需求。NFLICS将利用来自卫星分析的最先进的研究成果，这些研究成果已经确定了极端MCS降雨的陆地表面驱动因素，为提高强降雨和洪水的临近预报概率开辟了潜力。历史洪水事件的统计分析可以将这些概率预报与可能的城市洪水破坏联系起来，从而提供基于英国最新先进方法的洪水风险的新预测。较短时间尺度的信息有可能提高对极端降雨事件的复原力和适应性规划。该项目将由生态与水文中心（CEH）领导，塞内加尔将作为这个催化剂资助的案例研究国家。然而，所开发的方法将是开放的、可扩展的，并可转让给萨赫勒地区及其他地区的其他国家。这将主要借助非洲国家预报员可以随时获得的近实时卫星数据。该项目计划是与塞内加尔国家气象机构ANACIM合作制定的，后者也将是这项工作资助的研究成果和能力建设的主要受益者。知识交流活动是一个关键组成部分，利益相关者的参与将由VNG、CEH和ied非洲的专家领导，通过促进与用户的接触和促进双向对话，确保以用户为主导的服务设计。NFLICS将提供一个为期两年的活动计划，最终将在2020年雨季对新的降雨和洪水风险临近预报产品进行实时试验。所有合作伙伴将对此进行审查，并将为业务执行计划提供信息。调查结果将在其他萨赫勒国家和其他国家之间广泛分享，以促进更广泛地吸收和受益项目产出。

NFLICS (Nowcasting FLood Impacts of Convective storms in the Sahel) replies to the pressing demands of on-the-ground responders and risk groups for advance warnings of heavy rainfall and likely flood impact. In the Sahel, the vast majority of flash floods are due to intense rain within long-lived Mesoscale Convective Systems (MCSs). The most powerful MCS have tripled in frequency over the last 35 years in this region, apparently linked to global warming. This climate change signal has been accompanied by rapid urban expansion in the region, and indicates that the socio-economic impacts of flash flooding are likely to become even more devastating in the coming years. As a consequence, civil protection authorities and on-the-ground responders in the Sahel are demanding improved early warnings of the likelihood of flood impact through proven tools and services from National Meteorological and Hydrological Services (NMHS). NFLICS will address this need by developing and testing automated approaches for predictions out to 6 hours of intense rain and likely flood impact in Senegal. It will work in partnership by engaging widely to co-develop decision-relevant products and processes for operational services that meet the demands of the user community. NFLICS will exploit state-of-the-art research findings from satellite analysis that have identified land surface drivers of extreme MCS rainfall, opening up the potential for improved probabilistic nowcasting of intense rain and flooding. Statistical analysis of historical flood events can link these probabilistic nowcasts to likely urban flood damage and thus provide novel forecasts of flood risk, based on recent methods advanced in the UK. Information at shorter timescales has the potential to improve resilience and adaptation planning to extreme rainfall events. The project will be led by the Centre for Ecology & Hydrology (CEH) and, for this catalyst grant, Senegal will be the case study country. However, the methods developed will be open, scalable and transferable to other countries in the Sahel and beyond. This will be aided by primarily using Near Real-Time (NRT) satellite data that are readily available to forecasters in African countries. The project plan has been developed in partnership with ANACIM, the national meteorological agency of Senegal, who will also be a key beneficiary of the research outputs and capacity building funded by the work. Knowledge Exchange activities are a key component and stakeholder participation will be led by experts from VNG, CEH and IED-Afrique to ensure user-led design of services by facilitating engagement with users and promoting two-way dialogues. NFLICS will deliver a 2 year programme of activity that will culminate in a real-time trial of the new rainfall and flood risk nowcast products during the 2020 wet season. This will be reviewed by all partners and will inform operational implementation plans. The findings will be widely shared amongst other Sahel countries, and beyond, to promote wider uptake and benefit of the project outputs.