NEC06809 NFLICS: Nowcasting FLood Impacts of Convective storms in the Sahel

NEC06809 NFLICS：萨赫勒地区对流风暴的临近预报洪水影响

• 批准号: NE/S006087/1
• 负责人: Steven Cole
• 金额: $ 38.83万
• 依托单位: NERC CEH (Up to 30.11.2019)
• 依托单位国家: 英国
• 项目类别: Research Grant
• 财政年份: 2018
• 资助国家: 英国
• 起止时间: 2018 至 无数据
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://gtr.ukri.org/projects?ref=NE%2FS006087%2F1
• 关键词: NEC06809; NFLICS; Nowcasting; FLood; Impacts

NFLICS (Nowcasting FLood Impacts of Convective storms in the Sahel) replies to the pressing demands of on-the-ground responders and risk groups for advance warnings of heavy rainfall and likely flood impact. In the Sahel, the vast majority of flash floods are due to intense rain within long-lived Mesoscale Convective Systems (MCSs). The most powerful MCS have tripled in frequency over the last 35 years in this region, apparently linked to global warming. This climate change signal has been accompanied by rapid urban expansion in the region, and indicates that the socio-economic impacts of flash flooding are likely to become even more devastating in the coming years. As a consequence, civil protection authorities and on-the-ground responders in the Sahel are demanding improved early warnings of the likelihood of flood impact through proven tools and services from National Meteorological and Hydrological Services (NMHS). NFLICS will address this need by developing and testing automated approaches for predictions out to 6 hours of intense rain and likely flood impact in Senegal. It will work in partnership by engaging widely to co-develop decision-relevant products and processes for operational services that meet the demands of the user community. NFLICS will exploit state-of-the-art research findings from satellite analysis that have identified land surface drivers of extreme MCS rainfall, opening up the potential for improved probabilistic nowcasting of intense rain and flooding. Statistical analysis of historical flood events can link these probabilistic nowcasts to likely urban flood damage and thus provide novel forecasts of flood risk, based on recent methods advanced in the UK. Information at shorter timescales has the potential to improve resilience and adaptation planning to extreme rainfall events. The project will be led by the Centre for Ecology & Hydrology (CEH) and, for this catalyst grant, Senegal will be the case study country. However, the methods developed will be open, scalable and transferable to other countries in the Sahel and beyond. This will be aided by primarily using Near Real-Time (NRT) satellite data that are readily available to forecasters in African countries. The project plan has been developed in partnership with ANACIM, the national meteorological agency of Senegal, who will also be a key beneficiary of the research outputs and capacity building funded by the work. Knowledge Exchange activities are a key component and stakeholder participation will be led by experts from VNG, CEH and IED-Afrique to ensure user-led design of services by facilitating engagement with users and promoting two-way dialogues. NFLICS will deliver a 2 year programme of activity that will culminate in a real-time trial of the new rainfall and flood risk nowcast products during the 2020 wet season. This will be reviewed by all partners and will inform operational implementation plans. The findings will be widely shared amongst other Sahel countries, and beyond, to promote wider uptake and benefit of the project outputs.

NFLICS（Nowcasting Flood Impacts of Convective Storms in the Sahel）响应了地面响应者和风险群体对强降雨和可能的洪水影响的提前预警的迫切需求。在萨赫勒地区，绝大多数山洪暴发是由于长期存在的中尺度对流系统（MCS）内的强降雨造成的。在过去35年里，该地区最强大的MCS频率增加了两倍，显然与全球变暖有关。这一气候变化信号伴随着该地区城市的迅速扩张，表明山洪暴发的社会经济影响在未来几年可能变得更具破坏性。因此，萨赫勒地区的民防当局和实地应急人员要求通过国家气象和水文局提供的经验证的工具和服务，改进对洪水可能影响的早期预警。NFLICS将通过开发和测试自动化方法来满足这一需求，预测塞内加尔6小时的强降雨和可能的洪水影响。它将通过广泛参与共同开发与决策相关的产品和流程，以提供满足用户群体需求的业务服务，从而开展伙伴合作。NFLICS将利用卫星分析的最新研究成果，这些研究成果已经确定了极端MCS降雨的地表驱动因素，从而为改进强降雨和洪水的概率临近预报开辟了可能性。历史洪水事件的统计分析可以将这些概率临近预报与可能的城市洪水破坏联系起来，从而根据英国最近提出的方法提供洪水风险的新预测。较短时间尺度的信息有可能改善极端降雨事件的复原力和适应规划。该项目将由生态与水文中心（CEH）领导，塞内加尔将成为该催化剂赠款的案例研究国家。然而，所制定的方法将是开放的、可扩展的，并可转移到萨赫勒和其他地区的其他国家。这将主要通过使用非洲国家预报员随时可以获得的近实时卫星数据来帮助。该项目计划是与塞内加尔国家气象局ANACIM合作制定的，后者也将是该工作资助的研究成果和能力建设的主要受益者。知识交流活动是一个关键组成部分，利益攸关方的参与将由来自VNG、CEH和IED非洲的专家领导，以确保通过促进与用户的接触和促进双向对话，以用户为主导设计服务。NFLICS将提供一个为期2年的活动计划，最终将在2020年雨季对新的降雨和洪水风险临近预报产品进行实时试验。所有合作伙伴将对此进行审查，并将为业务执行计划提供信息。调查结果将在萨赫勒地区其他国家和其他地区广泛分享，以促进更广泛地吸收和受益于项目产出。

项目成果

Nowcasting tracks of severe convective storms in West Africa from observations of land surface state

从地表状态观测预报西非强对流风暴的轨迹

• DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/ac536d
• 发表时间: 2022
• 期刊: Environmental Research Letters
• 影响因子: 6.7
• 作者: Taylor C

Nowcasting Flood Impacts of Convective Storms in the Sahel (NFLICS) Inception workshop report

萨赫勒地区对流风暴的临近预报洪水影响 (NFLICS) 启动研讨会报告

• 发表时间: 2019
• 作者: Centre For Ecology & Hydrology

Tropical Africa's First Testbed for High-Impact Weather Forecasting and Nowcasting

• DOI: 10.1175/bams-d-21-0156.1
• 发表时间: 2023-08-01
• 期刊: BULLETIN OF THE AMERICAN METEOROLOGICAL SOCIETY
• 影响因子: 8
• 作者: Fletcher，J. K.;Diop，C. A.;Walker，D.
• 通讯作者: Walker，D.

The sensitivity of the West African monsoon circulation to intraseasonal soil moisture feedbacks

西非季风环流对季节内土壤湿度反馈的敏感性

• DOI: 10.1002/qj.4274
• 发表时间: 2022
• 期刊: Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society
• 影响因子: 8.9
• 作者: Talib J

Nowcasting Flood Impacts of Convective storms in the Sahel

萨赫勒地区对流风暴的临近预报洪水影响

• DOI: 10.5194/egusphere-egu22-13445
• 发表时间: 2022
• 作者: Cole S