NSFGEO-NERC: Latest Pleistocene-Holocene incremental slip record of the Kekerengu-Jordan fault system, northern South Island, New Zealand

越来越多的证据表明，在单一断层和更复杂的断层系统上发生的大地震不是一个随机过程。越来越多的观测结果表明，地震在时间和空间上都是成组的，断层滑动的速度会发生变化，载荷模式也会发生变化（这会引发地震）。还可以看到，在区域断层系统中，机械互补断层上的滑动可能协调一致地起起伏伏，也就是说，一个断层滑动长达数千年，但随后滑动转移到附近的另一个断层。虽然对这些现象的原因和一般性的透彻理解对于断层力学、地震物理学以及更准确地评估地震危险性具有基本的重要性，但由于缺乏可用的数据，我们评估这些行为的重要性的能力受到严重限制。特别是，对古代地震发生时间的全面观察和对数千年来断层滑动速率变化的测量太少，无法充分评估主要板块边界断层系统在时间和空间上的集体行为。这些主要系统代表了一个构造板块滑过另一个构造板块的位置，是许多大型和破坏性地震发生的地方，增加我们对它们如何工作的知识将大大提高我们预测未来地震概率的能力，并采取措施为这些事件做好准备。我们的国际团队，包括来自英国，美国和新西兰的科学家，将重建新西兰南岛部分马尔伯勒断层系统在过去15,000年的滑动历史，并建立这段时间内古代地震事件的详细记录。我们将把工作重点放在Kekerengu-Jordan逆冲断层系统上;这些断层在2016年11月14日的非常大（7.8级）的凯库拉地震中移动，使我们能够将最近的事件与过去的地震联系起来。

Mounting evidence suggests that the occurrence of large earthquakes on both single faults and more complex fault systems is not a random process. Increasing numbers of observations indicate earthquake clustering in time and space, with changes in the rates at which faults slip, and variations in the patterns of loading (which triggers earthquakes). Also seen are possibly coordinated waxing and waning of slip on mechanically complementary faults in regional fault systems, that is, one fault slipping for a period of time of up to several thousand years, but slip subsequently shifting to another nearby fault at a later time. Although a thorough understanding of both the causes and generality of these phenomena is of basic importance for fault mechanics, earthquake physics, and importantly, for more accurate assessments of seismic hazard, our ability to evaluate the importance of these behaviours has been severely limited by lack of available data. In particular, there are too few comprehensive observations of the timing of ancient earthquakes and measurements of changing fault slip rates over periods of many thousands of years to assess fully the collective behaviour of major plate-boundary fault systems in time and space. These major systems, which represent the locations where one tectonic plate slides past another one, are where many large and damaging earthquakes occur, and increasing our knowledge of how they work will significantly enhance our ability to forecast future earthquake probabilities, and to take steps to prepare for these events.Our international team, including scientists from the UK, USA and New Zealand, will reconstruct the slip history of part of the Marlborough Fault System in South Island, New Zealand, over the last 15,000 years, and build a detailed record of ancient earthquake events over this time. We shall focus our efforts on the Kekerengu-Jordan Thrust System; these faults moved in the very large (magnitude 7.8) Kaikoura earthquake of the 14th November 2016, allowing us to relate this recent event that was recorded in significant detail to past earthquakes.