Pathways Of Dispersal for Cholera And Solution Tools (PODCAST)

霍乱传播途径和解决方案工具 (PODCAST)

• 批准号: NE/S012567/1
• 负责人: Marie-Fanny Racault
• 金额: $ 51.56万
• 依托单位: Plymouth Marine Laboratory
• 依托单位国家: 英国
• 项目类别: Research Grant
• 财政年份: 2019
• 资助国家: 英国
• 起止时间: 2019 至 无数据
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://gtr.ukri.org/projects?ref=NE%2FS012567%2F1
• 关键词: Pathways; Dispersal; Cholera; Solution; Tools

Cholera is a waterborne epidemic disease in humans. It is a major public health threat, affecting 1.3 to 4 million people each year worldwide, with 21,000 to 143,000 reported fatalities. Outbreaks are caused by the bacterial pathogen Vibrio cholerae, found in many coastal, estuarine, and brackish waters around the world. The origin of the current pandemic of cholera was a single population of pathogens in the north-eastern Indian Ocean basin, which spread globally, in several transmission events. Transmission pathways include direct human-to-human infection, and human-environment interactions, including ingestion of contaminated water, aggravated by emerging antimicrobial resistance through release of antibiotics into the environment. Vibrio pathogens are found as free-floating forms or attached to living (plankton) and non-living (sediment) hosts. They flourish under warm temperature, moderate salinity and turbidity. The major environmental reservoirs of Vibrios, their connectivity, how they might be affected by climate variability and the associated impact on human health remain largely unknown. There is a clear imperative to reduce human risk from cholera bacteria to meet Global Goals related to 3-human health, 6-water quality, 13-climate and 14-life under water. Focusing on the northern Indian Ocean, currently a hotbed of outbreaks of cholera and related diseases, the PODCAST project will pinpoint the impact of large-scale oceanic and climatic processes on the transmission dynamics of cholera (Goals 6, 13, 14) and their impact on public health (Goal 3). Scientists from India, Japan and the UK will work collaboratively to: 1) identify environmental reservoirs of Vibrio cholerae as well as possible advective transport via ocean currents and long-distance transmission routes for cholera outbreaks; 2) characterise the influence of climate perturbations on cholera outbreaks and environmental transmission routes; 3) build an epidemiological model integrating environmental and human-to-human transmission routes; and 4) produce forecasts for cholera outbreaks in coastal regions. The research will be developed in consultation with end-users, including local communities relying on water resources for livelihoods, income generation and recreation; governments; health services; intergovernmental agencies; and policy makers for whom we will provide tools and Vibrio disease risk map products that will support evidence-based policy decisions and actions to achieve Global Goals.The work will be organised in four Work Packages. WP1 (Abdulaziz-India; Sathyendranath-UK) will generate new in situ observations of biophysical variables (including Vibrio pathogens and antibiotics) at selected sites in open-ocean and coastal locations; and process satellite data (ocean-colour, salinity, altimeter and temperature) over entire northern Indian Ocean. WP2 (Platt-UK; Clark-UK; Nonaka-Japan), focussing on models and using data from WP1, will develop an epidemiological model including components of human-to-human and environmental transmission routes of cholera outbreaks; a particle-tracking model to study sources and connectivity between environmental reservoirs of Vibrios; and a climate-variability model to generate past and future indices of large-scale patterns of climate variability. WP3 (Racault-UK), based on the influence of environmental conditions, regional circulation and climate variability on risks of outbreaks at coastal locations in the northern Indian Ocean (WP 2), will focus on producing a cholera-outbreak prediction system for coastal regions of the northern Indian Ocean. The user-engagement, policy information and practice interventions will be addressed in WP4 (Menon-India; George-India) in which we will engage with local communities, policy-makers, and intergovernmental agencies (WHO, IPCC) to identify needs, assess benefits, best practices and uptake of results from PODCAST to reduce risks of Vibrio diseases to public health.

霍乱是一种通过水传播的人类流行病。它是一个重大的公共卫生威胁，每年影响全世界130万至400万人，据报死亡人数为21 000至143 000人。霍乱爆发是由细菌病原体霍乱弧菌引起的，霍乱弧菌在世界各地的许多沿海、河口和半咸水沃茨中发现。目前霍乱大流行病的起源是印度洋东北部盆地的单一病原体种群，在几次传播事件中，这些病原体在全球范围内传播。传播途径包括人与人之间的直接感染，以及人与环境的相互作用，包括摄入受污染的水，通过将抗生素释放到环境中而出现的抗生素耐药性加剧了这种相互作用。弧菌病原体被发现为自由漂浮形式或附着于生物（浮游生物）和非生物（沉积物）宿主。它们在温暖的温度、中等的盐度和浑浊度下生长旺盛。弧菌的主要环境储存库，它们的连通性，它们如何受到气候变化的影响以及对人类健康的相关影响在很大程度上仍然未知。显然，必须减少霍乱细菌对人类的风险，以实现与3-人类健康，6-水质，13-气候和14-水下生命相关的全球目标。PODCAST项目的重点是北方印度洋，该地区目前是霍乱和相关疾病爆发的温床，该项目将查明大规模海洋和气候过程对霍乱传播动态的影响（目标6、13、14）及其对公共卫生的影响（目标3）。来自印度、日本和英国的科学家将合作开展以下工作：1）确定霍乱弧菌的环境储存库，以及可能通过洋流和霍乱爆发的长距离传播途径进行的平流传播; 2）研究气候扰动对霍乱爆发和环境传播途径的影响; 3）建立一个综合环境和人与人之间传播途径的流行病学模型;（4）预测沿海地区霍乱的爆发。该研究将在与最终用户协商的基础上开展，包括依赖水资源谋生、创收和娱乐的当地社区;政府;卫生服务机构;政府间机构;以及政策制定者，我们将为他们提供工具和弧菌病风险地图产品，以支持基于证据的政策决策和行动，以实现全球目标。WP1（Abdulaziz-India; Sathyendranath-UK）将在公海和沿海地区的选定地点对生物物理变量（包括弧菌病原体和抗生素）进行新的现场观测;并处理整个北方印度洋的卫星数据（海洋颜色、盐度、高度计和温度）。WP2（Platt-UK;克拉克-英国; Nonaka-日本），侧重于模型和使用WP 1的数据，将开发一个流行病学模型，包括霍乱爆发的人与人之间和环境传播途径的组成部分;一个粒子跟踪模型，以研究弧菌的来源和环境水库之间的连通性;以及一个气候变率模型，以生成过去和未来大规模气候变率模式的指数。WP 3（英国拉考特）以环境条件、区域环流和气候变异对北方印度洋沿海地区暴发风险的影响为基础（WP 2），将侧重于建立一个北方印度洋沿海地区霍乱暴发预测系统。用户参与，政策信息和实践干预将在WP 4（Menon-India; George-India）中解决，我们将与当地社区，政策制定者和政府间机构（WHO，IPCC）合作，以确定需求，评估效益，最佳实践和PODCAST结果的吸收，以减少弧菌病对公共卫生的风险。

项目成果

An introduction to the 'Oceans and Society: Blue Planet' initiative

“海洋与社会：蓝色星球”倡议简介

• DOI: 10.1080/1755876x.2019.1634959
• 发表时间: 2019
• 期刊: Journal of Operational Oceanography
• 影响因子: 3.1
• 作者: Smail E

Cholera Risk: A Machine Learning Approach Applied to Essential Climate Variables.

• DOI: 10.3390/ijerph17249378
• 发表时间: 2020-12-15
• 期刊: International journal of environmental research and public health
• 作者: Campbell AM;Racault MF;Goult S;Laurenson A
• 通讯作者: Laurenson A

Climate Precursors of Satellite Water Marker Index for Spring Cholera Outbreak in Northern Bay of Bengal Coastal Regions.

孟加拉沿海地区北部湾区春季霍乱爆发的卫星水标记指数的气候前体。

• DOI: 10.3390/ijerph181910201
• 发表时间: 2021-09-28
• 期刊: International journal of environmental research and public health
• 作者: Ogata T;Racault MF;Nonaka M;Behera S
• 通讯作者: Behera S

Environmental Reservoirs of Vibrio cholerae: Challenges and Opportunities for Ocean-Color Remote Sensing

• DOI: 10.3390/rs11232763
• 发表时间: 2019-11
• 期刊: Remote. Sens.
• 作者: Marie‐Fanny Racault;A. Abdulaziz;Grinson George;N. Menon;C. Jasmin;Minu Punathil;Kristian McConville-Kristian-McConvi

A machine learning based prediction system for the Indian Ocean Dipole.

基于机器学习的印度洋偶极子预测系统。

• DOI: 10.1038/s41598-019-57162-8
• 发表时间: 2020
• 期刊: Scientific reports
• 影响因子: 4.6
• 作者: Ratnam JV