Explaining and Predicting the Migration and Phenology of Europe-African Migratory Birds

解释和预测欧洲-非洲候鸟的迁徙和物候

• 批准号: NE/T001038/1
• 负责人: Stephen G. Willis
• 金额: $ 49.95万
• 依托单位: Durham University
• 依托单位国家: 英国
• 项目类别: Research Grant
• 财政年份: 2020
• 资助国家: 英国
• 起止时间: 2020 至 无数据
• 项目状态: 未结题
• 来源: https://gtr.ukri.org/projects?ref=NE%2FT001038%2F1
• 关键词: Explaining; Predicting; Migration; Phenology; Europe

The migration of birds from temperate and arctic breeding grounds to lower latitudes for the non-breeding season is a major global wildlife event, comprising billions of birds and providing an important component of global ecosystems. Some of these movements are truly amazing - some 12 gram birds fly 3000km non-stop to reach their non-breeding grounds. The majority of inter-continental terrestrial migrations are undertaken by songbirds, which migrate across broad fronts, often stopping to refuel on their journey. Despite intensive study on the breeding grounds, and to a lesser extent the non-breeding grounds and stop-over sites, research to simulate the migratory journeys themselves, or to test theoretic models of migration for such species, is rare. A generic model of migration has never been applied to songbirds undertaking the Europe- trans-Saharan migration; this is a major objective of this proposal. In light of projections of climate and land-use changes on the breeding, non-breeding and stop-over grounds of these species, such models are urgently required. Migrants could be especially vulnerable to climate change given their reliance on the linkage between widely-separated areas, which are potentially undergoing very different changes.The main limitation to developing and testing models of songbird migration has been an inability to monitor individual movements so as to understand their routes and strategies. The recent development of geolocator trackers, which record time and location and can be used on the smaller species that comprise the majority of migrants, has provided data to test migration models for the first time. Here, we will collate tracking, and extensive ringing and observation data for trans-Saharan migrants, to better understand their migratory routes and decisions. Simultaneously, we will develop flight models for individual species, which consider species-specific physiology and form to determine their flight-range potential. We will use the outputs in spatially-explicit dynamic programming (DP) models, and will test their ability to replicate observed patterns of migration. This will build on earlier work modelling optimal migration using very simple systems. We have already developed pilot flight range models that replicate well the timing and routes of migration of tracked individuals of species with near-linear migrations. Building on these data, we will use DP models, with realistic landscape resources/costs, to evaluate optimal migratory routes and refuelling locations given temporally-constrained destination rewards (i.e., likely breeding success). We will consider landscapes with dynamic resource availability, based on factors such as species-specific habitat preferences and likely food availability (based on weather and NDVI), and will include factors such as wind direction, location (relative to time of year) and an individual's energy stores to determine whether they should stay or, if not, where they should move to. We will use these models to explore inter-annual variation in arrival dates at migratory end-points, to aid understanding of what drives phenological changes in migratory species, and to test theories of what determines migratory decisions.Modelling formalises our understanding of migration, making explicit our assumptions and any gaps in available data. Crucially, it can also inform our understanding of the migratory process and how that process will be influenced by future environmental changes. The end product will be a much better understanding of the drivers of the routes and strategies of long-distance migrants, and a modelling framework that can be applied to a wide suite of migratory passerines in different regions, or under scenarios of climate and land-use change, to simulate consequences for migratory journeys.

鸟类在非繁殖季节从温带和北极繁殖地迁徙到低纬度地区是一项重大的全球野生动物事件，涉及数十亿只鸟类，是全球生态系统的重要组成部分。其中一些动作真的很惊人——一些12克重的鸟不间断地飞行3000公里到达它们的非繁殖地。大部分大陆间的陆地迁徙是由鸣禽完成的，它们跨越广阔的前线，经常在旅途中停下来补充能量。尽管对繁殖地进行了深入的研究，并在较小程度上对非繁殖地和中途停留地进行了研究，但模拟迁徙过程本身或测试此类物种迁徙理论模型的研究却很少。一个通用的迁徙模型从来没有被应用于进行欧洲-跨撒哈拉迁徙的鸣禽；这是本提案的一个主要目标。鉴于气候和土地利用变化对这些物种繁殖地、非繁殖地和中途停留地的预测，迫切需要这样的模型。移民可能特别容易受到气候变化的影响，因为他们依赖于相隔很远的地区之间的联系，而这些地区可能正在经历非常不同的变化。开发和测试鸣禽迁徙模型的主要限制是无法监测个体的运动，从而了解它们的路线和策略。最近开发的地理定位器追踪器可以记录时间和位置，并可用于构成大多数迁移者的较小物种，首次为测试迁移模型提供了数据。在这里，我们将整理跨撒哈拉移民的跟踪、广泛的电话和观测数据，以更好地了解他们的迁徙路线和决定。同时，我们将开发单个物种的飞行模型，考虑物种特定的生理和形态来确定它们的飞行范围潜力。我们将在空间显式动态规划（DP）模型中使用输出，并将测试它们复制观察到的迁移模式的能力。这将建立在使用非常简单的系统对最佳迁移进行建模的早期工作的基础上。我们已经开发了飞行员飞行范围模型，可以很好地复制具有近线性迁徙的物种的跟踪个体的迁徙时间和路线。在这些数据的基础上，我们将使用DP模型，与现实的景观资源/成本，以评估最佳的迁徙路线和加油地点给定的临时约束目的地奖励（即可能的繁殖成功）。我们将考虑具有动态资源可用性的景观，基于物种特定的栖息地偏好和可能的食物可用性（基于天气和NDVI）等因素，并将包括风向、位置（相对于一年中的时间）和个体的能量储存等因素，以决定它们是否应该留下来，如果不应该，它们应该搬到哪里去。我们将使用这些模型来探索迁徙终点到达日期的年际变化，以帮助理解是什么驱动了迁徙物种的物候变化，并检验决定迁徙决定的理论。建模使我们对移民的理解形式化，明确了我们的假设和可用数据中的任何空白。至关重要的是，它还可以让我们了解迁徙过程，以及这一过程将如何受到未来环境变化的影响。最终结果将是更好地理解长途迁徙路线和策略的驱动因素，并建立一个建模框架，该框架可应用于不同地区或气候和土地利用变化情景下的大量迁徙雀鸟，以模拟迁徙旅程的后果。

项目成果

Using indices of species' potential range to inform conservation status

使用物种潜在范围指数来了解保护状况

• DOI: 10.1016/j.ecolind.2021.107343
• 发表时间: 2021
• 期刊: Ecological Indicators
• 影响因子: 6.9
• 作者: Mason T

Local colonisations and extinctions of European birds are poorly explained by changes in climate suitability.

欧洲鸟类的局部殖民和灭绝很难用气候适宜性的变化来解释。

• DOI: 10.1038/s41467-023-39093-1
• 发表时间: 2023-07-20
• 期刊: NATURE COMMUNICATIONS
• 影响因子: 16.6
• 作者: Howard, Christine;Marjakangas, Emma-Liina;Moran-Ordonez, Alejandra;Milanesi, Pietro;Abuladze, Aleksandre;Aghababyan, Karen;Ajder, Vitalie;Arkumarev, Volen;Balmer, Dawn E.;Bauer, Hans-Guenther;Beale, Colin M.;Bino, Taulant;Boyla, Kerem Ali;Burfield, Ian J.;Burke, Brian;Caffrey, Brian;Chodkiewicz, Tomasz;Del Moral, Juan Carlos;Mazal, Vlatka Dumbovic;Fernandez, Nestor;Fornasari, Lorenzo;Gerlach, Bettina;Godinho, Carlos;Herrando, Sergi;Ieronymidou, Christina;Johnston, Alison;Jovicevic, Mihailo;Kalyakin, Mikhail;Keller, Verena;Knaus, Peter;Kotrosan, Drazen;Kuzmenko, Tatiana;Leito, Domingos;Lindstroem, Ake;Maxhuni, Qenan;Mihelic, Tomaz;Mikuska, Tibor;Molina, Blas;Nagy, Karoly;Noble, David;Olen, Ingar Jostein;Paquet, Jean-Yves;Pladevall, Clara;Portolou, Danae;Radisic, Dimitrije;Rajkov, Sasa;Rajkovic, Drazenko Z.;Raudonikis, Liutauras;Sattler, Thomas;Saveljic, Darko;Shimmings, Paul;Sjenicic, Jovica;Stastny, Karel;Stoychev, Stoycho;Strus, Iurii;Sudfeldt, Christoph;Sultanov, Elchin;Szep, Tibor;Teufelbauer, Norbert;Uzunova, Danka;van Turnhout, Chris A. M.;Velevski, Metodija;Vikstrom, Thomas;Vintchevski, Alexandre;Voltzit, Olga;Vorisek, Petr;Wilk, Tomasz;Zurell, Damaris;Brotons, Lluis;Lehikoinen, Aleksi;Willis, Stephen G.
• 通讯作者: Willis, Stephen G.

Disentangling the relative roles of climate and land cover change in driving the long-term population trends of European migratory birds

• DOI: 10.1111/ddi.13144
• 发表时间: 2020-08-12
• 期刊: DIVERSITY AND DISTRIBUTIONS
• 影响因子: 4.6
• 作者: Howard, Christine;Stephens, Philip A.;Willis, Stephen G.
• 通讯作者: Willis, Stephen G.

Explaining and predicting animal migration under global change

解释和预测全球变化下的动物迁徙

• DOI: 10.1111/ddi.13797
• 发表时间: 2023
• 期刊: Diversity and Distributions
• 影响因子: 4.6
• 作者: Howard C

dynamicSDM : An R package for species geographical distribution and abundance modelling at high spatiotemporal resolution

DynamicSDM：用于高时空分辨率下物种地理分布和丰度建模的 R 包

• DOI: 10.1111/2041-210x.14101
• 发表时间: 2023
• 期刊: Methods in Ecology and Evolution
• 影响因子: 6.6
• 作者: Dobson R