IMPLICATIONS OF INTRASPECIFIC TRAIT VARIABILITY ACROSS DIFFERENT ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS FOR PROJECTIONS OF MARINE ECOSYSTEM FUTURES

纵观历史，我们周围的海岸和大陆架海一直是人类繁荣和福祉的焦点。它们的社会重要性不仅限于粮食生产，还包括生物多样性、营养循环、娱乐和可再生能源。随着沿海人口密度的上升，这些生态效益逐渐受到人类活动的损害；过度捕捞、污染、栖息地破坏、气候变化。重要的是，拥有高度生物多样性的沉积物群落尤其受到影响，因为大多数物种无法移动以避免干扰。这是令人担忧的，因为海底状况、生物多样性和人类社会是密不可分的。因此，重要的是能够评估和了解海底的生态状况与提供生态系统利益的关系，以便能够更有效地管理人类的压力，以确保我们海洋的长期可持续性。科学研究考虑了物种在环境中的作用以及生物多样性丧失的生态后果。从这些工作中，可以对未来的环境状况和相关的社会效益进行预测。这些模型在很大程度上假设物种的作用以及它们对扰动的反应是明确定义和表征的。但这些假设都是基于当前的条件，很少得到客观的验证，也很少在预期的未来条件下进行实验检验。这是令人担忧的，因为负责管理海洋环境的政府机构和其他机构使用这些模型预测来规划未来。因此，迫切需要了解物种在干扰事件发生之前、期间和之后如何响应和影响生态系统特性。不同物种调节生态系统特性的能力将取决于每个物种的贡献作用，因为有些物种对干扰不敏感，而另一些物种则更容易受到变化的影响。这些反应的平衡将决定海底提供商品和服务的能力，这使得很难评估物种敏感性或对我们未来可以从海洋获得的利益作出一般性陈述。我们将汇集具有生态学、生理学、遗传学和数值模拟专业知识的科学家来解决这些缺点，以测试关键物种在当前和未来条件下对生态系统特性的反应和影响。我们将看到不同类型的干扰如何改变物种行为，并随后影响生态系统特性（例如养分循环）。营养物质很重要，因为它们支持浮游植物和藻类的生长，而浮游植物和藻类是海洋食物网的基础。在我们的实验中，我们将记录由于蠕虫、蛤蜊、海胆和海星混合沉积物而释放到水中的营养物质水平。通过对一系列环境条件（突发性和长期强迫）进行研究，我们将确定暴露于不同的干扰制度及其组合如何影响这些重要过程。我们将通过测量支撑适应的分子机制来确定每个物种的生理表现。这将告诉我们物种是否能够适应新的环境条件，以及这种适应性调整是否会影响其他重要物种的作用。通过将营养物质和沉积物混合数据与多代生物的生理条件相匹配，我们将大大提高对物种如何应对未来环境的理解，进而影响主要的生态系统特性。我们将利用这些信息与Cefas共同设计和实施一个新的模型，该模型充分表征了变化条件下物种的贡献，使英国处于独特和无与伦比的地位，可以提供准确的生态系统完整性预测，以支持政策。

The coasts and shelf seas that surround us have been the focal point of human prosperity and well-being throughout history. Their societal importance extends beyond food production, and includes biodiversity, nutrient cycling, recreation and renewable energy. As coastal population densities are rising, these ecological benefits become progressively compromised by human activities; overfishing, pollution, habitat disturbance, climate change. Importantly, sediment communities that harbour high levels of biodiversity are particularly affected, because most species are unable to move to avoid disturbance. This is worrying because seabed condition, biodiversity and human society are inextricably linked. It is important, therefore, to be able to assess and understand how the ecological condition of the seabed relates to the provision of ecosystem benefits so that human pressures can be managed more effectively to ensure the long-term sustainability of our seas.Scientific research has considered species roles in the environment and the ecological consequences of biodiversity loss. From this body of work it has been possible to construct projections of future environmental condition and associated societal benefits. These models largely assume that the roles of species and how they respond to perturbation are well-defined and characterized. But these assumptions are based on present-day conditions and have seldom been objectively validated or experimentally tested under anticipated future conditions. This is worrying because Government agencies and other bodies tasked with managing the marine environment use these model projections to plan for the future. Hence, there is an urgent need to understand how species respond to and effect ecosystem properties prior to, during and post-disturbance events. The capacity of different species to mediate ecosystem properties will depend on the contributory role of each species, as some species will be insensitive to disturbance, while others will be more vulnerable to change. The balance of these responses will determine the seabed's capacity to provide goods and services, which makes it very difficult to assess species sensitivities or make general statements about what benefits we can expect from our seas in the future.We will address these shortcomings by bringing together scientists with expertise in ecology, physiology, genetics and numerical modeling to test how key species respond to and affect ecosystem properties under present and future conditions. We will see how different types of disturbance alter species behaviour and, subsequently, affect ecosystem properties (e.g. nutrient cycling). Nutrients are important as they support the growth of phytoplankton and algae, which underpin the ocean's food web. In our experiments, we will record the levels of nutrients released into the water as a result of sediment mixing by worms, clams, urchins and brittlestars. By doing this for a range of environmental conditions (abrupt vs. long-term forcing) we will establish how exposure to different disturbance regimes, and their combinations, affect these important processes. We will determine the physiological performance of each species by measuring the molecular mechanisms that underpin adaptation. This will tell us whether species are able to adapt to new environmental conditions and whether such adaptive adjustments impinge on other important species roles. By matching the nutrient and sediment mixing data with physiological conditions across multiple generations, we will considerably improve understanding of how species may respond to future environments and, in turn, affect major ecosystem properties. We will use this information to co-design and implement, with Cefas, a new model that adequately characterises species contributions under changing conditions, placing the UK in a unique and unparalleled position to deliver accurate forecasts of ecosystem integrity in support of policy.