CIRCULATES - Circulation, Clouds and Climate Sensitivity

循环 - 循环、云和气候敏感性

• 批准号: NE/T006269/1
• 负责人: Michael Byrne
• 金额: $ 61.45万
• 依托单位: University of St Andrews
• 依托单位国家: 英国
• 项目类别: Research Grant
• 财政年份: 2020
• 资助国家: 英国
• 起止时间: 2020 至 无数据
• 项目状态: 未结题
• 来源: https://gtr.ukri.org/projects?ref=NE%2FT006269%2F1
• 关键词: CIRCULATES; Circulation; Clouds; Climate; Sensitivity

Climate models are numerical models used to make projections of future climate change. Because of limitations in computing power, approximations to some parts of the model are required, particularly on small scales where important processes occur that are smaller than the model grid on which calculations are carried out. It is not clear how best to approximate small-scale processes and as a result, different GCMs use different approximations and produce different predictions of future climate change. One of the most important of these uncertainties is how low clouds are represented, and that is the focus of the CIRCULATES proposal.We now have access to new, high resolution satellite observations that we can use to build datasets that give us a much better idea of how clouds form and disperse, and how they interact with the environment in which they find themselves. We also have high resolution modelling tools that are able to represent the physical processes necessary to simulate clouds with much higher accuracy. High resolution models are far too computationally expensive to run for many model years over the whole globe in a way that could be used to project changes in climate directly. However, in conjunction with the satellite data, they can be used to determine the best way to represent the effects of clouds on the GCM model grid. This information can be transferred to the climate model, which can then be run to discover the impact of our findings on global climate change. In CIRCULATES, we propose to develop both new satellite data and high resolution simulations that are specifically designed to assist with improving and understanding the response of climate models with a focus on tropical and sub-tropical clouds.The project aims to assist the climate science and policy communities in two ways. First, the discoveries that we make will be used to assess the simulations made by climate models run by modelling centres around the world for the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) reports. How well are IPCC GCMs representing cloud processes in the present day? How does their representation change for simulations of the future and is this appropriate? By determining the fidelity of simulation in comparison with high resolution satellite and model data, we will determine the extent to which model simulations can be trusted, with the aim of constraining the likely range of future climate change. Second, we will develop metrics that are useful not only for constraining projections but also for model developers who are building the next generation of models. Our project has strong collaboration with the Met Office, who, together with the academic community, are the primary developers of models used for understanding climate change in the UK. We will engage with key Met Office and UKESM staff on a regular basis in order to determine how our results may be made most useful to model development.

气候模型是用于预测未来气候变化的数值模型。由于计算能力的限制，需要对模型的某些部分进行近似，特别是在发生重要过程且小于执行计算的模型网格的小尺度上。目前尚不清楚如何最好地近似小规模过程，因此，不同的全球气候模型使用不同的近似值并对未来气候变化产生不同的预测。这些不确定性中最重要的一个是低云的表现方式，这也是 CIRCULATES 提案的重点。我们现在可以获得新的高分辨率卫星观测数据，我们可以使用这些观测数据来构建数据集，使我们更好地了解云如何形成和分散，以及它们如何与它们所在的环境相互作用。我们还拥有高分辨率建模工具，能够以更高的精度表示模拟云所需的物理过程。高分辨率模型的计算成本太高，无法以可用于直接预测气候变化的方式在全球范围内运行许多模型年。然而，结合卫星数据，它们可用于确定表示云对 GCM 模型网格影响的最佳方式。这些信息可以转移到气候模型中，然后运行该模型来发现我们的发现对全球气候变化的影响。在循环中，我们建议开发新的卫星数据和高分辨率模拟，专门用于帮助改进和理解气候模型的响应，重点关注热带和亚热带云。该项目旨在以两种方式协助气候科学和政策界。首先，我们的发现将用于评估世界各地模拟中心为政府间气候变化专门委员会 (IPCC) 报告运行的气候模型所做的模拟。如今，IPCC GCM 能否很好地代表云流程？对于未来的模拟，它们的表示会如何变化？这是否合适？通过与高分辨率卫星和模型数据比较确定模拟的保真度，我们将确定模型模拟的可信程度，以限制未来气候变化的可能范围。其次，我们将开发不仅对约束预测有用，而且对构建下一代模型的模型开发人员有用的指标。我们的项目与英国气象局有着密切的合作，英国气象局与学术界是用于了解英国气候变化的模型的主要开发者。我们将定期与英国气象局和 UKESM 的主要工作人员接触，以确定如何使我们的结果对模型开发最有用。

项目成果

Effects of Circulation on Tropical Cloud Feedbacks in High-Resolution Simulations

高分辨率模拟中环流对热带云反馈的影响

• DOI: 10.1029/2022ms003516
• 发表时间: 2023
• 期刊: Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems
• 影响因子: 6.8
• 作者: Mackie A

Climate Models Underestimate Dynamic Cloud Feedbacks in the Tropics

气候模型低估了热带地区的动态云反馈

• DOI: 10.1029/2023gl104573
• 发表时间: 2023
• 期刊: Geophysical Research Letters
• 影响因子: 5.2
• 作者: Hill P