Wider Impacts of Subpolar nortH atlantic decadal variaBility on the OceaN and atmospherE' (WISHBONE)

北大西洋副极地年代际变化对海洋和大气的更广泛影响 (WISHBONE)

• 批准号: NE/T013540/1
• 负责人: Bablu Sinha
• 金额: $ 36.32万
• 依托单位: NATIONAL OCEANOGRAPHY CENTRE
• 依托单位国家: 英国
• 项目类别: Research Grant
• 财政年份: 2020
• 资助国家: 英国
• 起止时间: 2020 至 无数据
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://gtr.ukri.org/projects?ref=NE%2FT013540%2F1
• 关键词: Wider; Impacts; Subpolar; nortH; atlantic

The Subpolar North Atlantic (SNA), which is the region of the Atlantic Ocean between 45-65N latitude, is a highly variable region. Surface temperatures and surface salinity here have varied on a range of time-scales, but the changes are dominated by large and slow changes on decadal or longer timescales. This decadal timescale variability appears to form a key component of a larger climate mode, the Atlantic Multidecadal Variability, which has been linked to a broad range of important climate impacts, including rainfall in the North African and south Asian monsoons, floods and droughts over Europe and North America, and the number of hurricanes. The SNA is also one of the most predictable places on Earth at decadal timescales, which suggests the potential for improved predictions of regional climate and high-impact weather years ahead. However, the origins of this variability in the SNA, and the processes controlling its impacts, are far from fully understood. There is significant evidence to suggest that anomalous heat loss from the subpolar North Atlantic Ocean to the atmosphere can instigate a cascade of changes across the North Atlantic basin in both the ocean and atmosphere. For example, changes in the SNA can change the strength of the ocean circulation to the south, affect the northward transport of heat and freshwater in the North Atlantic, and subsequently affect the upper ocean temperatures and salinity across the whole North Atlantic basin, and into the Arctic. Changes in the subpolar North Atlantic surface temperature are also thought to affect the atmospheric circulation - i.e. wind patterns - in both summer and winter. However, observational records are very short, and so there are significant problems with understanding causality, and considerable uncertainty about how well many of the important processes are represented in current climate models. WISHBONE will make use of new advanced climate simulations and forecast systems to make progress in understanding the impact of the subpolar North Atlantic on the wider North Atlantic basin. It will also test specific hypotheses related to understanding the specific role of heat loss over the subpolar North Atlantic in driving changes throughout the basin including the role of surface anomalies in driving wind patterns. WISHBONE is a collaboration between the National Centre for Atmospheric Science at the University of Reading, The National Oceanography Centre Southampton, The University of Oxford, and The University of Southampton from the U.K., and The National Center for Atmospheric Research, from the U.S.

亚极地北大西洋(SNA)是大西洋北纬45-65度之间的区域，是一个高度多变的区域。这里的表面温度和表面盐度在一系列时间尺度上都有变化，但这种变化是由十年或更长时间尺度上的大而缓慢的变化主导的。这种十年时间尺度的变化似乎构成了一个更大的气候模式--大西洋十年变化的一个重要组成部分，这种变化与一系列重要的气候影响有关，包括北非和南亚季风的降雨、欧洲和北美的洪水和干旱，以及飓风的数量。在十年时间尺度上，SNA也是地球上最可预测的地方之一，这表明对未来几年区域气候和高影响天气的预测有可能得到改善。然而，SNA中这种差异的来源以及控制其影响的过程还远未完全了解。有重要证据表明，北大西洋次极地向大气的异常热损失可能会在北大西洋盆地的海洋和大气中引发一系列变化。例如，SNA的变化可能会改变向南的海洋环流强度，影响北大西洋热量和淡水向北的输送，从而影响整个北大西洋盆地的上层海洋温度和盐度，并进入北极。亚极地北大西洋表面温度的变化也被认为会影响夏季和冬季的大气环流--即风型。然而，观测记录非常短，因此在理解因果关系方面存在重大问题，而且在许多重要过程在当前气候模型中被很好地描述方面存在相当大的不确定性。Wishbone将利用新的先进气候模拟和预报系统，在了解亚极地北大西洋对更广泛的北大西洋盆地的影响方面取得进展。它还将测试与理解北大西洋亚极上空的热损失在推动整个盆地变化方面的具体作用有关的具体假设，包括地面异常在驱动风型方面的作用。Wishbone是由来自英国雷丁大学的国家大气科学中心、南安普顿国家海洋学中心、牛津大学和南安普顿大学以及来自美国的国家大气研究中心共同合作的。

项目成果

The decrease in ocean heat transport in response to global warming

• DOI: 10.1038/s41558-023-01829-8
• 发表时间: 2023-10
• 期刊: Nature Climate Change
• 影响因子: 30.7
• 作者: J. Mecking;S. Drijfhout

Subpolar Atlantic Ocean mixed layer heat content variability is increasingly driven by an active ocean

• DOI: 10.1038/s43247-022-00433-6
• 发表时间: 2022-05-18
• 期刊: COMMUNICATIONS EARTH & ENVIRONMENT
• 影响因子: 7.9
• 作者: Josey, Simon A.;Sinha, Bablu
• 通讯作者: Sinha, Bablu

Mechanisms for Late 20th and Early 21st Century Decadal AMOC Variability

20 世纪末和 21 世纪初 AMOC 年代际变异的机制

• DOI: 10.1029/2021jc017865
• 发表时间: 2021
• 期刊: Oceans
• 作者: Megann A

Labrador Sea subsurface density as a precursor of multidecadal variability in the North Atlantic: a multi-model study

• DOI: 10.5194/esd-12-419-2021
• 发表时间: 2021-04-26
• 期刊: EARTH SYSTEM DYNAMICS
• 影响因子: 7.3
• 作者: Ortega, Pablo;Robson, Jon, I;Yeager, Stephen
• 通讯作者: Yeager, Stephen