Wider impacts of Subpolar North Atlantic decadal variability on the ocean and atmosphere (WISHBONE)

北大西洋副极地年代际变率对海洋和大气的更广泛影响（WISHBONE）

• 批准号: NE/T013516/1
• 负责人: Jon Robson
• 金额: $ 45.4万
• 依托单位: University of Reading
• 依托单位国家: 英国
• 项目类别: Research Grant
• 财政年份: 2020
• 资助国家: 英国
• 起止时间: 2020 至 无数据
• 项目状态: 未结题
• 来源: https://gtr.ukri.org/projects?ref=NE%2FT013516%2F1
• 关键词: Wider; impacts; Subpolar; North; Atlantic

The Subpolar North Atlantic (SNA), which is the region of the Atlantic Ocean between 45-65N latitude, is a highly variable region. Surface temperatures and surface salinity here have varied on a range of time-scales, but the changes are dominated by large and slow changes on decadal or longer timescales. This decadal timescale variability appears to form a key component of a larger climate mode, the Atlantic Multidecadal Variability, which has been linked to a broad range of important climate impacts, including rainfall in the North African and south Asian monsoons, floods and droughts over Europe and North America, and the number of hurricanes. The SNA is also one of the most predictable places on Earth at decadal timescales, which suggests the potential for improved predictions of regional climate and high-impact weather years ahead. However, the origins of this variability in the SNA, and the processes controlling its impacts, are far from fully understood. There is significant evidence to suggest that anomalous heat loss from the subpolar North Atlantic Ocean to the atmosphere can instigate a cascade of changes across the North Atlantic basin in both the ocean and atmosphere. For example, changes in the SNA can change the strength of the ocean circulation to the south, affect the northward transport of heat and freshwater in the North Atlantic, and subsequently affect the upper ocean temperatures and salinity across the whole North Atlantic basin, and into the Arctic. Changes in the subpolar North Atlantic surface temperature are also thought to affect the atmospheric circulation - i.e. wind patterns - in both summer and winter. However, observational records are very short, and so there are significant problems with understanding causality, and considerable uncertainty about how well many of the important processes are represented in current climate models. WISHBONE will make use of new advanced climate simulations and forecast systems to make progress in understanding the impact of the subpolar North Atlantic on the wider North Atlantic basin. It will also test specific hypotheses related to understanding the specific role of heat loss over the subpolar North Atlantic in driving changes throughout the basin including the role of surface anomalies in driving wind patterns. WISHBONE is a collaboration between the National Centre for Atmospheric Science at the University of Reading, The National Oceanography Centre Southampton, The University of Oxford, and The University of Southampton from the U.K., and The National Center for Atmospheric Research, from the U.S.

亚极地北大西洋（SNA）是大西洋北纬45- 65之间的区域，是一个高度可变的区域。地表温度和盐度在一系列时间尺度上变化，但在十年或更长的时间尺度上的变化是大而缓慢的。这种十年时间尺度的变率似乎构成了一个更大的气候模式-大西洋多年变率-的一个关键组成部分，它与广泛的重要气候影响有关，包括北非和南亚季风的降雨、欧洲和北美的洪水和干旱以及飓风的次数。SNA也是地球上十年时间尺度上最可预测的地方之一，这表明有可能改进对未来几年区域气候和高影响天气的预测。然而，国民账户体系中这种可变性的根源以及控制其影响的过程远未得到充分理解。有重要证据表明，从北大西洋副极地到大气层的异常热损失可以在整个北大西洋海盆的海洋和大气中引发一连串的变化。例如，国民账户体系的变化可以改变海洋环流向南的强度，影响北大西洋热量和淡水向北的输送，从而影响整个北大西洋盆地和北极的上层海洋温度和盐度。北大西洋副极地表面温度的变化也被认为会影响夏季和冬季的大气环流，即风的模式。然而，观测记录非常短，因此在理解因果关系方面存在重大问题，并且在当前气候模式中如何代表许多重要过程方面存在相当大的不确定性。WISHBONE将利用新的先进气候模拟和预报系统，在了解北大西洋副极地对更广泛的北大西洋海盆的影响方面取得进展。它还将测试与了解亚极地北大西洋热量损失在驱动整个流域变化中的具体作用有关的具体假设，包括表面异常在驱动风模式中的作用。WISHBONE是阅读大学国家大气科学中心、南安普顿国家海洋学中心、牛津大学和英国南安普顿大学之间的合作项目，和美国国家大气研究中心

项目成果

CMIP6 skill at predicting interannual to multi-decadal summer monsoon precipitation variability

• DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/acea96
• 发表时间: 2023-07
• 期刊: Environmental Research Letters
• 影响因子: 6.7
• 作者: P. Monerie;J. Robson;Cassien D Ndiaye;Cenyao Song;A. Turner

North Atlantic Response to Observed North Atlantic Oscillation Surface Heat Flux in Three Climate Models

北大西洋对三种气候模型中观测到的北大西洋涛动表面热通量的响应

• DOI: 10.1175/jcli-d-23-0301.1
• 发表时间: 2024
• 期刊: Journal of Climate
• 影响因子: 4.9
• 作者: Kim W

Early-winter North Atlantic low-level jet latitude biases in climate models: implications for simulated regional atmosphere-ocean linkages

气候模型中的初冬北大西洋低空急流纬度偏差：对模拟区域大气-海洋联系的影响

• DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/ac417f
• 发表时间: 2021
• 期刊: Environmental Research Letters
• 影响因子: 6.7
• 作者: Bracegirdle T

Decadal predictability of the North Atlantic eddy-driven jet in winter

冬季北大西洋涡流驱动急流的十年可预测性

• DOI: 10.1002/essoar.10512819.1
• 发表时间: 2022
• 作者: Marcheggiani A

Coupled climate response to Atlantic Multidecadal Variability in a multi-model multi-resolution ensemble

• DOI: 10.1007/s00382-022-06157-9
• 发表时间: 2022-02-07
• 期刊: CLIMATE DYNAMICS
• 影响因子: 4.6
• 作者: Hodson, Daniel L. R.;Bretonniere, Pierre-Antoine;Senan, Retish
• 通讯作者: Senan, Retish