Wider impacts of Subpolar North Atlantic decadal variability on the ocean and atmosphere (WISHBONE)

北大西洋副极地年代际变率对海洋和大气的更广泛影响（WISHBONE）

基本信息

批准号：
NE/T013516/1
负责人：
Jon Robson
金额：
$ 45.4万
依托单位：
University of Reading
依托单位国家：
英国
项目类别：
Research Grant
财政年份：
2020
资助国家：
英国
起止时间：
2020 至无数据
项目状态：
未结题

来源：
https://gtr.ukri.org/projects?ref=NE%2FT013516%2F1
关键词：
Wider impacts Subpolar North Atlantic

项目摘要

The Subpolar North Atlantic (SNA), which is the region of the Atlantic Ocean between 45-65N latitude, is a highly variable region. Surface temperatures and surface salinity here have varied on a range of time-scales, but the changes are dominated by large and slow changes on decadal or longer timescales. This decadal timescale variability appears to form a key component of a larger climate mode, the Atlantic Multidecadal Variability, which has been linked to a broad range of important climate impacts, including rainfall in the North African and south Asian monsoons, floods and droughts over Europe and North America, and the number of hurricanes. The SNA is also one of the most predictable places on Earth at decadal timescales, which suggests the potential for improved predictions of regional climate and high-impact weather years ahead. However, the origins of this variability in the SNA, and the processes controlling its impacts, are far from fully understood. There is significant evidence to suggest that anomalous heat loss from the subpolar North Atlantic Ocean to the atmosphere can instigate a cascade of changes across the North Atlantic basin in both the ocean and atmosphere. For example, changes in the SNA can change the strength of the ocean circulation to the south, affect the northward transport of heat and freshwater in the North Atlantic, and subsequently affect the upper ocean temperatures and salinity across the whole North Atlantic basin, and into the Arctic. Changes in the subpolar North Atlantic surface temperature are also thought to affect the atmospheric circulation - i.e. wind patterns - in both summer and winter. However, observational records are very short, and so there are significant problems with understanding causality, and considerable uncertainty about how well many of the important processes are represented in current climate models. WISHBONE will make use of new advanced climate simulations and forecast systems to make progress in understanding the impact of the subpolar North Atlantic on the wider North Atlantic basin. It will also test specific hypotheses related to understanding the specific role of heat loss over the subpolar North Atlantic in driving changes throughout the basin including the role of surface anomalies in driving wind patterns. WISHBONE is a collaboration between the National Centre for Atmospheric Science at the University of Reading, The National Oceanography Centre Southampton, The University of Oxford, and The University of Southampton from the U.K., and The National Center for Atmospheric Research, from the U.S.

北大西洋亚北大西洋（SNA）是大西洋45-65n纬度之间的区域，是一个高度可变的区域。这里的表面温度和表面盐度在一系列时间尺度上有所不同，但是这些变化以年年或更长的时间尺度的较大而缓慢的变化为主。这种十年时间尺度的可变性似乎构成了更大的气候模式的关键组成部分，即大西洋多年代变化，它与广泛的重要气候影响有关，包括北非和南亚季风，洪水和欧洲和北美的洪水和干旱，以及hurricanes的数量。 SNA也是十年时间尺度上地球上最可预测的地方之一，这表明有可能改善未来区域气候和高影响力天气的预测。但是，这种变异性在SNA中的起源以及控制其影响的过程的起源远非充分理解。有大量的证据表明，从北大西洋下极到大气的异常热量损失可以激发海洋和大气中北大西洋盆地的一系列变化。例如，SNA的变化可以改变海洋循环的强度向南，影响北大西洋上的热和淡水的北部运输，然后影响整个北大西洋盆地的海洋温度和盐度，并进入北极地区。在夏季和冬季，北大西洋表面温度的变化也被认为会影响大气循环（即风模式）。但是，观察性记录非常短，因此理解因果关系存在重大问题，并且关于当前气候模型中许多重要过程的表现如何。 Wishbone将利用新的高级气候模拟和预测系统，以了解北大西洋亚北大西洋对北大西洋盆地的影响方面的进展。它还将检验与了解北大西洋亚北大西洋上热量损失在整个盆地变化中的特定作用有关的特定假设，包括表面异常在驱动风模式中的作用。 Wishbone是雷丁大学国家大气科学中心，南安普敦国家海洋学中心，牛津大学的国家大气科学中心与英国南安普敦大学与美国国家大气研究中心的合作。