Arctic Community Resilience to Boreal Environmental change: Assessing Risks from fire and disease (ACRoBEAR)

北极社区对北方环境变化的适应能力：评估火灾和疾病的风险（ACRoBEAR）

• 批准号: NE/T013672/1
• 负责人: Steve Arnold
• 金额: $ 57.49万
• 依托单位: University of Leeds
• 依托单位国家: 英国
• 项目类别: Research Grant
• 财政年份: 2020
• 资助国家: 英国
• 起止时间: 2020 至 无数据
• 项目状态: 未结题
• 来源: https://gtr.ukri.org/projects?ref=NE%2FT013672%2F1
• 关键词: Arctic; Community; Resilience; Boreal; Environmental

The goal of ACRoBEAR is to predict and understand health risks from wildfire air pollution and natural-focal disease at high latitudes, under rapid Arctic climate change, and resilience and adaptability of communities across the region to these risks. This will be achieved through integrating satellite and in-situ observations, modelling, health data and knowledge, and community knowledge and stakeholder dialogue.The Arctic has warmed rapidly over recent decades, at around twice the rate of global mean temperature increases, resulting in rapid changes to the high latitude Earth system. Changes in the high latitude terrestrial environment include observed increases in temperature extremes and precipitation patterns, which are leading to increasing trends in boreal wildfire and changes in the distribution of disease-carrying vectors, with evidence for emerging interactions between these changing risks. Recent years (including 2019) have seen unprecedented fire activity at Arctic latitudes, leading to unhealthy air quality in high latitude towns and cities. Vector-borne disease occurrence in these regions is also changing in response to rapid changes in temperature and moisture. Moreover, fire activity is intrinsically linked to changes in vector-borne disease risk through changing the habitat conditions for vectors and their hosts. Environmental, social, and governance factors specific to high latitudes hamper our current ability to understand community resilience and response to these changing risks. ACRoBEAR will tackle these urgent issues in the most rapidly warming region of the planet.To address these research challenges, ACRoBEAR brings together a diverse, international, interdisciplinary team of world-leading research groups and collaborators. The project will benefit from two-way dialogue with community groups and stakeholders throughout, across three key regions (Alaska, Eastern Siberia, Sweden). These groups will take an active part in co-design of specific research deliverables, and contribute local and indigenous knowledge to the development of new understanding within the project. ACRoBEAR aims to connect natural science with local community and stakeholder priorities, and to integrate natural science with local community knowledge and understanding. The ACRoBEAR team comprises world-leading experts in air pollution, climate science, natural-focal disease, social science and governance, landscape fire science, and health science, from across four European countries, Russia, and the United States. The unique interdisciplinary team will allow an end-to-end state-of-the art assessment of community resilience to changes in risk due to wildfire and natural-focal disease at high latitudes as a result of rapid Arctic warming. The planned workflow exploits cross-disciplinary collaboration and knowledge transfer to deliver integrated outcomes.ACRoBEAR will benefit a broad range of local and national-level stakeholders, including local communities, government, health and forestry agencies, and local and national policy makers. ACRoBEAR will deliver substantial impact on local communities, policy makers and health agencies in Arctic nations. Impact will result from providing new understanding to enable implementation of robust measures for mitigating harmful health impacts due to changes in high latitude wildfire and natural-focal disease and development of policy options to enable adaptation and increase resilience, tailored to regional communities and governance structures. The key legacy impact will be a series of web-based data tools and resources, carefully tailored to community and stakeholder needs via continual two-way dialogue throughout the project.

ACRoBEAR的目标是预测和了解在北极快速气候变化下高纬度地区野火空气污染和自然疫源性疾病的健康风险，以及该地区社区对这些风险的恢复力和适应性。这将通过整合卫星和实地观测、建模、健康数据和知识以及社区知识和利益攸关方对话来实现。近几十年来，北极迅速升温，升温速度约为全球平均气温上升速度的两倍，导致高纬度地球系统迅速变化。高纬度陆地环境的变化包括观测到的极端温度和降水模式的增加，这导致北方野火的趋势增加，并导致疾病传播媒介的分布发生变化，有证据表明这些不断变化的风险之间正在出现相互作用。近年来（包括2019年），北极地区发生了前所未有的火灾活动，导致高纬度城镇的空气质量不健康。这些地区病媒传播疾病的发生率也随着温度和湿度的迅速变化而变化。此外，火灾活动通过改变病媒及其宿主的生境条件，与病媒传播疾病风险的变化有着内在的联系。高纬度地区特有的环境、社会和治理因素阻碍了我们目前理解社区复原力和应对这些不断变化的风险的能力。ACRoBEAR将在地球上变暖最快的地区解决这些紧迫的问题。为了解决这些研究挑战，ACRoBEAR汇集了世界领先的研究小组和合作者组成的多元化，国际化，跨学科的团队。该项目将受益于与三个关键地区（阿拉斯加、东西伯利亚、瑞典）的社区团体和利益攸关方的双向对话。这些小组将积极参与具体研究成果的共同设计，并为在项目范围内发展新的理解贡献当地和土著知识。ACRoBEAR旨在将自然科学与当地社区和利益相关者的优先事项联系起来，并将自然科学与当地社区的知识和理解结合起来。ACRoBEAR团队由来自四个欧洲国家、俄罗斯和美国的空气污染、气候科学、自然疫源性疾病、社会科学和治理、景观火灾科学和健康科学领域的世界领先专家组成。独特的跨学科团队将允许对社区对北极快速变暖导致的高纬度野火和自然疫源性疾病风险变化的适应能力进行端到端的最先进评估。计划的工作流程利用跨学科合作和知识转移来提供综合成果。ACRoBEAR将使广泛的地方和国家一级利益攸关方受益，包括地方社区、政府、卫生和林业机构以及地方和国家决策者。ACRoBEAR将对北极国家的当地社区、政策制定者和卫生机构产生重大影响。通过提供新的认识，使人们能够实施强有力的措施，减轻高纬度野火和自然疫源性疾病变化对健康的有害影响，并根据区域社区和治理结构制定政策选项，使人们能够适应和提高复原力，将产生影响。关键的遗留影响将是一系列基于网络的数据工具和资源，通过整个项目的持续双向对话，根据社区和利益攸关方的需求精心定制。

项目成果

Reviews and syntheses: Arctic fire regimes and emissions in the 21st century

• DOI: 10.5194/bg-18-5053-2021
• 发表时间: 2021-09
• 期刊: Biogeosciences
• 影响因子: 4.9
• 作者: J. McCarty;J. Aalto;Ville-Veikko Paunu;S. Arnold;S. Eckhardt;Z. Klimont;J. Fain;N. Evangeliou-

Public Health Measures to Address the Impact of Climate Change on Population Health-Proceedings from a Stakeholder Workshop.

• DOI: 10.3390/ijerph192013665
• 发表时间: 2022-10-21
• 期刊: INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH AND PUBLIC HEALTH
• 作者: Jabakhanji, Samira Barbara;Arnold, Stephen Robert;Aunan, Kristin;Chersich, Matthew Francis;Jakobsson, Kristina;McGushin, Alice;Kelly, Ina;Roche, Niall;Stauffer, Anne;Stanistreet, Debbi
• 通讯作者: Stanistreet, Debbi

Model evaluation of short-lived climate forcers for the Arctic Monitoring and Assessment Programme: a multi-species, multi-model study

北极监测和评估计划短期气候驱动力的模型评估：多物种、多模型研究

• DOI: 10.5194/acp-22-5775-2022
• 发表时间: 2022
• 期刊: Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics
• 影响因子: 6.3
• 作者: Whaley C

Clean air policies are key for successfully mitigating Arctic warming

清洁空气政策是成功缓解北极变暖的关键

• DOI: 10.1038/s43247-022-00555-x
• 发表时间: 2022
• 期刊: Communications Earth & Environment
• 影响因子: 7.9
• 作者: Von Salzen K

Arctic tropospheric ozone: assessment of current knowledge and model performance

• DOI: 10.5194/acp-23-637-2023
• 发表时间: 2023-01
• 期刊: Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics
• 影响因子: 6.3
• 作者: C. Whaley;K. Law;J. Hjorth;H. Skov;R. Stephen;Arnold;J. Langner;J. Pernov;R. Chien;J. Christensen;M. Deushi;Xinyi Dong;G. Faluvegi;M. Flanner;J. Fu;Michael;Gauss;U. Im;L. Marelle;T. Onishi;N. Oshima;D. Plummer;L. Pozzoli;Jean-Christophe Raut;R. Skeie;M. Thomas;Kostas;Tsigaridis;S. Tsyro;S. Turnock;K. Salzen;D. Tarasick