Developing an Urban Heat Resilience Plan for Bristol - priorities for tackling heat vulnerability to protect health and reduce harm

在英国，气候变化导致气温升高和极端高温事件的发生，给社会带来了多重风险，尤其是那些最脆弱的群体。影响包括与热有关的死亡人数增加和工作场所生产力下降。减少这些影响的方法包括对建筑物进行改造，通过绿色空间减少城市热岛，以及更好的热浪医疗规划。为了成功地建立复原力，需要详细了解原因以及风险如何在空间上变化；这可以通过制定热脆弱性指数（HVI）来实现，该指数说明了在哪里以及为什么，人和基础设施面临的风险最大。HVI开发过程的复杂性和一些所需数据的稀缺性导致了HVI的局限性。一般来说，这项工作是由学术或行业专家完成的。该项目由布里斯托尔市议会（BCC）和来自廷德尔中心的夏洛特·布朗合作完成；其主要目标是为布里斯托尔制定HVI和随后的热恢复计划（HRP）。这将建立在该研究人员先前的工作的基础上，简化和精简开发人类免疫缺陷病毒的过程，使地方当局等非专家更容易获得它。最后，嵌入式研究人员将利用日常接触和具体参与事件，充分了解和定义地方当局在城市热风险空间中的角色和需求。HVI将纳入多种已知的导致热风险的因素：城市热岛、建筑特征和社会因素。将使用地理信息系统软件对这些风险进行描述、量化和绘制地图，产生可视化辅助工具，使人们能够了解风险的变化。1. 为了了解城市热岛的影响，将整理室外温度数据、土地利用和土地覆盖特征。由于布里斯托尔缺乏空间密集的气温数据，这些特征将与预定义的统计模型一起使用，以产生空间密集的合成气温数据。2. 已知会增加或减少其过热可能性的建筑物特征，如年龄、朝向、建筑类型，将用于分析建筑环境带来的风险。3. 将使用改变人类易受热风险影响的指标，如年龄、已有疾病、贫困指标。所有因素将在不同的空间尺度上平均并绘制地图。然后可以识别和分析风险的空间模式和热点。将使用归一化和排序方法来量化综合风险。这将在一份热脆弱性报告中进行总结，该报告突出了这些地区最脆弱的地点和最突出的热风险原因。热应激是一个复杂的问题，涉及许多影响交通、能源和规划等部门的政策领域。因此，理事会内部的责任由一系列部门承担。在研究过程中，将使用焦点小组与这些团队进行接触和合作。这将确保研究涵盖所有相关方面，并旨在满足尽可能广泛的需求。在人类健康评估完成后，焦点小组将再次用于共同制定人类健康规划。这种共同发展研究的方法既利用了学术知识，也利用了委员会在政策和实际实施方面的专业知识。HRP将通过确定若干适应计划及其实施途径，指导布里斯托尔在长期和短期内建立抗热能力。然后将在BCC之外广泛传播艾滋病毒和HRP，以最大限度地利用它们。计划将这两项产出纳入应续订的有关政策和战略计划。最后，将向学术听众散发结果，突出结果，并反映过程和地方当局的作用。

In the UK climate change is resulting in increases in temperature and the occurrence of extreme heat events, causing multiple risks for society, particularly those most vulnerable. Impacts include increases in heat-related deaths and decreased workplace productivity. Approaches to reducing these impacts include adaptation of buildings, reducing the Urban Heat Island through green space and better medical planning for heatwaves. To successfully build resilience, a detailed understanding of the causes and how the risks vary spatially is required; this can be achieved by the development of a Heat Vulnerability Index (HVI) which illustrates where and why, people and infrastructure are most at risk. Complexities in the development process of HVI's, and scarcity in some of the data required, has resulted in HVI's being limited. Generally, this work is performed by academic or industry experts. This project is a collaboration between Bristol City Council (BCC) and Charlotte Brown from the Tyndall Centre; its primary aim is to develop a HVI and a subsequent Heat Resilience Plan (HRP) for Bristol. This will build on previous work by the researcher to simplify and streamline the process of developing a HVI to make it more accessible to non-experts such as local authorities. Finally, the embedded researcher will utilise the day to day contact and specific engagement events, to fully understand and define local authorities' roles and needs in the space of urban heat risk. The HVI will incorporate multiple factors known to contribute to heat risk: Urban Heat Island, building characteristics and social factors. These will be described, quantified and mapped using GIS software, producing visual aids to enable variation in risks to be understood. 1. To understand the effect of the Urban Heat Island, outdoor temperature data, land use and land cover characteristics will be collated. Due to a lack of spatially dense air temperature data for Bristol, these characteristics will be used with pre-defined statistical models to produce spatially dense synthetic air temperature data. 2. Buildings characteristics known to increase or decrease their likelihood of overheating such as age, orientation, construction type will be used to analyse risks posed by the built environment. 3. Indicators which alter human vulnerability to heat risk, such as age, pre-existing diseases, measures of poverty, will be used. All factors will be averaged over various spatial scales and mapped. Spatial patterns and hot spots of risk can then be identified and analysed. Normalisation and ranking methods will be used to quantify the combined risk. This will be summarised in a heat vulnerability report highlighting the most vulnerable locations and the most prominent causes of heat risk in these areas. Heat stress is a complex issue which cuts across a number of policy areas impacting sectors such as transport, energy, and planning. Therefore, responsibility within the council falls across a range of departments. Focus groups will be used to engage with and work with these teams during the research process. This will ensure the research covers all relevant aspects and is designed to meet the widest possible needs. After the HVI is complete focus groups will again be used to co-develop a HRP. This approach to co-developing research utilises both academic knowledge as well as expertise on policy and practical implementation within the council. The HRP will guide Bristol to building heat resilience in the long and short term, by identifying several adaptation plans, with pathways to implementation. The HVI and HRP will then be widely disseminated beyond BCC to maximise their use. Both outputs are scheduled to feed into relevant policy and strategy plans due for renewal. Finally, the results will be disseminated to an academic audience highlighting results as well as reflecting on the process, and the role of local authorities.