Developing an Urban Heat Resilience Plan for Bristol - priorities for tackling heat vulnerability to protect health and reduce harm

制定布里斯托尔城市耐热计划 - 解决热脆弱性以保护健康和减少伤害的优先事项

• 批准号: NE/V01031X/1
• 负责人: Sarah Mander
• 金额: $ 6.47万
• 依托单位: University of Manchester
• 依托单位国家: 英国
• 项目类别: Research Grant
• 财政年份: 2020
• 资助国家: 英国
• 起止时间: 2020 至 无数据
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://gtr.ukri.org/projects?ref=NE%2FV01031X%2F1
• 关键词: Developing; Urban; Heat; Resilience; Plan

In the UK climate change is resulting in increases in temperature and the occurrence of extreme heat events, causing multiple risks for society, particularly those most vulnerable. Impacts include increases in heat-related deaths and decreased workplace productivity. Approaches to reducing these impacts include adaptation of buildings, reducing the Urban Heat Island through green space and better medical planning for heatwaves. To successfully build resilience, a detailed understanding of the causes and how the risks vary spatially is required; this can be achieved by the development of a Heat Vulnerability Index (HVI) which illustrates where and why, people and infrastructure are most at risk. Complexities in the development process of HVI's, and scarcity in some of the data required, has resulted in HVI's being limited. Generally, this work is performed by academic or industry experts. This project is a collaboration between Bristol City Council (BCC) and Charlotte Brown from the Tyndall Centre; its primary aim is to develop a HVI and a subsequent Heat Resilience Plan (HRP) for Bristol. This will build on previous work by the researcher to simplify and streamline the process of developing a HVI to make it more accessible to non-experts such as local authorities. Finally, the embedded researcher will utilise the day to day contact and specific engagement events, to fully understand and define local authorities' roles and needs in the space of urban heat risk. The HVI will incorporate multiple factors known to contribute to heat risk: Urban Heat Island, building characteristics and social factors. These will be described, quantified and mapped using GIS software, producing visual aids to enable variation in risks to be understood. 1. To understand the effect of the Urban Heat Island, outdoor temperature data, land use and land cover characteristics will be collated. Due to a lack of spatially dense air temperature data for Bristol, these characteristics will be used with pre-defined statistical models to produce spatially dense synthetic air temperature data. 2. Buildings characteristics known to increase or decrease their likelihood of overheating such as age, orientation, construction type will be used to analyse risks posed by the built environment. 3. Indicators which alter human vulnerability to heat risk, such as age, pre-existing diseases, measures of poverty, will be used. All factors will be averaged over various spatial scales and mapped. Spatial patterns and hot spots of risk can then be identified and analysed. Normalisation and ranking methods will be used to quantify the combined risk. This will be summarised in a heat vulnerability report highlighting the most vulnerable locations and the most prominent causes of heat risk in these areas. Heat stress is a complex issue which cuts across a number of policy areas impacting sectors such as transport, energy, and planning. Therefore, responsibility within the council falls across a range of departments. Focus groups will be used to engage with and work with these teams during the research process. This will ensure the research covers all relevant aspects and is designed to meet the widest possible needs. After the HVI is complete focus groups will again be used to co-develop a HRP. This approach to co-developing research utilises both academic knowledge as well as expertise on policy and practical implementation within the council. The HRP will guide Bristol to building heat resilience in the long and short term, by identifying several adaptation plans, with pathways to implementation. The HVI and HRP will then be widely disseminated beyond BCC to maximise their use. Both outputs are scheduled to feed into relevant policy and strategy plans due for renewal. Finally, the results will be disseminated to an academic audience highlighting results as well as reflecting on the process, and the role of local authorities.

在英国，气候变化导致气温上升和极端高温事件的发生，给社会带来多重风险，特别是那些最脆弱的人。影响包括与高温有关的死亡人数增加和工作场所生产力下降。减少这些影响的方法包括改造建筑物，通过绿色空间减少城市热岛，以及更好的热浪医疗规划。为了成功地建立抗灾能力，需要详细了解原因以及风险在空间上的变化;这可以通过制定热脆弱性指数（HVI）来实现，该指数说明了人和基础设施在哪里以及为什么最危险。HVI开发过程的复杂性以及一些所需数据的稀缺性导致HVI受到限制。一般来说，这项工作是由学术或行业专家。该项目是布里斯托市理事会（BCC）和廷德尔中心的夏洛特布朗之间的合作;其主要目的是为布里斯托制定一个HVI和随后的热弹性计划（HRP）。这将建立在研究人员以前的工作基础上，以简化和精简制定HVI的过程，使其更容易为地方当局等非专家所用。最后，嵌入式研究人员将利用日常联系和具体参与活动，充分了解和定义地方当局在城市热风险领域的角色和需求。HVI将包括已知的多种因素，有助于热风险：城市热岛，建筑特征和社会因素。将使用地理信息系统软件对这些风险进行描述、量化和绘图，制作视觉辅助工具，以便了解风险的变化。1.为了了解城市热岛效应，将整理室外温度数据、土地利用和土地覆盖特征。由于缺乏布里斯托的空间密集气温数据，这些特征将与预定义的统计模型一起使用，以产生空间密集的合成气温数据。2.已知会增加或减少过热可能性的建筑特征，如年龄、方向、建筑类型，将用于分析建筑环境带来的风险。3.将使用改变人类对热风险的脆弱性的指标，如年龄，预先存在的疾病，贫困的措施。所有因素都将在不同的空间尺度上取平均值并绘制成图。然后可以确定和分析风险的空间模式和热点。将使用标准化和排序方法来量化综合风险。这将在一份热脆弱性报告中进行总结，重点介绍这些地区最脆弱的地点和最突出的热风险原因。热应激是一个复杂的问题，它跨越了许多影响交通、能源和规划等部门的政策领域。因此，理事会内部的责任福尔斯一系列部门承担。在研究过程中，焦点小组将被用来与这些团队合作。这将确保研究涵盖所有相关方面，并旨在满足尽可能广泛的需求。HVI完成后，焦点小组将再次用于共同开发HRP。这种共同开发研究的方法既利用了学术知识，也利用了理事会内政策和实际执行方面的专门知识。HRP将指导布里斯托在长期和短期内建立热弹性，通过确定几个适应计划，与实施途径。然后，HVI和HRP将在BCC之外广泛传播，以最大限度地利用它们。计划将这两项产出纳入即将延长的相关政策和战略计划。最后，将向学术界人士传播评估结果，突出评估结果，并对评估过程和地方当局的作用进行反思。