Knowledge Exchange Fellowship: Forecast-based Action for Conservation (ForCon)

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Wildlife is threatened by climate change. One way in which climate change affects wildlife is by increasing the frequency of extreme weather events including drought, heat waves and storms. These weather events can cause wildlife losses which are detrimental for the proper functioning of our planet.Fortunately, many extreme weather events can now be predicted by weather forecasts. Weather forecasts can provide early warnings of upcoming extreme events, allowing people to prepare before the event occurs. An example might be: if a weather forecast identifies an incoming hurricane, homeowners can prepare for the hurricane by boarding windows and evacuating. These actions, taken before the hurricane hits, will reduce damage to buildings and will save lives.In a similar way, preparatory actions can be taken to lessen the effects of extreme weather on wildlife, but currently, this approach is not routinely used by wildlife conservation organisations. Why? It is probably because weather forecasts do not directly predict wildlife losses. Rather, there is a gap between the weather forecasts available and the information wildlife conservation organisations actually need. More regular use of weather forecasts could allow conservation organisations to better prepare for extreme weather and ultimately protect wildlife. This fellowship aims to address the under use of weather forecasts in wildlife conservation. Specifically, the fellowship will focus on a particular conservation issue, human-elephant conflict (HEC). HEC occurs when elephants eat farmers' crops or kill cattle or people when sharing water sources. Low rainfall, leading to drought, increases the occurrence of HEC. Working closely with weather forecasters and conservation organisations, the fellowship will adapt weather forecast information so that it is suitable for conservation organisations trying to prevent HEC. In this way, forecasts for low rainfall and drought can provide early warnings of HEC. The fellowship will also seek expert guidance from the Red Cross, who regularly use weather forecasts to plan their humanitarian activities. The Red Cross will help to develop plans outlining conservation actions to be taken based on weather forecasts.The fellowship will test the use of forecasts for managing HEC and will report the findings to other conservation organisations working to prevent HEC. Fellowship partners will also help in the development of reports to share with international governing conservation bodies. In this way, it is hoped that lessons learnt during the fellowship can be shared so that forecasts can be used by other conservation organisations to protect other wildlife around the world from extreme weather.